Home Run Derby - MLB DFS Community Contest: Friday, July 1st
Happy Friday, Grinders! Thirty home runs from Tuesday did just enough to tally home runs for some of our community members. However, those home runs proved inconsequential for our June contest. The winners held serve — we will get back to that — but we are ready to move forward. July brings a fresh contest where everyone starts with a clean slate. Who will open July with a big night? Let’s start with our winners.
Kudos to our winners from July! Hendo2132 is moving on up after a second-place finish last month. He captures solo first place this month with 12 home runs and two months of RG MLB Premium. dukefan197723 takes second place with 10 home runs and wins a T-shirt and hat. If you read this, dukefan, send me a DM on Discord with your name, size, and address for shipment. Finally, our winner of two weeks of Scores and Odds Premium is Sagn442 as he closed the month with eight home runs.
Congratulations everyone. We are wiping the slate clean for July but with only two months left to consider the overall prizes loom closer and closer. Regardless of performance in July, tally up as many home runs as possible to pop back in contention for the overall season prizes.
Reminder! Prizes were doubled for each month. Spread the word!
Rules, Tiers, and Prizes
Here are the cliff notes from the introductory rules and guidelines set forth in our opening article. If you want a bit more clarification, here is the first article with a more developed explanation for the contest.
In short, pick three players in the comments for tonight’s DraftKings Main MLB slate. You may pick one player from each of the tiers below.
Luxury Box – $5,000 and above
Promenade – $3,500 – $4,900
Bleachers – Below $3,500
You will collect home runs for every home run your batters hit that night. Selections must be made prior to lock time in the comments section. At the end of each month, prizes will be award to the community members with the most home runs. At the end of the season, additional prizes will be awarded to those members who put together the best totals for the entire season (ending in August).
The following prizes will be awarded to players based on their home run total for the month (April, May, June, July, August)
First Place – 2 months of RotoGrinders MLB Premium
Second Place – RotoGrinders T-shirt and hat
Third Place – 2 weeks of SAO Premium
The following prizes will be awarded to players based on their home run total for the entire baseball season (April – August)
First Place – One month of RotoGrinders Combo Premium
Second Place – RotoGrinders Swag Pack
Third Place – One month of SAO Premium
If you have any questions, please feel free to leave them in the comments or send me a message on Twitter.
Friday, July 1st MLB DFS Slate Notes
The MLB is putting forth a few afternoon games, leaving us with 10 games on the DraftKings Main Slate. Coors Field is on the slate along with two games in domes. Those domes could prove to be helpful given…
The weather seems to be of concern tonight. Please make sure to check Kevin Roth’s report prior to making your DFS picks and home run calls.
Both teams in the Coors Field game feature implied run totals greater than five runs. The Twins carry more than five runs at home against the Orioles. Also noteworthy, the Mets are projected for five runs against the Rangers at home. While Citi Field is a large ballpark, a wind seems poised to blow out of left field at a big clip.
Let’s canvas pitching starting with the worst HR/9 on the slate:
James Kaprielian, OAK, 1.90
Lance Lynn, CHW. 1.69
Michael Pineda, DET, 1.61
Marco Gonzales, SEA, 1.54
Aaron Civale, CLE, 1.35
Already, we see that this slate is not lining up for an early fireworks display. Our highest HR/9 is pitching out west as is our second in Lance Lynn. The Tigers game looks like the weather will be a concern. Let’s take a peek at the bullpen xFIP number for this season.
KCR – 4.59
ARI – 4.50
OAK – 4.42
COL – 4.31
PIT – 4.30
So, Oakland looks like an interesting target with the combo of the starter and relievers struggling this season. The Colorado and Arizona game might go nuts if the starters leave early in Coors Field. We might need to get creative tonight with fewer options.
Friday, July 1st MLB Home Run Picks
Luxury Box – Pete Alonso – 1B – $5,600
I am going to take a chance on a strong wind blowing out of left field on a very, very warm day in Citi Field. We don’t need to go over Alonso’s track record with power. Well, let’s do it anyway for fun.
Alonso boasts a .292 ISO as a card-carrying member of the 40/40 (FB%, Hard%) club against right-handed pitching. His 22 home runs are just behind Kyle Schwarber for second in the National League. The guy is a masher. Will he strike out? Yes. Will that matter if he catches one? No.
Alonso is +260 to homer on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Promenade – Christian Walker – 1B – $4,200
Here’s a fun fact. Christian Walker is just behind the aforementioned Pete Alonso for third in the National League in home runs. His 19 home runs are a bit shocking but I won’t be shocked if he adds to his total this evening.
Coors Field is projected to be a festival of runs. Both bullpens are bad. Both starters are average at best. As long as the weather holds up, we should see some pop. Walker leans heavily towards fly balls now against right-handed pitching which is helpful given that Antonio Senzatela is a groundball pitcher. I suspect we see a couple of at-bats against Antonio and a couple against a bad bullpen. Walker could see a lefty as well, with several lefties around him in the batting order.
Walker is +300 to go yard. We add him to our parlay and will probably see a big burst in odds with a very weak bottom tier.
Bleacher Seats – Tommy La Stella – 1B – $2,600
We are working with Lance Lynn and his bloated HR/9 number for this one. I am not seeing many appealing options in this range tonight. La Stella name popped up after looking through three times which is to say, his name didn’t really pop up. In any event, he has just enough fly balls and hard contact against righties to make me think he is worth a crack against Lance Lynn. I don’t love it and his +600 FanDuel number doesn’t bloat my confidence.
Happy Fourth of July, everyone! Stay safe! Have fun!
Thanks so very much for reading. Give me a follow on Twitter for sports betting banter, golf tidbits, and professional wrestling reactions. We will see you again on Tuesday for a recap, leaderboard, and home run calls.
Player Image Credit: Imagn