Fontaine's Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 13

by Bryan Fontaine (rookieblitz) Last Updated 2013-12-01 01:08:55

Each week I will recommend several players that are primed for big performances when you look deeper at the numbers and trends. With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football, simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone won’t give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups.

The best part of daily fantasy football is you can start fresh every week and learn from mistakes and missteps the week before. Let’s get to it. I’ve tried to go with some less obvious picks to give you some players worth using in GPP tournaments that will have a lower ownership percentage. When looking at salaries on Fanduel this week, I did not see many screaming bargains. That makes it even more important to find players that can meet or exceed value.

Here are my picks for this week:

Note: Hit the ($) icon for player prices this week

Josh McCown – (QB) Bears at MIN

McCown continues to be criminally undervalued across the industry, especially on Fanduel. He draws another start this week for Jay Cutler against the struggling Vikings defense ranked 29th against the pass this year. In Minnesota’s last five games, they have surrendered an average of 291 yards with two touchdowns, 0.2 interceptions and 29 yards rushing to quarterbacks. Each time McCown is a recommendation in this space, I always point out that he’s an underrated scrambler and the Vikings have allowed 13 QB scrambles out of the total 23 QB runs in that same five game stretch for a 6 percent scramble rate.

The other positive for McCown and the Chicago passing attack is the yardage the Vikings give up after each catch. During that five game stretch, Minnesota has allowed 757 of their 1,455 passing yards after the catch (52%). McCown for reference has 48 percent of his 1,106 passing yards on the season after the catch. That could be a positive net gain for McCown that could be enough to push him over the more expensive options this week. The fact that McCown’s defense is going to be at the mercy of Peterson means that he will be passing well into the fourth quarter to keep things close. Plus, it looks like left cornerback Xavier Rhodes could miss the game with a concussion and the Vikings’ alternatives are far worse.

Projection:

Cam Newton – (QB) Panthers vs. TB

Newton has been heating up recently and gets an enticing matchup with the surging Buccaneers coming to town. The Bucs have won three straight games after being left for dead but should pose no problem for Newton’s Panthers. Going back to the Bucs’ last five games, they have allowed an average of 250 passing yards, 2.2 touchdowns and 1.8 interceptions. The interceptions are a bit alarming but mostly attributed to Stafford’s four picks last week. Newton’s Week 8 performance of 221 yards, two touchdown and 50 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown is factored into that average. There is no reason to think Newton can’t replicate those numbers at home this go-around.

Newton’s main advantage over the field is his running ability of course. In that same five game stretch, only he and Russell Wilson are the only quarterbacks to scramble against the Bucs (each had three attempts). So out of Newton’s 11-50-1 line in Week 8, only three were scrambles. You can count on plenty more designed runs again this time around. Newton is not cheap this week but checks in as the 8th highest salary at QB on Fanduel – which presents a value opportunity because of his ability to post the top quarterback score of the weekend.

Projection:

Adrian Peterson – (RB) Vikings vs. CHI

Peterson is no sleeper this week but you would be a fool to fade him against one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL right now. Don’t overthink it or try to get cute with it. In Chicago’s last five games they have allowed 818 yards to running backs (5.7 YPC), including 372 after contact (2.6 Y/Co), eight touchdowns and 22 missed tackles. That averages out to 29 attempts for 164 yards and 1.6 touchdowns each week. Even St. Louis crushed them on the ground for 196 yards (7.8 YPC) between Zac Stacy and Benny Cunningham and excludes what Tavon Austin did on his fake end around for a touchdown.
Chicago’s short-comings play right into Peterson’s wheelhouse. He gets 70 percent (702 of 997) of his rushing yards after first contact (3.1) that exceeds even how bad Chicago has performed lately (2.6). Keep it simple and plug in Peterson this week.

Projection:

C.J. Spiller – (RB) Bills vs. ATL (Toronto)

Counting on Spiller this week takes a ton of faith given how badly his season has gone to date. Clearly his ankle injury sapped him of his game-breaking ability earlier in the season. He had a week of rest on the bye week and by all accounts is near 100 percent health (whatever that means at this point of the season). Fred Jackson still looms large, but not if we compare Spiller’s usage from this year to last:

His snaps are down an average of 10 per game (ankle) however his rushing attempts per game are right on pace with last year. Obviously we read the tea leaves from Doug Marrone this offseason and were led to believe Spiller could approach the 20 carry threshold most weeks. Regardless, even if his workload remains the same this season – if he is healthy, he can break off some long runs and present a huge value this week and going forward.

The team travels to Toronto to play host to the Falcons this week in what should be an indoor event with the roof closed. Staying out of the impending cold weather in the northeast will do Spiller plenty of good. The Falcons have been gashed lately on the ground and there is already talk that the coaching staff wants to get an extended look at some of their younger players. In the last five games, Atlanta has given up an average of 156 yards and a touchdown to opposing backs – which includes Bobby Rainey (30-163-2, 2-4-1), Marshawn Lynch (24-145-1, 3-16) and Andre Ellington (15-154-1, 2-8). The closest comparison for Spiller this week could be Ellington’s performance in Week 8. Given all this information and the Bills’ reliance on the ground game – I would do whatever I could to squeeze Spiller into your lineup this week.

Projection:

Alshon Jeffery – (WR) Bears at MIN

As I mentioned above, we know the Vikings defense is bad and that was before they could miss Xavier Rhodes this week due to his concussion. This game is turning into a perfect storm where you could stack the Bears’ passing game against Peterson from the same game and reap the benefits. Because the Bears’ rush defense is so poor, they are going to need to pass heavily to keep pace in a game that should be competitive into the fourth quarter. Ever since Jeffery posted a one-catch for 11 yard performance on five targets in Week 2 against Minnesota, he’s been one of the best receivers in the game and has averaged well over 10 targets the last few weeks. While the Vikings’ pass defense has been bad this year, they have been especially bad the last five weeks. They have allowed an average of 12.4 catches for 182.8 yards and 1.2 touchdowns during that span – including big games to Jordy Nelson (7-123-2) and Pierre Garcon (7-119-1).

Here is how the Vikings cornerbacks have fared in coverage by position:

¹ – 4% accounted for by other positions

This matches up well with Jeffery because he spends almost half of his snaps at right wide receiver. Not to mention that Rhodes is primarily the left cornerback. If Rhodes misses the game, his replacement could be even worse. Pairing McCown with Jeffery is more cost effective – though adding Marshall to the mix isn’t the craziest idea in the world for a full Bears stack.

Projection:

Michael Floyd – (WR) Cardinals at PHI

Floyd has been on a blistering pace the last few weeks and is now on pace to top 1,000 receiving yards on the season after a slow start. In the world of what have you done for me lately; Floyd is averaging seven targets, five receptions for 109 yards and 0.33 touchdowns in his last three games. He is no longer the sidekick to Larry Fitzgerald; we can argue they are 1A and 1B options for Carson Palmer now. Recommending Floyd this week is more about riding the hot streak he has been on than how good his matchup is.

Actually, his matchup is tougher than it would appear on the surface. For the season, the Eagles have allowed wide receivers to score 15 touchdowns in 11 games. However, they have allowed just two touchdowns in their last five games after allowing 13 in the first six games of the season. The receivers that have stood out against the Eagles during that stretch have been the No.2 options on their team: Terrance Williams (6-71-1), Rod Streater (5-98) and Jarrett Boykin (8-112).

Projection:

Cordarrelle Patterson – (WR) Vikings vs. CHI

Patterson has quietly taken over at the top receiver for Minnesota the last two weeks and his snaps are way up on offense. He’s made a name for himself on kick returns so far this year and now the first round pick is a focal part of the offense – even if they are manufacturing most of his touches on bubble screens and simpler routes. He is a far cry from the two catches he had for 14 yards against Chicago in Week 2.

Jerome Simpson has been relegated to a reduced role while Patterson essentially takes over the job. We knew the Vikings were giving him a few opportunities per game before this stretch, but the numbers are staggering when you look at his target rates on a per snap or per pass route basis:

Last week when he ran a pass pattern, there was a 40 percent chance the ball was going his way, and it is a healthy increase from his part-time role before. His 42 snaps were a season high in route to an 11 target, eight catch day for 54 yards. He had three red zone targets, catching two, and the third was a potential game-winning catch in the back of the end zone during overtime. I could not find a better minimum salary wide receiver on FanDuel this week that had the upside that Patterson does. He will be a fixture in all of my lineups.

Projection:

Zach Ertz – (TE) Eagles vs. ARI

I covered how poorly the Cardinals defended opposing tight ends last week with my recommendation of Coby Fleener (8 targets, 4-55-1) that worked out well. Fleener’s performance means it is worth exploring this defensive matchup again this week against Philadelphia. For the season, Arizona is allowing 6.4 catches for 86 yards and a touchdown each week to opposing tight ends.

Zach Ertz has been a part-time tight end/slot receiver so far this year but is showing signs of overtaking Brent Celek soon. In Ertz’s last three games, he has seven catches for 73 yards and a touchdown. That includes a zero catch, zero target game sandwiched in between the two strong performances. He’s actually a similar player to his former college teammate in Fleener, so this is going to be an under the radar matchup to exploit. Last week the Cardinals defended Fleener as such: Powers (1 target; 0 catches, Dansby (2; 1-16), Shaughnessy (1; 1-10), Mathieu (3; 1-12) and Bell (1; 1-17-1).
This Eagles-Cardinals game could have a playoff feel and makes Ertz a solid bet to exploit Arizona’s weakness against downfield, athletic tight ends.

Projection:

Ladarius Green – (TE) Chargers vs. CIN

Green has seen a steady increase in his workload for the San Diego offense and he’s gone from Hail Mary option to a sneaky under the radar play. Antonio Gates is still the primary every down tight end, though he has had to reinvent himself as an underneath outlet this year than the seam-stretcher he’s been for most of his career. That is where Green has come in lately with several big catches in the base offense. His workload has increased incrementally over the past few weeks but he is still about a 50 percent snap player with about 25-30 snaps per game. If we look at his advanced receiving metrics, we can see why he is still dangerous with this workload:

Just based on his target rate of 18.5 percent per snap, Green should get five to six targets going forward. We know that Philip Rivers likes to throw to him when he’s on the field. About a third of the time Green runs a pattern; he’s the primary target on the play. Throw in that Green is essentially an oversized wide receiver; he has the speed to run away from defenders. Now that San Diego knows what they have in Green, his usage is going to continue to trend upwards. This week the Bengals could forget about him if they choose to double team Gates or Keenan Allen in coverage.

Projection: