MLB ALDS Betting Picks: Twins vs. Yankees
The Wild Card round has come to a conclusion and the matchups for the Divisional rounds are set. If you’re looking for fireworks, look no further than the bright lights of New York on Friday night.
The New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins will be facing off as two of the poster children for this new “launch angle” era in baseball with both teams eclipsing the 300 home run mark on the season. Expect a lot of elevating and celebrating. Here’s a sports betting preview and MLB betting picks for the Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees.
MLB ALDS Betting Odds — Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees
Minnesota Twins +195
New York Yankees -235
According to the FanDuel Sportsbook, the Yankees are a -235 favorite to win this divisional series setting up the all but inevitable Yankees-Astros Championship Series everyone is anticipating. And with good reason. Historically, the Yankees have owned the Twins in the postseason. The Yankees are 13-2 against the Twins in their 15 postseason meetings and swept them out of the division series in 2003, 2004, 2009 and 2010. And of course, everybody remembers the 2017 Wild Card game where the Twins jumped out to 3-0 first inning lead but the Yankees rallied to win the game 8-4.
This Twins team is much different than the teams that have matched up with the Yankees in the past. They have fire power on the offensive end that is unmatched by most of the league. Eight players in the Twins lineup have 20 or more home runs this year and five of them have hit over 30 homers. They combine this with a pitching staff featuring two starters, Berrios and Odorizzi, that are capable of competing against any lineup if they bring their A stuff and a bullpen that can hold its own.
The Yankees have some fire power of their own. In fact, they finished just one home run behind the Twins for the league lead. What may be the most impressive is how the Yankees were able to put up such staggering offensive numbers amidst all the injuries they had to put up with this season. Guys like Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez, and Aaron Judge all spent significant time on the Injured List this season and perhaps the biggest bat, Giancarlo Stanton, only played 18 regular season games. Despite those guys missing significant time, the Yankees still managed to amass over 100 wins and hit 306 long balls. With a healthy lineup, New York will be tough to contain.
This matchup certainly qualifies to be described as high-octane. Many of these games may resemble a Big 12 football game more than a Major League baseball game. In a series featuring two highly powered offenses, obviously pitching becomes paramount. This is where I believe the Yankees have a distinct advantage.
MLB ALDS Betting Pick — Exact Outcome: Yankees 3-1 +330
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In Game 1, the Yankees will roll out James Paxton who closed out the final two months of the season with a 10-0 record and a 2.51 ERA. He’s arguably the hottest pitcher in the American league in that span. Luis Severino, their ace from a year ago, is now healthy and expected to play a big role in the rotation as well. But where the Yankees really have an advantage is in the bullpen. The Twins back half is no slouch, but the Yankees back half is elite. If they manage to have a lead going into the 6th or 7th inning it’s hard for teams to stage a comeback. They’re able to roll out a guy like Zack Britton in the 7th, who is only a few years removed from being considered the best closer in baseball, followed by Adam Ottavino, who has accumulated an impressive 1.90 ERA on the season, and close games out with Aroldis Chapman, who sports a 0.59 ERA since August 1. Few bullpens have a trio as dominant as this one.
This is the main reason I like the Yankees in this series. Both teams have high powered offenses. Both teams have won over 100 games, although the Yankees managed to do it in a tougher division. The Yankees won the regular season series between these two teams 4-2. On paper, the teams look to be very even. But to win games you have to be able to close them out. I believe the Yankees have the better tools to do that.
The Twins are certainly formidable, and I suspect they’ll be able to steal one of their home games. But I don’t see this series going the distance. The exact outcome of Yankees winning the series 3-1 is at +330. That is my favorite bet in the series.
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