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2022 MLB Home Run Derby Odds: Participants, Picks, and Predictions

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2022-07-18 18:31:41

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MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida previews everything you need to know to bet on 2022 MLB Home Run Derby odds tonight — Monday, July 18. Don’t live in a state with legal betting? Get action by picking home run props with our PrizePicks promo code!

Tonight, the MLB Home Run Derby will take place under the bright lights in Hollywood for the first time since the inception of the event in 1985. The field of eight sluggers is headlined by two-time defending champion Pete Alonso of the New York Mets. Juan Soto is the only other member of tonight’s festivities who participated in last year’s Derby at Coors Field, though multiple other participants have prior experience under the new format as well.

Let’s take a look at the 2022 Home Run Derby odds, followed by some general statistics of interest before diving into our favorite wagers for Monday night’s Home Run Derby.

2022 Home Run Derby Odds & Field

The MLB Home Run Derby odds referenced herein, courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, are subject to change.

Home Run Derby Weather Update

Weather-wise I would consider things to be favorable, but not fantastic for bombs. We’ll see a gentle southwest wind at around 5mph (which is blowing out to center / right-center), with a temperature around 80 degrees. Both the light breeze blowing out and the warm temp will help give balls a bit of extra carry tonight. – RG Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth

For more MLB betting tips, check out Roth’s MLB weather updates throughout the season.

Park Factors – Dodger Stadium

For batters who have played at both Dodger Stadium and elsewhere thus far in 2022, right-handed hitters have received a larger home run boost compared to lefties when playing in Los Angeles. This right-handed hitter friendliness at Dodger Stadium is a trend that has consistently manifested itself in each of the last four seasons. Last year, Coors Field saw two right-handed batters make the finals – a venue that favors right-handed batters tremendously. We saw similar park factors influence the competition in Cleveland in 2019 and Petco Park in 2016.

What have these hitters been up to lately?

hr-derby-stats

*Albert Pujols numbers not included due to insufficient plate appearances

My good friend, and research savant, @ReducingJuice on Twitter pulled some custom data points of interest ahead of this event. These numbers show the 30-day rolling numbers for exit velocity, launch angle, and barrel percentage for each of tonight’s contests. Put another way, the above chart shows how hard batters have been hitting the baseball, and at what angle, compared to the preceding 30 days of action.

Notably, Soto has increased his average launch angle by 11.0° compared to the 30-day window from May 14th to June 14th. From May 14th to June 14th, Soto hit 5 home runs, with a .390 slugging percentage and a .210 ISO. In the last month, he has 6 home runs, a .583 slugging percentage, and a .274 ISO. His average exit velocity and barrel percentage have also increased significantly in this span. He enters this contest swinging the bat better than he has at any point in 2022, at least from a power perspective.

Julio Rodriguez has increased his launch angle by 4.5° across the last 30 days. Compared to the preceding month of action, Rodriguez has more home runs, a higher slugging percentage, and a dramatically higher ISO. Corey Seager has seen the second-highest increase in barrel percentage over the last month, who Rodriguez will be facing in the opening round.

Before rushing to fade Alonso based on these metrics, it is worth mentioning that these numbers are not the only numbers that matter for this contest.

Home Run Derby Opening Round Matchups

PrizePicks Home Run Props – Round 1

The home run props are from top DFS site PrizePicks, and available in most states.

#1 – Kyle Schwarber (-340) v. #8 – Albert Pujols (+270)

This will be Kyle Schwarber’s second appearance in the Home Run Derby, following a run to the finals in 2018 at Nationals Park. In that event, Schwarber totaled 16 home runs in Round 1, 21 home runs in Round 2, and 18 home runs in Round 3. That season, Nationals Park was one of the most favorable home run venues in the league for left-handed batters, per Statcast. Schwarber will not have the same park factor advantage on Monday at Dodger Stadium, a venue that has graded more favorably for right-handed batters in night games each of the last four years. His first round opponent, Albert Pujols is right-handed, and has a rest advantage in this spot. Schwarber was in the lineup and played left field yesterday in Miami. He had to get on a cross-country flight to partake in tonight’s action, traveling across three time zones. Pujols did not play on Sunday, due to the St. Louis Cardinals having their game postponed due to inclement weather. Pujols has never won this event, but has competed in the Home Run Derby four times prior to 2022. It will be his second time competing under the new head-to-head format. In 2015, Pujols out-hit Kris Bryant at Great American Ball Park before losing to Joc Pederson in the semi-finals. The veteran slugger has underdog value in this spot.

#2 – Pete Alonso (-180) v. #7 – Ronald Acuna (+150)

Pete Alonso lives for the Derby. “This is everything I dreamed of as a young kid,” Alonso commented during an interview with ESPN after his Round 1 performance last summer at Coors Field. Alonso takes this event, arguably, more seriously than any other player in the field. Thus, the “revenge” factor for Acuna looking to avenge his 2019 semi-finals defeat to Alonso at Progressive Field should be weighted accordingly. Still, it is worth noting that Alonso played in both games of Saturday’s double-header at Wrigley Field, and was in the lineup on Sunday as well. Acuna Jr. was given a rest day on Saturday, likely leaving him more fresh for Monday evening’s Derby. When Acuna Jr. partook in the event in Cleveland, he exploded for 25 home runs in Round 1, and followed that up with 19 home runs in the semi-finals. Despite missing the start of the regular season due to an ACL injury, he remains a legitimate threat to the Polar Bear in this spot. Nonetheless, we are rocking with Alonso here as he goes for his third consecutive Derby Crown.

#3 – Corey Seager (+120) v. #6 – Julio Rodriguez (-155)

Per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, Rodriguez hit an incredible 37 home runs in his first simulation of the Home Run Derby, when he took pre-game batting practice on Sunday. The staggering number is even more impressive when bettors consider that Rodriguez posted this number at Globe Life Field – a venue that is much less friendly to right-handed batters than Dodger Stadium. Mike Petriello posted an insightful article to MLB.com last week, detailing the elite bat speed that Rodriguez possesses. In a Derby-type atmosphere, bat speed is one of the most important metrics to be mindful of in evaluating participants. Rodriguez should have a strong showing on Monday as long as he is not too fatigued from his practice round yesterday. Still, not all hope is lost for Seager, who will be making his second career appearance in this contest. In 2016, he was eliminated in the first round against Mark Trumbo, but Seager did manage to hit the third-most home runs in the opening round of that event. Seager was also playing at a significant disadvantage at Petco Park in 2016 – a stadium that suppresses power for left-handed batters more than almost any place in the big leagues. Yet, he is the underdog for a reason on Monday. Expect Rodriguez to steal the show in Los Angeles, ruining Seager’s homecoming.

#4 – Juan Soto (-180) v. #5 – Jose Ramirez (+145)

Last year, Soto had an issue during the first half of the season with hitting too many balls on the ground. However, bettors would not have known this if they didn’t see him swing a bat until they watched the Home Run Derby. Soto hit 31 home runs in the opening round in 2021 to defeat consensus favorite and top seed, Shohei Ohtani. The fatigue from a swing-off in the opening round seemed to leave him without much energy in the semi-finals against Alonso, the eventual champion. Returning for another shot at the title, Soto has a much more favorable path to the finals, beginning with Jose Ramirez. In his career, Ramirez owns a higher slugging percentage, OPS, and ISO when batting from the left side of the plate, but he commented that he is leaning towards hitting from the right side of the box on Monday. Regardless of which side Ramirez takes his cuts, he faces a tall task, attempting to out-swing Soto, who set a Derby record in 2022, with a 520 foot home run.

Home Run Derby Finals Prediction

Soto should be able to take care of business against Ramirez in the opening round. In the semi-finals, he will either get a lefty-on-lefty matchup against Schwarber, or he will get to face the 42 year-old Pujols for a trip to the finals. The Home Run Derby is an extremely tiring event, making it unlikely that Pujols would be able to put together back-to-back rounds good enough to defeat his opponent. Schwarber would likely present a more difficult challenge, but a rough travel schedule could have him more fatigued than people are expecting.

If Rodriguez can manage to knock-off Seager in Round 1, he will have a great opportunity to advance to the finals in this competition. As was mentioned above, Alonso has played three baseball games in the last two days, which could negatively impact his performance as he gets deeper into this event. If Rodriguez draws a matchup with Acuna Jr., he will have a relatively even matchup against another right-handed batter. At significant plus-money, there are worse wagers that bettors could make on Monday.

Home Run Derby Winner Pick

If not for exhausting himself in a swing-off against Ohtani in Round 1 at Coors Field last summer, we could be talking about Soto being the defending champion of this event. Soto has been placing extreme emphasis on increasing his launch angle in recent weeks at the plate, something that should translate well to this event. If he can manage to conserve more energy in the opening round in 2022, he has an excellent opportunity to take home some hardware this evening. At such long odds, he is unquestionably worth the risk.

Image Credit: Imagn

About the Author

nickgalaida
Nick Galaida (nickgalaida)

A failed high school pitcher, Nick Galaida discovered that he has a higher aptitude for analyzing and writing about sports than he does playing them. To his friends, he is better known as “The Commish.” When he’s not organizing a fantasy league, placing a bet, or writing an article, he’s probably nose-deep in a book—further illustrating the point that his niche in this world is as a nerd rather than an athlete. Follow Nick on Twitter – @CommishFilmRoom