Fontaine's Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 9

by Bryan Fontaine (rookieblitz) Last Updated 2013-11-02 23:10:55

Last weekend’s recommendations were a tale of two cities. I’m still surprised RGIII and Garcon bombed as badly as they did, but the Broncos made Griffin beat them as a pocket passer and he wasn’t up to the task. Matt Waldman had a fantastic breakdown of RGIII’s struggles with screenshots from the game, check it out. Jimmy Graham was limited to a handful of snaps, though Marques Colston could not capitalize and Eric Decker couldn’t find the end zone either. Some of the other picks including Jordy Nelson, Eddie Lacy and Terrelle Pryor were value linchpins to your lineups.

Each week I will recommend several players that are primed for big performances when you look deeper at the numbers and trends. With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football, simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone won’t give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups.

The best part of daily fantasy football is you can start fresh every week and learn from mistakes and missteps the week before. Let’s get to it. I’ve tried to go with some less obvious picks to give you some players worth using in GPP tournaments that will have a lower ownership percentage (sans Lacy).
Here are my picks for this week:

Note: Hit the ($) icon for player prices this week

Jake Locker – (QB) Titans at STL

If you are like me and want to fit in several stud wide receivers this week, then Locker is your underpriced quarterback for GPP tournaments. A common theme with my quarterback recommendations is to find players that add rushing potential to their fantasy scores. Locker fits that bill this week.
He has been somewhat of a revelation this season working with the coaching staff to control his throws and reads. He has been over the 60 percent completion plateau that eluded him his first two seasons and surprisingly he is throwing downfield more than most quarterbacks. Among quarterbacks taking at least 25 percent of their teams offensive snaps this year, Locker has the third-highest aDOT (average depth of throw):

He has shown a rapport with Kendall Wright in recent weeks (more on that later) but let’s focus in on his rushing yards and the Rams’ defense. Locker is scrambling on 6.3 percent of his drop backs this season and 11 of his 18 rushing attempts were on scrambles. All quarterbacks facing the Rams this season have scrambled on three percent of their drop backs, but when we remove the pocket passers and only leave Kaepernick, Newton and Wilson – the Rams have allowed those three players to scramble on seven percent of their drop backs. Advantage Locker. With Robert Quinn (PFF’s highest rated 4-3 defensive end with 10 sacks) and Chris Long providing pressure on the outside, Locker is going to be more likely to pull the ball down and run in this contest.

Projection:

Eddie Lacy – (RB) Packers vs. CHI

In doing some initial research on Fanduel for Lacy, his ownership was in the 40-50 percent range in some early GPP and 70-80 percent in heads up and 50/50 contests. That is staggering, but not surprising given his recent production relative to his lower cost across the industry.

You can set your watch to Lacy’s consistency in recent weeks. The rookie back is averaging 24 carries for 99 yards in his last four games since returning from a concussion and is a better than 50 percent candidate to find the end zone. This isn’t your older brother’s Bears defense and they have been gashed by Brandon Jacobs (22-106-2 with 48 yards after contact and three forced missed tackles) and Roy Helu (11-41-3)/“Alfred Morris(player-profile)”:/players/Alfred_Morris-13576 (19-95 with 67 YAC and four forced missed tackles) in their last two games before the bye week.

There are two ways to look at Lacy this week. He will be highly used across the industry and you can either keep pace with the field by using him or by fading him. There aren’t many running backs I trust this week, so I am going to use Lacy and make up the difference at other positions. Just because a player is an obvious play doesn’t mean you have to find reasons not to use them.

Projection:

Donald Brown – (RB) Colts at HOU

This pick of Brown is semi-speculative, however, given the recent struggles of Trent Richardson is not unfounded. In the Colts last two games, they have split the workload down the middle into a full-blown committee when we example the snaps:

In Week 7 against Denver, Brown handled most of the second half snaps and is the more accomplished option in the passing game. Richardson is 3.1 yards and a cloud of dust at this point.

In a game that Indianapolis will want to win on the road to control the division – expect a heavy usage of Brown. He’s a sneaky option at a minimum salary and Houston can be run on. In the last four games, Charles, Stacy, Gore and Lynch have averaged 86 yards rushing a touchdown against the Texans.

Projection:

Ryan Mathews – (RB) Chargers at WAS

Danny Woodhead is a player I’ve seen used heavily in Thursday start contests, but I think the smart contrarian play is to focus on Ryan Mathews. The narrative on him is that he’s injury prone, is not involved in the passing game and he fumbles too much. He has dispelled some of those concerns as recently as his last two games. Mathews has 43 carries for 212 yards a touchdown over that span which puts him just outside the top-10 options at running back.

If we take out Washington’s games against Detroit (Bell), Oakland (Jennings) and Dallas (Murray/Randle), they have allowed an average of 27 carries for 138 yards and 1.5 touchdowns to the likes of LeSean McCoy, James Starks, Matt Forte and Knowshon Moreno Ball(player-profile)”:/players/Montee_Ball-16539. That includes 231 yards given up after first contact (extra 2.2 yards per carry) and has missed 21 tackles.

This game has one of the highest over/under’s of the weekend and Mathews converting first downs will keep RGIII and company off the field.

Projection:

Dez Bryant (WR) – Cowboys vs. MIN

In what is a weekly occurrence in this space, attacking the Vikings secondary is a smart play. Here is a recap what the Vikings allow to wide receivers only on a weekly basis. This includes “Jordy Nelson(player-profile)”:/players/Jordy_Nelson-12334’s 7-123-2 stat line last week:

Pulling in some of the intangible items makes an even stronger case to get Bryant in your lineup despite the top salary across the board. We have his emotional outbursts on the sidelines in a hard-fought loss and Hall of Famer Michael Irvin telling everyone that Bryant needs to be fed the football like Calvin Johnson. I bet Tony Romo heard some of that and a statement game could be in order.
Get Bryant in your lineup. I’m not saying he has a Calvin-like Week 8 game in him this week, but even half of that production is worth every penny.

Projection:

Vincent Brown (WR) – Chargers at WAS

I’ve already recommended Mathews (and Gates below), so why am I skipping over Keenan Allen to Vincent Brown? Mostly because the industry will overlook Brown and he has just a good of shot of producing against Washington’s weak secondary. Coupled with Allen on countless teams across the board because of his still undervalued salary, Brown makes a good bet at the $4500 minimum at Fanduel.
Secondary targets facing the Redskins have fared well in recent weeks: Decker 4-42, Jeffery 4-105 and Terrance Williams 2-27-1.

Projection:

Kendall Wright (WR) – Titans at STL

Kendall Wright has emerged as Locker’s favorite target in Tennessee and he is quietly developing into one of better playmakers at the wide receiver position according to the coaching staff. The weight he dropped this offseason has had a noticeable impact in his burst in the open field and Locker is looking his way often – with a target rate of 25 percent each time Wright runs a pass route and eight targets a week. Add in that over half of his 433 receiving yards to date have come after the catch.

Because Wright plays almost 75 percent of his snaps from the slot, he may not see Janoris Jenkins all the time in coverage. That may not be a bad thing since Golden Tate roasted Jenkins for five catches, 93 yards and two touchdowns in Week 8.

Projection:

Jordan Reed (TE) – Redskins vs. SD

Jordan Reed was one of the few bright spots for Washington last week and he was their primary threat on offense – racking up 14 of the 37 total team targets (38%). Most of his damage was done in the fourth quarter (5-61) with the game in hand, but production is production from a fantasy perspective.
San Diego has been stingy against opposing tight ends this year. Since Owen Daniels Graham(player-profile)”:/players/Garrett_Graham-12833 combined for nine catches for 94 yards and three touchdowns in Week 1 and Jason Witten (5-43) in Week 4, there have been no real threats. This is an instance where fantasy points against is almost useless. As I mentioned at the top, RGIII struggled mightily last week but his first read was normally Reed (see what I did there?) so we can feel safe about keeping him in our lineups. Reed is only second to Vernon Davis the last three weeks in FP scored and most sites are still giving us a discount on him salary-wise. Take advantage while you still can.

Projection:

Antonio Gates (TE) – Chargers at WAS

With the final recommendation for the Chargers going up against the vulnerable Redskins defense, Gates makes a fine play this week. His renaissance season continues with almost eight targets per week and his catch rate is the highest it’s been since 2010. A big reason for that is the coaching staff is playing to Gates’ strengths and not asking him to go deep down field. His 6.9 aDOT is almost three yards less than his career average of 10.0 yards before this year.

The Redskins have often lined up a linebacker or safety on a tight end this season with mixed results:

Fletcher and Riley are the most attacked defenders and there is no reason to think Mike McCoy will do anything differently with their scheme this week.

Projection: