Last Minute Research: NFL Week 5
Last week was enough of a success to bring on another edition of ‘Last Minute Research’. This week we’ll go over some of the same tools from last week that proved successful, and introduce a few new ones as well. Hopefully you had some Nate Washington or Robert Woods in your lineup for Week 4!
Have a question about a specific research tool? Feel free to post in the comments or check the links beneath each section for FAQ-related answers
Last Week’s Targets
Shown below are all players with over 10 targets in Week 4.
| TARGETS – WEEK 4 | TEAM | Wk4 | AVG | Wk3 | DIFF-L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Cruz | NYG | 16 | 10.8 | 8 | 8 |
| A.J. Green | CIN | 15 | 12.5 | 8 | 7 |
| Brandon Marshall | CHI | 14 | 10.5 | 8 | 6 |
| Tony Gonzalez | ATL | 14 | 8.3 | 5 | 9 |
| Julio Jones | ATL | 13 | 12 | 12 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | PIT | 13 | 10.5 | 13 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | BAL | 12 | 10.5 | 9 | 3 |
| Cecil Shorts | JAX | 12 | 13 | 15 | -3 |
| Andre Johnson | HOU | 12 | 11.8 | 6 | 6 |
| Jordan Cameron | CLE | 12 | 10.8 | 11 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | CHI | 12 | 8 | 5 | 7 |
| Jerome Simpson | MIN | 11 | 8 | 8 | 3 |
| Kenbrell Thompkins | NE | 11 | 9.8 | 7 | 4 |
| Alshon Jeffery | CHI | 11 | 8 | 8 | 3 |
| Vincent Jackson | TB | 11 | 10.3 | 6 | 5 |
| Reggie Wayne | IND | 11 | 7.8 | 7 | 4 |
| Owen Daniels | HOU | 11 | 8 | 9 | 2 |
| Demaryius Thomas | DEN | 10 | 9.5 | 11 | -1 |
| Michael Floyd | ARI | 10 | 7.3 | 6 | 4 |
| Donnie Avery | KC | 10 | 6.5 | 7 | 3 |
| Calvin Johnson | DET | 10 | 10 | 13 | -3 |
| Jason Witten | DAL | 10 | 8.3 | 6 | 4 |
| Antonio Gates | SD | 10 | 7.8 | 7 | 3 |
- Other Cheap Notables: Kevin Ogletree (9 targets), Robert Woods (8 targets) and Tandon Doss (9 targets)
NOTES:
- 5 cheaper/value plays that stand out to me on that list are Martellus Bennett, Jerome Simpson, Alshon Jeffery, Michael Floyd and Donnie Avery. Simpson is off this week though.
- A.J. Green’s 51 receiving yards on 15 targets and 7 receptions was abysmal. But anyone who’s seen him play before knows that’s far from the norm. If he’s targeted 15 times, he will put up big time stats more often than not.
- Of all the 10+ target guys, VJax was far and away the biggest bust. 11 targets and just 2 catches for 27 yards.
- It’s crazy to see 6 tight ends on this list off 10+ targets, and none of them be named Jimmy Graham. He was targeted just 4 times but caught all 4 for 100 yards and 2 scores.
- Tony Gonzalez saw the biggest jump of any WR/TE this week with at least 10 targets, as he went from 5 targets in Week 3 to 14 in Week 4.
LINKS
Week to Week WR Target Stats
Week to Week TE Target Stats
General Target Stats
Offense vs. Defense
Shown below is a segmented table from our Offense vs. Defense page which averages team offense stats against opponent defense allowed stats. These are the 5 teams with the highest Passing Yards average:
| Offense | Opp | PPG | P-Att | P-Yd | P-TD | Rec | Pass | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver | DAL | 33.0 | 41.0 | 334.1 | 3.25 | 28.9 | 25.2 | 67.4 |
| Detroit | GB | 29.9 | 37.3 | 310.0 | 2.21 | 24.7 | 20.5 | 56.6 |
| New Orleans | CHI | 27.8 | 38.1 | 308.0 | 2.00 | 25.3 | 18.1 | 55.4 |
| Green Bay | DET | 28.6 | 41.0 | 297.3 | 1.83 | 26.0 | 16.6 | 53.7 |
| NY Giants | PHI | 24.9 | 40.4 | 296.4 | 1.88 | 25.6 | 17.4 | 53.7 |
NOTES:
- Think people are crazy for jumping on the Giants this weekend? There’s good reason to target a team that’s 0-4. Philly has been that bad defensively and the Giants can still throw the ball around.
- It’s no surprise that Denver is ranked #1 here. Their passing game has been near perfection and Dallas is the only team to allow multiple 400 yard passing games in the early goings of this season.
- Denver is also a full passing touchdown higher on the Offense vs. Defense page than any other team this weekend.
LINKS
Defense vs. Position
Here are the 5 best and worst defenses against each position this season:
| Bottom-5 vs. QB’s | Bottom-5 vs. RB’s | Bottom-5 vs. WR1’s | Bottom-5 vs. WR2’s | Bottom-5 vs. TE’s |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego | St. Louis | Philadelphia | San Francisco | Miami |
| Philadelphia | Minnesota | Buffalo | San Diego | Arizona |
| Washington | Denver | Green Bay | New England | Minnesota |
| Dallas | Detroit | Atlanta | Baltimore | NY Giants |
| NY Giants | Miami | San Diego | Houston | Dallas |
| Top-5 vs. QB’s | Top-5 vs. RB’s | Top-5 vs. WR1’s | Top-5 vs. WR2’s | Top-5 vs. TE’s |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis | NY Jets | Seattle | Kansas City | Kansas City |
| New Orleans | Kansas City | New Orleans | New Orleans | Carolina |
| Kansas City | Buffalo | Miami | Seattle | Houston |
| Carolina | Cleveland | Houston | Buffalo | NY Jets |
| Seattle | Chicago | Indianapolis | Arizona | Pittsburgh |
NOTES:
- The Rams running defense has been horrible the past two weeks, allowing 175 rush yards to Demarco Murray and 153 yards to Frank Gore. MJD is certainly in play this week.
- San Francisco has struggled a bit with secondary receiving options this season and DeAndre Hopkins could be a nice value play in GPPs.
- Arizona has been torched by the likes of Jared Cook and Jimmy Graham this season. But even the relatively unknown Tim Wright had 5 catches for 40 yards against ARI last week for the Bucs. Greg Olsen should get a lot of good opportunities on Sunday.
- Miami is allowing over 70 receiving yards and nearly 7 catches a game to opposing running backs (as was showcased by Darren Sproles huge night on MNF). Their linebackers clearly struggled picking up Sproles coming out of the backfield and Ray Rice might be able to exploit that this weekend as well. He’s worth a look on PPR sites.
LINKS:
Defense vs. QBs
Defense vs. RBs
Defense vs. WRs
Defense vs. TEs
Snap Count Stats: RB’s
Shown below are the top-10 running backs in snap count percentage from Week 4:
| Running Backs | TM | Wk1 | Wk2 | Wk3 | Wk4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Forte | CHI | 81% | 91% | 71% | 99% |
| D.Murray | DAL | 90% | 88% | 77% | 95% |
| J.Charles | KC | 57% | 99% | 84% | 91% |
| A.Peterson | MIN | 91% | 84% | 81% | 90% |
| D.Martin | TB | 92% | 88% | 84% | 88% |
| R.Jennings | OAK | 10% | 29% | 13% | 85% |
| M.Lynch | SEA | 68% | 67% | 49% | 77% |
| L.Bell | PIT | 0% | 0% | 0% | 76% |
| B.Powell | NYJ | 63% | 62% | 81% | 75% |
| G.Bernard | CIN | 36% | 34% | 54% | 74% |
NOTES:
- Forte, Murray, Charles, Peterson and Martin all cost big money. Rashad Jennings (if McFadden is out), does not cost big money this week and played 85% of the Raiders snaps last weekend.
- The Bengals have made it pretty clear that Gio Bernard is their go to back now, and playing 74% of snaps last week was the icing on the cake. With Wilfork out of the middle for New England, look for Gio to be a nice value play.
- Bilal Powell wasn’t jaw-dropping last week but played over 3/4 of the snaps and should shoulder an even bigger load on Monday night if Ivory can’t go again. The Jets receiving corps is decimated right now.
LINKS:
Running Back Snap Count Percentages by Week
Running Back Total Plays by Week
Tight End Salary Charts
Shown below are percentage of top statistics for Tight Ends this weekend. Percent of Top = Player’s Salary divided by Most Expensive Player at his position’s salary. AVG is average Percent of Top stat for all sites.
| Tight Ends | Tm | AVG | FD | DS | DD | DK | FF | SS | FTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | NO | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Jordan Cameron | CLE | 84% | 90% | 85% | 81% | 86% | 80% | 83% | 85% |
| Rob Gronkowski | NE | 72% | 81% | 61% | 66% | 71% | 62% | 75% | 85% |
| Antonio Gates | SD | 72% | 79% | 83% | 59% | 71% | 63% | 75% | 71% |
| Tony Gonzalez | ATL | 69% | 74% | 69% | 62% | 74% | 59% | 76% | 70% |
| Jason Witten | DAL | 68% | 76% | 68% | 53% | 75% | 59% | 70% | 71% |
| Julius Thomas | DEN | 67% | 76% | 70% | 51% | 54% | 78% | 73% | 64% |
| Vernon Davis | SF | 60% | 82% | 59% | 47% | 64% | 42% | 66% | 59% |
| Greg Olsen | CAR | 60% | 73% | 61% | 51% | 60% | 50% | 69% | 56% |
| Martellus Bennett | CHI | 60% | 73% | 57% | 49% | 56% | 53% | 70% | 58% |
| Jermichael Finley | GB | 57% | 70% | 53% | 47% | 54% | 49% | 66% | 61% |
| Owen Daniels | HOU | 57% | 69% | 51% | 46% | 57% | 49% | 70% | 59% |
| Jared Cook | STL | 55% | 67% | 54% | 47% | 51% | 48% | 67% | 51% |
NOTES:
- With Cameron having played and Gronk not reliable even if he plays, it’s Graham and then a huge drop on average in tight end pricing.
- Tight End pricing seems to be broken into a few tiers, with Gates to Thomas representing the 2nd tier of TE’s and Vernon Davis to Jared Cook representing the 3rd tier of TEs.
- With pricing so compact, you need to hit on the TE position. It’s not hard to save at that slot but it’s really hard to make up the difference in a week like Week 4 where Gates and Gonzalez presented so much value.
LINKS:
TE Market Watch
TE Salary Charts
NFL Vegas Odds and Lines
Shown below are the 4 games this weekend with projected point totals over 50 points:
| Date | Time | Road | Home | Rd Sprd. | Hm Sprd. | Total Points | Rd. Proj. Score | Hm Proj. Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun | 4:25PM ET | Denver | Dallas | -7 | 7 | 56 | 31.5 | 24.5 |
| Sun | 1:00PM ET | Detroit | Green Bay | 7 | -7 | 53.5 | 23.25 | 30.25 |
| Sun | 1:00PM ET | Philadelphia | NY Giants | 0 | 0 | 53.5 | 26.75 | 26.75 |
| Sun | 1:00PM ET | New Orleans | Chicago | 0 | 0 | 50 | 25 | 25 |
NOTES:
- Of the 4 games with 50 or more as the point over/under, 2 of them are currently Pick Ems.
- There’s been plenty of talk about options on most of these teams. But one team that has been left out a bit is the Bears.
- The Bears are projected to score 25 against New Orleans, which means at least 3 touchdowns. With Brandon Marshall hampered a bit by injury, it could be another big weekend for Alshon Jeffery.
- The Packers and Broncos are the only two teams projected to score over 30 points this weekend by Vegas
LINKS:
NFL Cheat Sheets
Shown below is a quick list of guys to TARGET this week, based on facing a bottom-5 defense at their position:
- QUARTERBACKS: T. Pryor, E. Manning, P. Manning, M. Vick
- RUNNING BACKS: M. Jones-Drew, D. Murray, E. Lacy, R. Rice
- WIDE RECEIVER #1s: V. Cruz, J. Gordon, C. Johnson, J. Kerley, D. Moore
- WIDE RECEIVER #2s: D. Hopkins, R. Streater, M. Sanu, B. Hartline, K. Williams
- TIGHT ENDS: E. Dickson, G. Olsen, B. Celek, J. Thomas
NOTES:
- If you’re playing on 2 QB sites, and I think saying this might kill me, consider starting both Manning Bros.
- Vick to Celek could be a sneaky upside pick this weekend. The Giants have struggled against TEs this year and have struggled for the better part of the last 2 years
- MJD’s name just keeps popping up…
- Love me some Greg Olsen this weekend
LINKS:
Alright well that just about does it for this week’s last minute research. I hope it helps as you finalize your lineups and be sure to check out the daily research console for all your NFL daily fantasy needs!