Primetime Parlay: Lions vs. Cowboys Same Game Parlay Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2023-12-30 18:11:42

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Saturday night brings a pivotal matchup between the Lions and the Cowboys. We build a same-game parlay on FanDuel Sportsbook for this matchup with heavy playoff implications.

The schedule will not offer many more key matchups as the NFL season winds down. On Saturday night, we get one of the bigger matchups left in the season in primetime, as the Lions travel to Dallas to play the Cowboys. Both teams still have a path to the top seed in the NFC. The Lions clinched their division, but a win keeps them alive for home-field advantage throughout the postseason. The Cowboys took a loss in Miami but could still win the NFC East if they win out and the Eagles lose.

We have a huge total and two playoff contenders. Let’s build a same-game parlay ticket to sweat along with what should be a great game.

Lions vs. Cowboys Same Game Parlay Preview

A quick look at the game breakdown on ScoresAndOdds shows a 5.5-point spread in favor of the home team. The total moved a full point from 7:00 AM on Sunday to the time of this writing. 72% of dollars bet on the spread have sided with Dallas.

The implied game total is massive. At 52.5 points, this will easily be one of the highest-implied totals of the weekend. Both offenses can score points in bunches. So despite the quality of the defenses, the meeting of these two explosive offenses indoors is expected to yield plenty of points. A large majority of money and bets on this game have been placed on the over.

On the injury front, the Lions look to be at full strength with OT Taylor Decker likely to play in tonight’s contest. For the Cowboys, Rico Dowdle is out. As a response, Deuce Vaughn will be active but will likely only be used to spell Tony Pollard. Tyron Smith and Johnathan Hankins are questionable for the contest and would leave gaping holes on both sides of the line if they cannot go.

Let’s take a look at the offensive statistics for two of the best offenses in the NFL:

Detroit Offense
5th — 27.5 PPG
3rd — 5.8 YPP
8th — 7.4 Passing YPA
5th — 4.7 Rushing YPA

Dallas Offense
2nd — 30.1 PPG
7th — 5.5 YPP
5th — 7.4 Passing YPA
15th — 4.1 Rushing YPA

The Dallas offense cooled off on the road the last few weeks, only scoring 21 points per game. This should not surprise anyone, however, as Dallas leads the league in home scoring (39.9 PPG). Dallas is middle of the pack when it comes to scoring on the road. The offense is built to play in a dome. The same can be said for Detroit, although the disparity this season is less tremendous than their counterparts.

Dallas is top five in scoring defense, while Detroit are in the bottom ten of the league. The Lions find themselves allowing opponents to move the ball through the air and score to play catch up. Last week, the now-benched Nick Mullens led Sunday in passing yardage against the Lions’ defense indoors. Dak Prescott could have a field day with CeeDee Lamb against this defense.

The Lions will need to take advantage of the only chink in the Dallas’ defensive armor. The Lions will need to run the football right at Dallas throughout the game with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. While the Cowboys aren’t the worst rushing defense in the league, the 4.2 yards per rush attempt allowed is a far easier path than trying to throw the ball forty times and deal with immense pressure.

This should be a spectacle. Let’s take a look at what FanDuel Sportsbook is offering for player props and build a fun ticket.

Same Game Parlay Picks for Lions at Cowboys

Lamb Over 98.5 Receiving Yards
Prescott Over 279.5 Passing Yards
Gibbs Over 23.5 Receiving Yards

CeeDee Lamb Over 98.5 Receiving Yards

With all of the betting action favoring the over with such a high total, I am going to build my same-game parlay ticket accordingly. This feels like a dream spot for CeeDee Lamb against a defense that funnels offense to the air.

The Lions have allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season. Furthermore, Detroit allows the seventh-most DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers. On a full DFS slate, this game would be very stackable and expensive. With that said, I still think Lamb would be worth a play.

I am building tonight’s ticket under the premise that Dallas’ pass offense is going to have a day. Nobody is more integral to that happening than CeeDee Lamb.

Dak Prescott Over 279.5 Passing Yards

Well, Dak Prescott might be just as integral to the success of the passing offense. Since we are building with great success through the air in mind, Dak’s passing over correlates greatly with our first leg.

The Detroit defense is ranked ninth in opposing passing yardage and has given up the fourth-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks. Sledding could be tough for Tony Pollard on the ground, but Dak should have plenty of opportunities to make plays on Saturday night. Dallas is 11th in passing attempts per game and could lead the week against this defense.

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 23.5 Receiving Yards

Finally, we close our ticket with a response to the Dallas passing game playing well. I do think the best course of action for Detroit is to try and run with both backs right at this defense to slow the pass rush down and keep Jared Goff on his feet. Yet that strategy won’t work if Dallas marches right down the field and scores through the air with ease.

If I think Dallas is going to move the ball at will throughout the game, Jahmyr Gibbs being a factor in the passing game makes so much sense. Despite his explosive playmaking ability, Gibbs has not lit it up with catches since David Montgomery returned from injury. If all of the script plays out, however, Gibbs will need to get going as Jared Goff looks for quick throws to avoid Micah Parsons and company.

For a quick aside, Gibbs has cashed his longest rush prop in five or six of his last six games depending on the number. Against this defense, that is certainly in play at 18.5 yards on FanDuel. FanDuel does not allow bettors to include this prop for a same-game parlay, but it might make for a nice additional prop on Saturday night.