From DFS to DraftKings Sportsbook Betting in New Jersey: Tuesday, August 21st
The DraftKings Sportsbook is now a very real and completely legal entity in New Jersey. As originally laid out in the intial article, the purpose of this piece is to decipher which daily fantasy skills translate well to sports betting. This journey will also be about acquiring additional skills necessary to success in a sports betting endeavor.
Please note that I do not profess to be good at this. Follow along at your own peril.
—
Today’s Plays (Favorites to win per unit – i.e. 1.5 units to win 1 if -150, dogs risking per unit)
Check back later once lineups start to roll out for updates.
Orioles/Blue Jays 9 Over (+106) 1 unit to win 2.06
Reds/Brewers 9 Over (100) 1 unit to win 2
Astros/Mariners 8.5 Under (-112) 1.11 units to win 2.11
Two team parlay: Diamondbacks -235 & A’s -225 1.5 units to win 3.11
—
7:15 ET Final Update
Some interesting happenings in the late games. The Angels are without their three best hitters tonight (Trout, Ohtani, Upton) in an NL park where Rene Rivera is hitting fifth. The DraftKings book has the Diamondbacks at -235, which is a bit higher than most other spots. I also love the A’s to dish out some punishment tonight again, but they are -225. I tried the two team parlay last night and it didn’t work. Let’s try it again.
In Seattle, the Astros are throwing their bullpen at the Mariners. It’s a very good bullpen and Nelson Cruz is out of the lineup. However, the Astros are struggling and I’m noticing a slight bit of reverse line movement here. Tough to side completely with the Mariners sans Cruz, but Leake is pitching well and while Altuve is back for the Astros tonight, Springer is out again. I’m going to side with the under here.
Astros/Mariners 8.5 Under (-112) 1.11 units to win 2.11
Two team parlay: Diamondbacks -235 & A’s -225 1.5 units to win 3.11
—
6:45 ET Update
It looks like my timing is terrible. The Tigers 3.5 Under has increased further to -129 and just as I was about to place a bet on White Sox 100, the line moved to -115 and has since moved to -117. Waiting was a mistake today. Just the two plays early. I will have an update after the Houston lineup comes out before 8pm ET. Some key bats are missing from lineups. I do have interest in a few spots.
—
6PM ET Update
We’re still waiting on quite a few lineups for tonight, but the weather has been updated. It’s still looking kind of questionable in Washington and the Phillies are now down to +106. Pass. The Braves are up to 4.5 runs (+110). I’m passing on that line as well. I do like them to win this game, but -129 on DraftKings is at least $5 more than I’m seeing anywhere else. Unfortunately, the price on the Tigers 3.5 Under (-122) has risen as well. That’s one I should have seen coming and played earlier. Passing above -120.
The other game I have interest in is in Chicago. Berrios hasn’t been pitching well and I expected the public to be infatuated with the shiny new toy (Fangraphs #15 prospect Michael Kopech). Poking around, it currently looks like the Twins may be taking in more bets, but the line has dropped since open. Will check in to see where we stand in before lock and then perhaps a bit later for west coast games.
—
5PM ET Update
Sal Romano gets crushed by LHBs. The Brewers have several with power in the lineup. Junior Guerra has an ERA above five with estimators above four and a half over the last month as well. He should be good for a few runs here too, while the Brew Crew should assault Romano. Getting even money on the Over here.
Reds/Brewers 9 Over (100) 1 unit to win 2
—
4:30 ET Update
I like the Braves with Acuna leading off and then five LHBs to score more than 3.5 runs against Ivan Nova, but not at -143. Another NL East team I’m considering are the Phillies +120. Vince Velasquez hasn’t been pitching well recently, but has a fairly substantial platoon split (45 points). The Nationals just traded away two LHBs they could have used tonight. They still have Eaton, Harper, and Soto though. Velasquez and Roark are two unpredictable pitchers, but the Phillies probably have a substantial bullpen advantage. There is some weather concern for this game too though. Let’s wait for an updated forecast.
Adding…I wrote up Kyle Hendricks for today’s pitching article. He’s a strong contact manager with an increase in strikeouts over the last month. A higher than expected ERA seems the result of some fluky BABIP. I don’t see the Tigers being much of a challenge and the Cubs have a formidable bullpen. Let’s keep Tigers 3.5 Under (-115) on the watch list as well.
—
3:30 ET Update
I’m going to try this again. The Baltimore bullpen is the worst in the majors by far over the last month and the Toronto bullpen is not too far behind (see Daily Bullpen Alert on News page). Dylan Bundy may be the most HR pitcher in the majors and Sam Gaviglio has completed six innings with three runs or less in just three of 17 starts. Bundy’s 9.7% Barrels/BBE is easily the highest on the board. Gaviglio has an 89 mph aEV. The DK Sportsbook currently has the total at 8.5 Over (-120). I’m seeing it already pushed up to nine in some places and since I think Bundy can go full boom or bust, I’m going to push it up to 9 Over (+106) myself in the Alternate lines section and take the plus money. (I even considered going higher for the better odds.) Just one unit tonight though.
Orioles/Blue Jays 9 Over (+106) 1 unit to win 2.06
—
Monday recap:
Orioles/Blue Jays 9 over (-104) 2.06 units to win 4.06 – L -2.06
White Sox/Twins 9.5 under (-1.21) 1.2 units to win 2.2 – L – 1.2
Indians -103 1.02 units to win 2.02 – W +1
Braves +114 1 unit to win 2.14 – W +1.14
Two team parlay: A’s (-210) plus Dodgers (-180) 1 unit to win 2.31 – L -1
Day Total 2-3 – 2.12
Grand Total 7-11-1 -3.56 units
Sides 4-4 +2.84 units
Totals 5-7-1 -3.4 units
Parlays 0-2 -3 units
Two of the three worst bullpens by FIP over the last month combined for 5.2 shutout innings in Toronto and the double unit bet on the Over is a loser by a run. Cleveland came back from a 3-0 deficit and held the Red Sox off in the ninth. Braves scored one in the top of the first and the score held (1-0). Rookie Stephen Gonsalves got rocked early and though the game in Minnesota had the same score as the one in Toronto to start the seventh inning, it felt like we were lucky to make it that far before losing the under.
In the late games, I mentioned I really liked the A’s to do some damage, but couldn’t find the line I quite liked enough on it (moneyline, game total, team total), so settled for a parlay with the Dodgers. A’s did their job, but never going to complain about not laying -200 or more. Just didn’t work out this time.
Bottom line is I’ll take the Baltimore pen as the main obstacle standing in the way of a nice night any time.
—
Considering the full 15 game slate tonight, I’ll make an effort to keep the commentary here short. I don’t want to talk about anything groundbreaking or even anything strategy related at all today, but I do want to talk about a dirty word we’ve been told to avoid for years. Despite the changing and progressive legal climate, I still cringe when I hear it due to the negative connotations.
It didn’t even start with daily fantasy. For years, poker players argued that their game (our game) was one of skill. As was daily fantasy afterward. Now, it’s entirely legal, but I still hesitate to even the word “betting” because betting is gambling and gambling is a bad, bad word. (So bad that I can’t believe I just typed it and completely expect most of this article to be redacted by the RotoGrinders editing team.)
Do I believe that sports betting is skill based? As much as I believe daily fantasy is and poker most certainly is. Sure, there’s always an element of luck on any given night, in any given game and the possibility exists to run bad for a long, long time. A lot of people are bad at it and some people do have problems. People with addictive personalities can lose a lot of money on skill based games. The odds even say that some highly skilled players could go broke with an extended run of bad luck. Somebody has to be the unluckiest one, but now I’m just rambling.
The original intent of my question is now that we’re allowed to use the word betting (in fact, I’m encouraged to use it here) is “gambling” no longer a dirty word either? Sports betting has always been a form of gambling. Here’s the thing though: gambling and skill aren’t mutually exclusive. There can be an element of both in some things. Guess what? You own stocks? That’s gambling…to some extent. Did you buy Bitcoin (or other cryptocurrencies) last winter? Dare you to tell me that’s not gambling either.
What does everyone think? With online sports betting and casinos now a real legal thing in some states and coming to more, are we allowed to say dirty words now? It’s been drilled into our minds as a dirty word for so long, is it as difficult for you to say as it is for me to type and are we going to be beyond that soon where all of this is more commonly accepted?