From DFS to DraftKings Sportsbook in New Jersey: Thursday, September 20th
The DraftKings Sportsbook is now a very real and completely legal entity in New Jersey. As originally laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to succeed in a sports betting endeavor.
Please note that I do not profess to be good at this (as the current record now attests). Follow along at your own peril.
Last week, RotoGrinders launched Sharp Side, a new sports betting app. One of the earliest available features is the ability to track plays. Many more tools and features are to come.
—
Today’s Plays (Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)
Check back later once lineups start to roll out for updates.
Matt Shoemaker four or more strikeouts (-110) (BS) 1.1 units to win 2.1
Reds/Marlins 8.5u (-120) (BS) 1.2 units to win 2.2
Royals/Tigers 8u (-102) (FD) 1.02 units to win 2.02
Phillies +130 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.3
Rhys Hoskins HR + Phillies win +900 (BS) 0.4 units to win 4 units
CFB
Tulsa/Temple 54.5u (-110) (SH) 1.1 units to win 2.1
—
6PM ET Update
Going to add a play on the college total tonight for the reverse line movement mentioned earlier today. The line sits at 54.5 now with most of the action still coming in on the over.
Tulsa/Temple 54.5u (-110) (SH) 1.1 units to win 2.1
—
5:45 ET Update
All seven games are in the 7 pm hour tonight, which means all lineups for the night are already in and it’s time to get to work.
In Miami, we have an extremely negative run environment with one bad offense (Marlins) and one cold offense (Reds 53 wRC+ last seven days). Cody Reed has shown some flashes and his overall numbers aren’t bad. Jeff Brigham was decent in nine AAA starts (16.2 K-BB%). The bullpens are pretty awful, so there might be an attempt to cash out if they get involved earlier than expected, but only one book still had this total above eight.
In Detroit, we also have two poor offenses and at least one good pitcher with the winds blowing in as well. I am a bit concerned with the bullpens here too, but these offenses still may not be able to do much.
Lastly, Kevin Gausman has allowed eight runs over his last 10.1 innings and his peripherals before that were not nearly as strong as his results for the Braves. Vince Velasquez can be hit or miss, but we’re getting a decent price on this game and the line hasn’t really moved much despite action coming in mostly on the home team.
Lastly, Stars has a prop I like in this game. Rhys Hoskins homered last night and is in a sneaky good spot as a hitter who has shown more power against RHP, facing a pitcher who has been prone to RH power. The unfortunate part of this is that the Phillies have to win the game too for this win, but the odds are still tremendous. If he homers early enough, I may have some hedge room as well.
There may be an additional update if I have more football thoughts, but if not, this may be it for the night.
Reds/Marlins 8.5u (-120) (BS) 1.2 units to win 2.2
Royals/Tigers 8u (-102) (FD) 1.02 units to win 2.02
Phillies +130 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.3
Rhys Hoskins HR + Phillies win +900 (BS) 0.4 units to win 4 units
—
3 PM Update
Getting started with an early prop bet. The strikeout line for Matt Shoemaker is set at four or above. At a 20% strikeout rate, he’d have to face 20 batters. He’s reached 20 batters in three of four starts and at least four strikeouts in three of four starts with an a 12+ SwStr% in three of four starts. This confirmed Oakland lineup has a 22.3 K% vs RHP this season. I think we can get to four here.
Matt Shoemaker four or more strikeouts (-110) (BS) 1.1 units to win 2.1
—
Yesterday’s recap:
Cardinals -110 (FD) 1.1 units to win 2.1 L – 1.1
Cubs -108 (FD) 1.08 units to win 2.08 L -1.08
Arizona 3.5 Under (-1.08) (SH) 1.08 units to win 2.08 L – 1.08
Daily Odds Boost Parlay: Yankees, Pirates, Indians +200 (BS) 1 unit to win 3 W +2
Reds +164 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.64 L -1
Reds/Brewers 8.5 over (-114) 1.14 units to win 2.14 L -1.14
Odds Boost: Cole Hamels at least 7 Ks (+160) (BS) 1 unit to win 2.6 L -1
Mariners +178 (FD) 1 unit to win 2.78 W +1.78
Parlay: Padres and Dodgers +127 (SH) 1 unit to win 2.27 +1.27
MLB
Day Total 3-6 -1.35
Grand Total 70-79-1 -3.09 units
Sides 38-47 -2.7 units
Totals 30-26-1 +1.23 units
Parlays 3-5 -1.12 units
Props 1-2 -0.5 units
NFL
Day Total
Grand Total 4-1 +3 units
Spread 2-0 +2 unit
Moneyline 1-0 +1 unit
Totals 1-0 +1 unit
Parlays 0-1 -1 unit
CFB
Day Total
Grand Total 2-4 -2.4 units
Spread 1-2 -1.2 units
Totals 1-2 -1.2 units
—
Early afternoon mid-week day games are a big mess. Note to self to avoid them from now on. Two out of three on the daily odds boost parlay. The Indians allowed a single run to the White Sox and were unable to beat Dylan Covey. Hold that, this just in… Jason Kipnis Grand Slam in the bottom of the ninth to cash a three team parlay. The Reds inability to score a single run killed both the side and total in Milwaukee. Seattle came in as a big dog in a blowout to temporarily put the day in profit. The Giants and Dodgers came through on the later parlay to limit the damage from this next guy.
This will be the last time I ever mention Cole Hamels. He’s been the cause of nothing but misery for about a decade now. I’ve never gotten either he or Robbie Ray (his opponent last night) correct in a DFS sense, so why start now otherwise? I knew this going in, but couldn’t avoid the play given the circumstances. There’s no question it was the right thing to do, but four runs before he even got three outs. The Diamondbacks may have posted the worst lineup we’ve seen from a team this season and they thoroughly thrashed Hamels. He’s basically responsible for the entirety of the MLB season deficit above with last night’s performance.
—
NFL DFS content is beginning to overwhelm players by Thursday, so we’ll continue our romp through the RG NFL content schedule to highlight content and tools that can be both daily fantasy and sports betting useful. A lot of the in-depth RotoGrinders pieces for Thursday release are not yet updated by the time of this writing, but Wednesday night is rich in video content from the Pro Football Focus show and Rotoworld DFS Pick 6 that have been a staple of my DFS prep for the past few years and now my sports betting prep. In fact, I’m watching a replay as I write this article.
—
I haven’t even looked at Thursday’s MLB offerings yet, but we can talk a little bit about the Thursday night football games right now.
The Browns are a favorite. Currently three points on FanDuel, but with the Jets +100, it seems it could be reaching 3.5 at some point. If this is the case, I may consider the Jets because…the Browns are a favorite. The thing is though, they might deserve to be. Their defense seems legitimate at least. If you can’t tell, I haven’t decided on a side for this game yet, which maybe means I shouldn’t be playing one. Current wagering statistics show Cleveland taking in a bit less than two-thirds of the action so far. What I can say about this game with confidence right now is that I will be very unlikely to play the over unless things drastically change. I’m expecting a slow paced conservative effort from both sides unless one team is forced to play otherwise. That said, this game currently has the second lowest total of the week at 40.5.
The college offering is Tulsa at Temple with the home team installed as a TD favorite and a 54 total. I don’t know a damn thing about either team this year, nor have I read anything written about this game yet. There has been a significant drop in the total (five points since open) with action appearing to be split, though at low volume. Perhaps the day will bring us a gem before kickoff in either of these games, but I’m not enthusiastic about playing some football on Thursday right now.
—
MLB WS Futures
I mentioned on Twitter last night that if the Dodgers came back to win, I was going to play World Series futures on both they and Cleveland (after Kipnis’s walk off Grand Slam). I’d been considering doing both those things anyway. The Dodgers are at +600 (0.5 units), the Indians are +1000 (0.3 units) and I’m also going to be throwing a dart at the A’s +1600 (0.2 units). It works out to about a three unit cash on any win. I’ll record them here if this article still exists by the time they come due. All three on FanDuel.
There’s also the matter of Stars offering 100/1 odds on any NFL Championship future for $5. The obvious and boring thing to do here is wait until the last possible day (September 30th) and bet the favorite, which is currently the Rams 13/2.