Fontaine's Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 10

by Bryan Fontaine (rookieblitz) Last Updated 2013-11-10 00:07:35

Each week I will recommend several players that are primed for big performances when you look deeper at the numbers and trends. With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football, simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone won’t give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups.

The best part of daily fantasy football is you can start fresh every week and learn from mistakes and missteps the week before. Let’s get to it. I’ve tried to go with some less obvious picks to give you some players worth using in GPP tournaments that will have a lower ownership percentage (sans Lacy).

Here are my picks for this week:

Note: Hit the ($) icon for player prices this week

Eli Manning – (QB) Giants vs. OAK

We trusted Eli Manning a few weeks back with his prime matchup against the (what we thought) hapless Vikings pass defense and he let us down. I’m trying to block that from my memory because this week because the Giants, winners of two straight, get ready to play an Oakland defense traveling across country after they were embarrassed by Nick Foles and the Eagles. Yes, that Nick Foles. Foles only had six incompletions total to go with his 406 passing yards and seven touchdowns in just over three quarters of action. It hasn’t been just one week that the Raiders have struggled defending the pass. Looking back at their last five games, well four when we remove Alex Smith from the equation, the Raiders have surrendered 333 passing yards and 2.2 touchdowns per week at a completion percentage of 68 percent.

You can be sure that Manning watched the game tape of this one and already has in mind which corners to pick on. Rookie D.J. Haden gave up three catches, 139 yards and two touchdowns to a combination of Riley Cooper and DeSean Jackson while Brandian Ross yielded 10 catches for 151 yards and four touchdowns in coverage. As a result, Victor Cruz makes a good start if you can afford his salary but Hakeem Nicks and Rueben Randle are riskier bets because neither has separated himself this season.

Of course Bad Eli could show up at any point and photo bomb this plus matchup. I’d be more willing to roll with Manning in a GPP and use his salary savings at other positions.

Projection:

Jake Locker – (QB) Titans vs. JAX

Jake Locker makes his second straight appearance in this space. Last week he failed to throw a touchdown pass against St. Louis, threw two interceptions and failed to top 200 yards passing. At least he saved a salvageable fantasy day with 10 yards rushing and a rushing touchdown.

Next up is an even better matchup with the hapless Jaguars who are coming off a bye week in which they lost their star receiver (Justin Blackmon) to suspension. This matchup sets up nicely for Locker. The Jaguars have allowed opposing quarterbacks in the last five weeks (Luck, Kaepernick, P. Manning, Bradford and Rivers) to complete 66 percent of their passes for an average of 255 yards passing and two touchdowns. If we remove quarterback kneel downs, Jacksonville allows quarterbacks to scramble on five percent of their drop backs. In that same five game span, quarterbacks have rushed for 92 carries on 12 carries along with two touchdowns. Colin Kaepernick had the most success (6-55-2) in a concerted effort to utilize his legs. Locker scrambled twice last week, bringing his total in six games to 13 or on 6.4 percent of his drop backs. He could easily top 30 yards rushing this week. The Jaguars should have enough fight in them to keep the Titans passing into the fourth quarter.

Projection:

Eddie Lacy – (RB) Packers vs. PHI

Eddie Lacy makes the list again and will be a permanent fixture until Fanduel increases his paltry salary of $6800. It’s a travesty that it is so low, but as fantasy owners we don’t need advanced metrics to know that he’s still a bargain despite whatever his ownership percentage will be. Now with the multi-week injury to Aaron Rodgers, the Packers will be more likely to keep Lacy with more than 20 touches. Especially in a game where the Eagles will want to keep their no-huddle offense on the field, the Packers would do well to slow the game down. For good measure, the Eagles surrendered 113 yards rushing and two touchdowns to Oakland running backs last week.

Projection:

Danny Woodhead – (RB) Chargers vs. DEN

The Chargers are a fixture in daily lineups because their offense is underrated and their defense is bad enough that they rarely have the game in hand going into the fourth quarter. Last week’s recommendation Ryan Mathews couldn’t see the field because Woodhead was needed in passing down situations and totaled nine catches for 77 yards. Mathews had just one touch in the second half and will be an afterthought in this game as well.

Denver should have their way in all facets on offense – leaving San Diego to keep pace or come from behind. My money is the Chargers will be throwing plenty in the second half. Through eight games, Denver has allowed the following:

Almost half the receptions to opposing running backs have come in the fourth quarter though the receiving yardage allowed is a bit more evenly distributed. It is worth noting that Denver has not faced a pass-catching specialist like Woodhead this year. It would not surprise me to see Woodhead with 10 catches this week, including some wheel routes down field.

Projection:

Donald Brown – (RB) Colts vs. STL

This should have been a game we could have circled in red pen for Trent Richardson to have a big game, but his recent struggles make it tough to trust him in your lineup this week. Although Donald Brown was a swing and a miss last week for the most part, he is more prepared to take advantage of the gaping holes that are likely to be available in this game. Watching Richardson run behind the same offensive line has been painful to watch especially when you compare Brown’s 6.3 YPC to Richardson’s 3.1. Could Richardson finally show his new team that he was worth a future first round pick? I doubt it. Plus, we need to consider that the Rams have been gashed on the ground lately with the Seahawks (Lynch and Turbin) and Titans (Johnson and Greene) combining for 43 carries for 216 yards (106 yards after first contact) with seven forced missed tackles and three touchdowns. Even if the two backs split time, Brown will have the better production. And if Richardson misses the game or is more limited than normal, Brown could be a top-10 play at a bargain price.

Projection:

Kendall Wright – (WR) Titans vs. JAX

Like Jake Locker above, Wright is hitting his stride lately and has a plus matchup with Jacksonville. The second year receiver from Baylor has received praise from Locker and the coaching staff for his game-breaking ability after shedding excess weight he carried as a rookie. Wright has played primarily in the slot (66%) through eight games, but recently has played more in two wide sets opposite Nate Washington. Just last week, Wright was only in the slot on 36 percent of his snaps.

We know that the Jacksonville defense has been a remedy for their opponents, most recently against San Francisco two weeks ago. In the past five games, the Jaguars have surrendered an average of 9.4 catches for 139 yards and a touchdown just to the wide receiver position. Here is the breakdown of each defensive back, or in Posluszny’s case as a LB/S hybrid on two targets:

When we split out just slot receiver targets against Jacksonville, it doesn’t get much better over the past five games: 4.6 receptions, 57 yards and 0.8 touchdowns. Wright has been close to breaking a big play recently and should find ample room after the catch this week.

Projection:

T.Y. Hilton – (WR) Colts vs. STL

I don’t normally recommend chasing last week’s points, but Hilton showed that he is more than up to task to take over for Reggie Wayne. Wayne had been used all over the formation, and Hilton played more in the slot this week than he had this year to date. Typically he had only entered the game in three wide receiver sets with Wayne moving inside, but now that is his job. Here is a breakdown by specific wide receiver position to illustrate his new-found versatility:

A good comparison for Hilton against St. Louis this week would be Golden Tate who caught five of his six targets for 93 yards and two touchdowns in Week 8. Most of Tate’s damage was done against Janoris Jenkins – a matchup that Hilton can anticipate this week.

Projection:

Brian Hartline – (WR) Dolphins at TB

Darrelle Revis is back – if he ever left. Through eight games, Revis has allowed just 16 catches for 116 yards and one touchdown. The lone player to beat him for a touchdown? Larry Fitzgerald.

I only mention Revis here because how it relates to the rest of the Tampa Bay defenders. Since about Week 4, Revis has played more man than zone and he’s been his normal lock down self on opposing top receivers. In the last two games, he’s held Steve Smith without a catch and held Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin to a combined two catches for eight yards. His running mate Johnthan Banks hasn’t been so lucky, the likely cover man for Brian Hartline if Revis takes on Mike Wallace. Banks has allowed 22 catches for 261 yards and two touchdowns just to wide receivers in coverage this year and 17 catches for 210 catches and a touchdown in the last four games since the had Revis play more man coverage.

That doesn’t mean that Hartline is for a big day, but given the turmoil the team has in the locker room and being without two fifths of their starting offensive line – the team will be passing often and Hartline will benefit. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Hartline with a top-12 finish in Week 10.

Projection:

Tim Wright – (TE) Buccaneers vs. MIA

Speaking of turmoil in Miami, the issues in Tampa Bay don’t seem that bad in comparison and this team nearly pulled off a colossal upset of the Seahawks on the road last week. Tim Wright has answered the bell in recent weeks, and QB Mike Glennon will need him this week to move the chains. We’ve seen Wright with surprising aptitude in the red zone, catching both of his touchdowns inside the 20 including one last week. He is also the clear second option in the passing game now that Mike Williams is out for the year. It all adds up to a good matchup for Wright at a value price given the Dolphins prior struggles to stop opposing tight ends this year (sans Gronkowksi 2-27). Jimmy Graham (4-100-2), Coby Fleener (4-69-1) and Jordan Cameron (9-108-1) are all similarly athletic tight ends that are split out wide more often than not. In Wright’s last two starts, he is averaging 4.5 catches for 53 yards and a touchdown.

Projection:

Antonio Gates – (TE) Chargers vs. DEN

Denver, like Miami, has also struggled to stop opposing tight ends. Three out of the last four weeks they have struggled to stop Jordan Reed (8-90), Coby Fleener (5-38-1) and Jason Witten (7-121-1). Gates is coming off a six catch for 53 yard performance on 10 targets at Washington. Although Keenan Allen is the presumed number one target for Rivers, Gates is still the second option on most plays and he has reinvented himself as a player running shorter pass routes rather than seam routes and gaining more yards after the catch than he has in years.

In the last five weeks, Denver is allowing tight ends to average 5.6 catches for 84.4 yards and 0.6 touchdowns with an aDOT (average depth of target) of 9.7 yards downfield. All of these baselines are better than Gates’ per game averages so he will be in for better day. I have Gates as the second tight in my rankings this week and he is only the seventh highest salary at Fanduel, building in one of the better values of the weekend in a game that will feature a lot of offensive fireworks.

Projection: