From DFS to DraftKings Sportsbook Betting in New Jersey: Thursday, August 16th
The DraftKings Sportsbook is now a very real and completely legal entity in New Jersey. As originally laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to success in a sports betting endeavor.
Plays (Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)
Cubs/Pirates 8.5 Over (-118) 2.35 units to win 4.35
Nationals +110 1 unit to win 2.1
Nationals +108 1 unit to win 2.08
Tigers +155 1 unit to win 2.55
Angels +102 1 unit to win 2.02
Also added a Round Robin Parlay that cost a total of 2 units just for fun.
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6:45 ET Update
Tigers are up to +155 and, like I said earlier, with similar bullpens, I fail to see where the Twins have such a large advantage. Think the Angels have a pitching advantage too and should win this game half the time or more. Also adding another unit to the Nationals now at +108. I probably need to be more disciplined, but I can’t get an idea out of my mind once it enters and have fear of missing out.
Nationals +108 1 unit to win 2.08
Tigers +155 1 unit to win 2.55
Angels +102 1 unit to win 2.02
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5:30 ET Update
The Angels are throwing the bullpen at the Rangers. That might be better than what the Angels are doing (Ariel Jurado 9.2 K%, 93.8 mph aEV). The pen for the Angels isn’t very good, but isn’t terrible (4.28 FIP, 11.8 K-BB% last 30 days) and they can mix and match to get the best matchups throughout the game. The Texas bullpen is terrible (5.44 FIP, 10 K-BB%) behind a bad pitcher. No action yet, but I think maybe the Angels should be favored in this game.
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5pm ET Update
Francisco Liriano has been bad. Ervin Santana has been worse. The Detroit offense has an 76 wRC+ vs RHP and 91 wRC+ over the last week. The Twins have an 81 wRC+ vs LHP and 72 wRC+ over the last seven days. Neither team has a lineup that scares you. The Minnesota pen has a 3.79 FIP and 14.1 K-BB% over the last 30 days. The Tigers have a 3.56 FIP and 16.1 K-BB%. I’m not adding the Tigers as a play just yet, but at +148, I’m not seeing where the Twins have such an obvious advantage. I’m currently seeing the Tigers at least +155 in other spots. Will track to see if the DraftKings line rises as well.
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4:15 ET Update
Tanner Roark has the top strikeout rate and xwOBA on the board over the last month. The Washington bullpen has been bad, but Roark has gone at least seven innings in each of his last four starts. He’s probably one of the top two pitchers on the board tonight and will be facing a predominantly RH lineup. While Matt Carpenter is in the lineup, he did get hit in the hand last night and may not be at full strength. Luke Weaver isn’t bad, but is prone to blow ups, while this Washington offense is very disciplined (10.6 K-BB% vs RHP this year). They have four batters above a 120 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year in the lineup, four above a 160 wRC+ over the last week and four above a 50 Hard% over the last week as well. This is a tough lineup with one tonight’s top pitchers on the mound and they’re getting money.
Nationals +110 1 unit to win 2.1
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3:30 ET Update
Ivan Nova does not miss bats and has significant issues against LHBs. The Cubs have three among the first five batters. Jon Lester has an ERA and FIP above seven with 11 HRs allowed over his last seven starts.
Cubs/Pirates 8.5 Over (-118) 2.35 unites to win 4.35
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There was no article on Wednesday, but recapping Tuesday’s plays:
Orioles 4.5 under (+100) 1 unit to win 2 – L -1
Marlins/Braves 8.5 under (-105) 1.04 units to win 2.04 – L -1.04
Rockies/Astros 7 Under (-104) 1.03 units to win 2.03 – W +1
Phillies +114 1 unit to win 2.14 units – L -1
Day Total: 1-3 -2.04 units
Grand Total: 5-5-1 +2.69 units (27.7% ROI*)
Sides: 1-2 +0.6 units
Totals: 4-3-1 +2.09
*Counts one two unit free bet as $0 risked.
Let’s hope the accounting isn’t botched too badly along the way.
As strong as the luck was on Monday night, Tuesday it went in the opposite direction. We were never close on the Atlanta total, lost Philly by a run (right on Pivetta, wrong on Porcello), and Vargas allowed the Orioles just two runs through six until the Mets’ bullpen imploded…again. The Houston pen stunk it up as well, but we still covered by a run.
You may have noticed that the majority of the plays so far have been totals with just a few sides (and one of those was a late hedge). This is where I would expect to be the strength of the daily fantasy player to lie. Maybe even particularly in individual team totals, a few of which have been played so far as well. Perhaps they should be further split from full game total results.
Daily fantasy players are always projecting lineups against their team total. Although pitcher Wins still somehow mean something, DFS players rarely care if a team is projected to win or not. Players may look at overall money lines, but it’s really the team run totals that mean the most to us.
It may sometimes take an experienced MLB DFS player very little time to recognize if a team run total is far off. In fact, if a sharp MLB daily fantasy player transitioning to sports betting were to stick entirely to totals, might they already be able to book a steady profit without the addition of many other skills? And I suspect the answer might be the same for other sports as well.
Does this mean that the plays here will lean more toward Totals? I don’t know. That may be a fair conclusion to make. That’s not the intention, but it certainly makes some sense that, at least early on, the bulk of the research may lean that way considering that a full standard daily fantasy workload is being handled as well.
From a rooting perspective, it’s probably just plain human nature that one would probably rather root for an individual team instead of total runs/points or lack thereof, though a seasoned sports bettor would likely tell you they just care about whatever pays the bills without bias. As my father used to say whenever you asked what his favorite team was…”I root for my pockets.” Unfortunately, his pockets had a lot of holes.
Check back later once lineups start to roll out for updates.