FFFC 2012 Preview Part 2: Full NFL Breakdown

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2012-12-08 19:02:50

So we had a slight snag in our FFFC Preview series. Getting scoreboards of leagues you did not partake in that are over a month old is a little bit of a challenge. And suffice to say the $270 and $109 buy-in FFFC Qualifiers were a bit out of my price range. So instead of breaking down the lineups of every qualifier from those we are going to give them a shout out and then move on to a full, comprehensive breakdown of this weekends games.

I also want to make sure everyone knows CoreyG10 was also a $10 FFFC Qualifier who snuck in during the last week but I made the mistake of putting the higher buy-in qualifier(GreatDanes) lineup in the $10 FFFC Preview. My bad but congrats to Grinder CoreyG10 and good luck in Vegas!

The $270/$109 Qualifiers List

So I am sorry for not breaking down these lineups as thoroughly but if you want to learn a little more about the contestants check out Dan Back’s Handicapping the 2012 FFFC Article

• Week One: Rsqx2
• Week Two: Themoneyman
• Week Three: Crownies
• Week Four: Swiftywon
• Week Five: Lionsorbust
• Week Six: Salsadnzrca
• Week Seven: Nubbs519
• Week Eight: Doomsday70
• Week Nine: Trix
• Week Ten: DP47
• Week Eleven: GeneralV
• Week Twelve: GreatDanes

Grinders from the FFFC High Buy-In Qualifiers

We had four of the 12 high buy-in FFFC Qualifiers coming from Grinder nation:

Congrats and good luck this weekend!!!

The Sunday Games Preview

Much like the DFBC Preview, we have a comprehensive breakdown of the Sunday games that will be included in the FFFC schedule(so all games except Sunday and Monday night football).

Breaking Down The Match-Ups

The goal of this section is to take a look at how each team ranks against each offensive position and then try to glean some insight onto which picks might be popular in the FFFC finals.

Rankings shown beneath each team is their Fantasy Points Per Game Allowed Rank. They are in descending order, meaning the higher the rank, the more fantasy points they allow to that position. I.e. the Saints are #1 vs. QBs meaning they allow the most fantasy points to quarterbacks

St. Louis	AT	Buffalo
	AT
QB Rank: 17		QB Rank: 9
RB Rank: 9		RB Rank: 3
WR Rank: 23		WR Rank: 10
TE Rank: 10		TE Rank: 20

• Analysis:

Both teams struggle against the run a bit, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of C.J. Spiller. The timeshare with Fred Jackson makes him risky but he’s a huge upside play and might be a good risk for some FFFC Finalists. On the other side, St. Louis offense is unlikely to be touched but Buffalo’s struggles in all facets of the defensive game MIGHT yield a Brandon Gibson or Danny Amendola play(if healthy). I doubt we’d see any quarterbacks from either of these games though.

Atlanta	AT	Carolina
	AT
QB Rank: 26		QB Rank: 21
RB Rank: 12		RB Rank: 6
WR Rank: 30		WR Rank: 26
TE Rank: 13		TE Rank: 18

• Analysis

Clearly Carolina is vulnerable in their run defense but I don’t think Michael Turner or Jacquizz Rodgers offer enough value to warrant any FFFC plays. The Falcons high powered offense will likely be used with Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and Julio Jones making a few appearances but the match-up isn’t ideal. These guys might be a nice FFFC fade. On the other side, you look at a red hot Cam Newton and wonder if anyone is willing to roll the dice on him against him at home against a division rival. In Week 4, Newton threw for 200+ yards, 2 TDs and only rushed for 30 yards. Modest numbers for a guy who’s likely to skyrocket in price this week. If we see Newton, we may see a Greg Olsen play tied to Killa Cam, as the Falcons are 13th easiest against opposing TEs.

Dallas	AT	Cincinnati
	AT
QB Rank: 24		QB Rank: 25
RB Rank: 22		RB Rank: 8
WR Rank: 19		WR Rank: 28
TE Rank: 22		TE Rank: 7

• Analysis

DeMarco Murray looked pretty good in his return to action on Sunday Night against Philly, and the Bengals aren’t exactly world-stoppers against running backs. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple guys roll the dice here. The other interesting Cowboy play would be Dez Bryant who is red hot but will be taking on a pretty good Bengals secondary. On the other side, the Cowboys defense is too good for me to expect anyone rolling with Dalton but A.J. Green is always a viable option as a guy who could single handedly win someone $150K.

Kansas City	AT	Cleveland
	AT
QB Rank: 11		QB Rank: 15
RB Rank: 10		RB Rank: 13
WR Rank: 22		WR Rank: 5
TE Rank: 23		TE Rank: 32

• Analysis

At the risk of sounding crass, if there were to be a let down game for Kansas City after the Jovan Belcher situation I would expect it to be this week. They were riding on emotions in a victory against Carolina on Sunday but a full week of trying to focus on practice could mean we see more of the 2-10 Chiefs and less of the ones who stole a win in Week 13. Their defense is porous and Trent Richardson will likely be used in bunches. Jamaal Charles could also see a good amount of FFFC action but other than that, I don’t see much value in this game.

Tennessee	AT	Indianapolis
	AT
QB Rank: 5		QB Rank: 16
RB Rank: 1		RB Rank: 15
WR Rank: 11		WR Rank: 4
TE Rank: 4		TE Rank: 29

• Analysis

This one could have some fireworks and plenty of potential FFFC plays. Andrew Luck is definitely going to be used at least a few times as the match-up is JUICY. The biggest question would be which receiver gets handcuffed to Luck. Do you go with Reggie Wayne who has struggled of late and is a huge risk? Or maybe Avery or Hilton who have been getting tons of touches and blowing up scoreboards? It will definitely be an interesting decision. Then you look at Vick Ballard and it’s certainly possible someone rolls the dice on him against the league’s worst run defense. On the other side of the ball, you might see a high upside play in Chris Johnson, who went for 99 yards rushing and 18 yards receiving the last time these two met in 2012. Other than that, I don’t see any FFFC finalist putting $150K on the line with a Titans receiver or Jake Locker.

New York Jets	AT	Jacksonville
	AT
QB Rank: 23		QB Rank: 10
RB Rank: 7		RB Rank: 5
WR Rank: 25		WR Rank: 7
TE Rank: 8		TE Rank: 25

• Analysis

A battle of some terrible teams means we could see a defense play coming out of here. We could also see a deep running back sleeper in Montell Owens if Rashad Jennings and Maurice Jones-Drew can’t get on the field. The Jets also struggle against the tight end spot so if someone was desperate we MIGHT see a Marcedes Lewis play as he’s been hot of late. On the flip side, Shonn Greene might be worth taking a look at if Greg McElroy gets the start of Sanchize. The last question here is, what if Tebow is healthy enough to go? What if he gets named the starter? Oh boy that would be one hell of a storyline heading into the FFFC finale. Someone could wager $150K on the boy wonder himself. Overall, I doubt we see a lot of action outside of maybe a defense and running back in this game.

Chicago	AT	Minnesota
	AT
QB Rank: 31		QB Rank: 6
RB Rank: 31		RB Rank: 19
WR Rank: 27		WR Rank: 20
TE Rank: 11		TE Rank: 17

• Analysis

The Bears defense might be a decent play here, although they have struggled of late. Minnesota struggles a bit against the pass and Brandon Marshall should see plenty of FFFC action as he’s so often targeted by Cutler. Kyle Rudolph might also see some love as the Bears have had some issues against TEs and Rudolph is playing well in Percy Harvin absence. Other than that, I don’t really know where you can go in this one as both teams are fairly one dimensional.

San Diego	AT	Pittsburgh
	AT
QB Rank: 14		QB Rank: 32
RB Rank: 17		RB Rank: 29
WR Rank: 14		WR Rank: 32
TE Rank: 27		TE Rank: 26

• Analysis

Jonathan Dwyer is the only player I see being touched here. The Steelers defense has some potential at home against the idiocy-prone Philip Rivers as well. I can’t see anyone touching the Chargers players against one of the leagues toughest defenses against every position. Dwyer offers a decent play against an average Chargers run defense. Heath Miller is the last guy that could be used because of his high volume of red zone targets but if Batch is still at the helm I just don’t think he’s reliable against a stout D vs. TEs. If Roethlisberger gets the nod, I still don’t think it adds much fantasy value to the Steelers offensive guys either but Mike Wallace might see a play or two.

Philadelphia	AT	Tampa Bay
	AT
QB Rank: 7		QB Rank: 4
RB Rank: 23		RB Rank: 14
WR Rank: 17		WR Rank: 1
TE Rank: 21		TE Rank: 14

• Analysis

This one should see a good amount of action in the FFFC. Bryce Brown is bound to end up on a few rosters with the way he’s been playing of late. Tampa Bay is average against the run, but much worse than the Dallas defense Brown tore apart in Week 13. You may also see a Jeremy Maclin or Brent Celek play against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. On the other side, Tampa Bay is a hot bed of talent waiting to be exploited. Vincent Jackson will be seen a few times and Doug Martin should have a good game against a solid Eagles rush defense that got much worse by releasing Jason Babin. Will Josh Freeman be used? I would guess one or two guys have the stones to take him in a really solid matchup.

Baltimore	AT	Washington
	AT
QB Rank: 27		QB Rank: 2
RB Rank: 11		RB Rank: 21
WR Rank: 21		WR Rank: 2
TE Rank: 24		TE Rank: 2

• Analysis

Here’s a game I believe will keep many of the FFFC finalists without sleep many nights this week. Robert Griffin III, the rookie with so much upside and who continues to prove everyone wrong takes on a Ravens defense that’s only weakness has been against quick running backs. I’m sure someone will take RG3 but the match-up is far from ideal to touch anyone else on the Redskins with this much on the line. The Ravens on the other hand could be a great option, although they have been beyond terrible on the road this season. Joe Flacco and Torrey Smith both have juicy match-ups and will likely find a roster or two.

Miami	AT	San Francisco
	AT
QB Rank: 13		QB Rank: 28
RB Rank: 25		RB Rank: 32
WR Rank: 13		WR Rank: 24
TE Rank: 19		TE Rank: 30

• Analysis

Colin Kaepernick is obviously the guy you think of here against a weak Miami pass defense. Kaepernick struggled in Week 13 though and I’m not 100% sold on his value. The 49ers are at home so young Colin definitely gets a small bump up there. Other than that, I can’t imagine many people taking any Dolphins offensive players. The 49ers defense on the other hand will be highly used against a rookie, turnover prone QB. Look for a couple of TOs forced by the 49ers coming off a bad loss at the hands of a division rival.

New Orleans	AT	New York Giants
	AT
QB Rank: 1		QB Rank: 12
RB Rank: 2		RB Rank: 28
WR Rank: 3		WR Rank: 9
TE Rank: 9		TE Rank: 12

• Analysis

The last game on the slate is a doozie. Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw all become great options against this horrendous Saints defense. The Giants aren’t much better, and Brees could be a nice steal coming off a bad game with 5 picks in Week 13. The Saints will have 10 days to prepare for this one and the Giants play on MNF, so I can see New Orleans coming out a little stronger than NY.

Arizona	AT	Seattle
	AT
QB Rank: 29		QB Rank: 30
RB Rank: 26		RB Rank: 27
WR Rank: 18		WR Rank: 31
TE Rank: 31		TE Rank: 16

• Analysis

A divisional battle. Scratch that, an NFC West battle, meaning low scoring and crappy offenses. I wouldn’t touch anyone here but Russell Wilson has been much better at home than on the road this season. Still, the Cardinals D is stout against the pass and I don’t see a ton of value there. Maybe a Golden Tate or Sidney Rice play but not much beyond that. On the other side, I doubt anyone goes nears the Cardinals offense and the Seahawks defense at home at $5300 is VERY intriguing if Ryan Lindley is at the helm again for ARI.

FanDuel Week 13 Value Options

Some early thoughts on the salary structure on FanDuel heading into the FFFC in Week 14. Below are some guys who appear underpriced and should be seen are intriguing heading into the FFFC Final. I’m not saying these guys will be used in bulk but they certainly are some plays that could be high risk/$150K reward.

Quarterbacks

• Colin Kaepernick – $7200
• Eli Manning – $7500
• Jay Cutler – $6600
• Nick Foles – $5500 – This one is so intriguing to me. A dirt cheap QB option who tore it up in Week 13 against Dallas. He lands on the Tampa Bay pass defense, which is worst in the NFL. It would take some big cajones to roll the dice on Foles but at this price you could probably stack the rest of your lineup however you please.

Running Backs

• Bryce Brown – $6900
• Steven Jackson – $6200
• Shonn Greene – $6000
• Vick Ballard – $5600
• Montell Owens – $5200

Wide Receivers

• Mike Wallace – $5800
• Mike Williams – $6000
• Torrey Smith – $5600
• Donnie Avery – $5600
• Josh Gordon – $5900
• Jeremy Maclin – $5800

Tight Ends

• Jared Cook – $5100
• Dallas Clark – $5200
• Antonio Gates – $5200
• Scott Chandler – $5200
• Greg Olsen – $5500

If I Were Good Enough To Be There…

First off let me say that while I attended and covered the FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship, I submitted a lineup for fun alongside the event and yes, I would have won had I been in it. Let me also say that had I been in the DFBC, I would have tweaked that lineup 715 ways before lineups locked and it would have looked severely different. It’s easy to sit on the outside and say “here’s what you should do” but these guys are playing for life-altering money. The pressure is enormous and this will come down to knowledge as much as it will come down to the ability to keep a cool head.

NOW, the RG Employees got together and formed a free league over at FanDuel to have a little side competition during the FFFC and to see how we would stack up with the FFFC Qualifiers come Sunday. Here are the squads from the 6 of us.

The Ethan Haskell Winning Lineup

Dan Back’s Podcast Squad

Cal Spears “Only One Entry? This is BS” Lineup

Cameron MacMillan’s “I’m Seriously Considering Tebow” Lineup

Brad Owens’ “Who I’d Tell You To Take on Twitter” Lineup

Riley Bryant’s “I’m Just Gonna Hack this to Win Anyways” Lineup

Good luck to all of the Grinders in this weekends FFFC and be sure to check our live coverage of the event for T-shirt giveaways and more!!!