Home Run Derby - MLB DFS Community Contest: Tuesday, July 5th
Happy Dinger Tuesday! We opened up our July on Friday with a measly nine-game slate and 24 home runs. With 12 games tonight and NO PITCHING… we should see a fun slate filled with post-Independence Day fireworks. Let’s recap Friday before making a few picks for tonight’s slate.
Well, for the first time this season, I feel like I missed the boat. My picks were horrendous and while this is a bit results-oriented, our community showed me the way. Byron Buxton and Rowdy Tellez (cheap seats) were excellent picks and rewarded the several members who jumped on the train. Tellez was a no-brainer and a complete misfire from yours truly. Meanwhile, Westcrook1 opened the month with a 3 for 3 performance on his picks when Ohtani, McMahon, and Pasquantino went yard. I hope you played a small parlay for those! Kudos to all of you who opened July up with a bang. Let’s talk through the slate.
Reminder! Prizes were doubled for each month. Spread the word!
Rules, Tiers, and Prizes
Here are the cliff notes from the introductory rules and guidelines set forth in our opening article. If you want a bit more clarification, here is the first article with a more developed explanation for the contest.
In short, pick three players in the comments for tonight’s DraftKings Main MLB slate. You may pick one player from each of the tiers below.
Luxury Box – $5,000 and above
Promenade – $3,500 – $4,900
Bleachers – Below $3,500
You will collect home runs for every home run your batters hit that night. Selections must be made prior to lock time in the comments section. At the end of each month, prizes will be award to the community members with the most home runs. At the end of the season, additional prizes will be awarded to those members who put together the best totals for the entire season (ending in August).
The following prizes will be awarded to players based on their home run total for the month (April, May, June, July, August)
First Place – 2 months of RotoGrinders MLB Premium
Second Place – RotoGrinders T-shirt and hat
Third Place – 2 weeks of SAO Premium
The following prizes will be awarded to players based on their home run total for the entire baseball season (April – August)
First Place – One month of RotoGrinders Combo Premium
Second Place – RotoGrinders Swag Pack
Third Place – One month of SAO Premium
If you have any questions, please feel free to leave them in the comments or send me a message on Twitter.
Tuesday, July 5th MLB DFS Slate Notes
We have 12 games on the DraftKings Main slate that begin at 7:05 PM EST. Three games will be played in domes with Coors Field off the slate.
The weather could potentially be an issue on the east coast. Be sure to check in with that link prior to locking in your picks, bets, and DFS lineups. As this article will be up pretty early, I am going to make picks as if all of the games are going to be a full go.
There is absolutely no pitching on our slate tonight. To prove this, I quickly jumped to LineupHQ and find that Nick Pivetta is the highest-priced pitcher on DraftKings. While I don’t follow MLB or Pivetta as closely as I used to, I can tell you that this is good news for our home run hunt.
Let’s take a look at our customary HR/9 list:
Spencer Howard, TEX, 8.10
Yusei Kikuchi, TOR, 2.01
Adrian Martinez, OAK, 1.80
German Marquez, COL, 1.61
Kyle Hendricks, CHI, 1.55
Luis Garcia, HOU, 1.53
Austin Voth, BAL, 1.47
Howard and Martinez bring mega-small samples. Marquez squares with a ridiculously powerful Dodgers lineup. Voth pitches against the Rangers in Camden Yards. We have some spots, tonight.
Per our Starting Lineups page, here are the top five run totals on the slate:
Yankees – 5.32
Phillies – 5.29
Astros – 5.26
Dodgers – 5.26
Braves – 5.14
Let’s make some picks! Good luck, everyone.
Tuesday, July 5th MLB Home Run Picks
Luxury Box – Yordan Alvarez – OF – $6,000
So, we are graced with a wealth of power in our upper tier this evening. I don’t overthink this tier too much because frankly, anyone can go yard — multiple times.
Yordan Alvarez helps me a bit because he will play in a dome. Alvarez draws Zack Greinke, a shell of his former self, backed by an atrocious Royals bullpen. The Astros could be the top stack on the slate and Yordan should see ample opportunities to pay us off. Alvarez boasts a ridiculous .420 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
At the time of this writing, Alvarez sits at +300 on DraftKings Sportsbook to go yard. He is an easy first leg to my parlay, tonight.
Promenade – Rowdy Tellez – 1B – $4,500
I missed out on Rowdy the other night. I will not miss, tonight.
Tellez draws one of the better home run matchups in the friendly, weather-agnostic confines of Miller Park. Kyle Hendricks is on our short list of targets as his groundball prowess can’t overcome his frequent serving up of bombs. Tellez is in our 40/40 club and Hendricks is yielding north of 40% fly balls against lefties this season. Sign me up.
Another better price on DraftKings, Tellez is listed at +330.
Bleacher Seats – Franmil Reyes – OF – $3,200
The Franimal is returning to form after a long stint on the IL. Two home runs last week are what we are looking for as Reyes brings a reputation of hitting the long ball when healthy.
At this price range, I can overlook statistical flaws. Reyes’ ISO is down this season. His fly balls do not exceed 40%. That said, he is still hitting the baseball hard against right-handed pitching. At 47.9% hard hits, we just need one connection from Reyes. Drew Hutchinson is currently residing in a small sample theatre, although, last season he allowed north of 40% fly balls to righties.
In any event, we aren’t looking for that much down here. Reyes boasts a track record that likely belongs in a tier above. Reyes sits at +300 on FanDuel. His +295 price on DraftKings puts us at +6694. Surely, we can throw a $10 micro-wager on this. Good luck, tonight!
Thanks so very much for reading. Give me a follow on Twitter for sports betting banter, golf tidbits, and professional wrestling reactions. We will see you again on Friday for a recap, leaderboard, and home run calls.
Player Image Credit: Imagn