DraftKings Wild Card Salary Analysis and Picks: Daily Fantasy RSI
An Introduction to Fantasy RSI
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a commonly used financial technical indicator that measures the average gain during times when a company’s stock is trading up and compares it with the average loss when a company’s stock is trading down.
While the RSI is not predictive, an RSI above 50 is considered to mean that a stock is overvalued, while an RSI below 50 is considered to mean that a stock is undervalued.
This same indicator can be applied to DFS to help visualize salary momentum, and better yet, to help determine undervalued/overvalued players in relation to their salary.
With the playoffs finally here, it’s time to run through 6 games of RSI data to see where the value lies.
DraftKings Most Overvalued Players Based on Fantasy RSI 
Antonio Brown – $6100
The first-year Buccaneer has reached a season-high salary ahead of Tampa Bay’s Wild Card round matchup with Washington. After an 11 catch, 138-yard performance on Sunday, it’s no wonder Brown crossed the $6k salary mark for the first time all year. However, Brown accomplished his best performance of the season in a game where fellow Bucs WR Mike Evans suffered a knee injury, one that’s not believed to be serious, putting him on track to play in Wild Card weekend. If Evans suits up, Brown is quite unlikely to repeat his nearly 40% target share, and would likely drift back towards the roughly 18% target share he’s seen in his time in Tampa Bay. Brown still shows flashes of the elite-level player he once was, but with the other mouths to feed in TB, another 15 target game is rather wishful thinking, especially against a great defense like Washington.
Logan Thomas – $4900
Tied for his season-high salary and as the 2nd-most expensive TE in Wild Card Weekend, Logan Thomas has seen a meteoric DFS rise over the last month. Since Week 13, Thomas has averaged 10 targets and 68.4 yards per game, good for 17.4 DraftKings points over that time span. Even so, Thomas only eclipsed 10+ targets in an individual game twice this season, and both of those games took place without Alex Smith under center in Weeks 15 and 16. In the games Alex Smith has played, Thomas has averaged just 5.8 targets and 37.8 yards per game. As long as Smith suits up for Wild Card weekend, this is a premier opportunity to fade an overpriced TE.
Tyler Lockett – $6900
After a 12-catch, 2 TD performance against the 49ers, Lockett has seen a rather large $1100 salary increase headed into Wild Card weekend. With Lockett once again priced as a WR1, and as the 4th-most expensive WR of Wild Card weekend, this seems to be a case of his price getting well ahead of his performance. Lockett has had three incredible games this season, posting DraftKings scores of 40, 56, and 33. Outside of those games, he’s averaged just 11.0 DraftKings points per game, which would make him fantasy’s WR54, just behind TY Hilton and just ahead of John Brown. Lockett also hasn’t faired well against the Seahawks Wild Card opponent in the Rams, scoring just 9.5 DK points in their previous two meetings this season. With the weekend’s lowest total, this game is not setting up well for any big fantasy performances, especially from Tyler Lockett.
DraftKings Most Undervalued Players Based on Fantasy RSI 
Marquise Brown – $5400
Brown has seen a serious uptick in his overall consistency as of late, scoring 12+ DraftKings points in every game since Week 12, compared to just three performances of the sort in the first 10 weeks of the season. At his 4th-lowest price point of the 2020 season, Brown offers major upside as the 16th-most expensive WR of Wild Card weekend, largely thanks to his deep targets. With 25 targets of 20+ yards, Brown ranks in the top-10 in downfield looks, seeing a deep pass on 26.3% of his targets. With over a quarter of his potential touches happening 20+ yards downfield, Brown doesn’t need many passes thrown his way to break the slate, especially against a Tennessee defense that’s allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to oppose wide receivers. With a questionable target floor, Brown shouldn’t be touched in any cash game, but his upside makes him arguably the top WR play in tournaments.
Devin Singletary – $4300
As the 20th-most expensive RB of Wild Card weekend, Singletary offers a combination of snaps, touches, and salary relief that can’t be found anywhere else. In Week 17, neither Singletary nor fellow Buffalo RB Zack Moss played much, with both recording just four total touches as the Bills rested many starters in preparation for the playoffs. Looking back at the previous few weeks, we see that these two are in a full-fledged committee, both drifting towards a 50% snap share with Singletary seeing roughly 6% more targets but Moss seeing 11 carries inside the 5-yard line compared to just 6 for Singletary. Looking at expected fantasy points provides a modest edge for Singletary, who averages 11.0 per game as opposed to 9.1 for Moss. The edge here isn’t massive, but it’s clear Singletary is the, albeit slightly, more productive player for fantasy purposes, he just isn’t priced like it.
Corey Davis – $4800
Davis saw a surprising $1400 salary decrease headed into Wild Card weekend after a mediocre 11 target, 5 reception, 0 TD performance. Playing in the highest total game of the weekend and available for under $5000 for the first time since Week 12, this is a solid buy-low spot for Davis. Typically, the #2 WR on a run-heavy team like Tennessee doesn’t see much fantasy consideration, but Davis is one of the few #2 WRs with a target share over 20% and a strong average depth of target (ADoT) of 12.1. In fantasy football, we like to see two things from WRs: volume and deep routes. Davis offers both and is about $1000 too cheap. It doesn’t get much easier than this in DFS.
Kareem Hunt – $4800
Headed into Wild Card weekend, Hunt saw an $1100 salary decrease, leading to his lowest price tag of the 2020 season. Sure, over the last 4 weeks, Nick Chubb has seen more than double Hunt’s carries, but that doesn’t mean Hunt is anywhere close to out of the mix in Cleveland’s offense. Even over that same time span, Hunt still logged 2 carries inside the 5-yard line, compared to 4 for Chubb. Hunt has the added bonus of being the clear-cut receiving back, logging 7% more targets on the year than Chubb, something that should carry extra weight with the Browns listed as 5-point underdogs this week. In fact, Hunt has seen an average of 2.3 more DraftKings points when the Browns have been underdogs over the last two years, good for 14.1 per game. Assuming the Steelers can get out to and maintain a lead, Hunt could easily see more than 50% of the Browns’ RB snaps, and would undoubtedly pay off his season-low salary as a result.