MLB Best Bets: Baseball Picks, Predictions for Monday, August 9th
Happy Monday, everyone! While you and I wake up to hit the sportsbooks, most of the MLB will be hitting snooze today. It’s a very shallow, five-game slate on the docket Monday, with only four games on the books due to the Cincy-Cleveland game being a rainout makeup.
So our Best Bets of the Day will cover nearly the whole slate, and I’ll have more time to put into statistical research ahead of our wagers as a result. We had another great day on Sunday, with our top picks going 2-1, and the Braves one run away from getting us the elusive clean sweep.
Let’s jump right back into the madness, with our three favorite picks for Monday, August 9th. Enjoy!
MLB Betting Picks, Predictions — August 9th
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
Pitching Matchup: Freddy Peralta vs. Alec Mills
Pick: Brewers -200
This line opened at -190, which I liked a lot more, but I’m still all over the Brewers here in what feels like a no-brainer.
I don’t mean to rail on the Cubs every single day—Jed Hoyer did what he had to do to salvage this organization’s future. His deadline moves netted him Alex Madrigal, an elite young contact hitter (once he’s healthy next year), and five promising young prospects. It sucks to lose Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, and Kimbrel, but Hoyer couldn’t pay them all next year. So, them’s the breaks. It’s just the business of baseball, and it was all necessary in the interest of long-term success.
But in the short-term, the Cubbies are in rough shape. They rank 24th in scoring over the past 30 days (96 runs, or four per game), and 24th in team ERA during that span (5.09). Only two teams have struggled more than the Cubs pitching staff over the past week (6.62 ERA, 1.57 WHIP).
Now, we get Freddy Peralta vs. Alec Mills? Child, please! Print me that money, sportsbooks. Peralta has been exceptionally good this season—8-3 record, 2.21 ERA, 0.895 WHIP, 12.2 SO/9, and an MLB-best 4.2 H/9, .136 BAA—while Mills has been pedestrian at best—5-4, 4.41 ERA, 1.442 WHIP, 6.5 SO/9, 10.1 H/9, .285 BAA. Yeah, I’ll grab the Brews for some cold, unfiltered cash.
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
Pitching Matchup: Lucas Giolito vs. Beau Burrows
Pick: White Sox -190
When I first started writing this column, Chicago’s moneyline was at -175 and I literally typed that I couldn’t believe it wasn’t closer to -200. Now, it’s at -190 and will probably end up at -200 by the morning. Funny how this job starts making me think like an oddsmaker.
I’ve been all over the White Sox the past couple weeks—am I becoming what the kids call a ‘stan’? Well, my unexpected loyalty to the South Siders has led me to wins, and hopefully it has also steered you to some cold, hard cash. How can we not like Chicago here? They are swinging the hottest of sticks right now, with Eloy Jimenez back to prime form. They just swatted the Cubs on Sunday Night Baseball, and now they are back on ESPN with their ace on the mound.
Were sportsbooks concerned about Giolito’s four-inning, six-run implosion against the Royals his last time out? Maybe. But the burly Sox righty gave up less earned runs than that over 26.1 innings across his four previous starts—methinks the KC kung-pow was just an off-night. Giolito has two starts against the Twins this year—both quality starts—and his last time in Minnesota he pitched eight innings and surrendered just two hits while striking out 11. He should be fine.
Burrows might not have as much room for optimism. The guy’s not a starter—he hasn’t pitched more than a few innings in any outing this season, his ERA is 11.00, and his WHIP is 2.000. The Twins have already resigned themselves to sucking this year—they traded seven-time All-Star slugger (and Minnesota’s lone 2021 ASG representative) Nelson Cruz and stud pitcher Jose Berrios at the deadline. They might as well hand this win to the Sox on a pinstriped platter. CHI ‘til I die.
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres
Pitching Matchup: Zach Thompson vs. Joe Musgrove
Pick: UNDER 7.5 (-110)
Most people would probably auto-bet the Padres at home with Musgrove, but dive deeper and you’ll see that the smart money is on the UNDER here. Why risk San Diego’s -250 moneyline, or gamble on the Padres winning by two runs, when the odds overwhelmingly favor a low-scoring affair at -110?
Everyone in the MLB universe knows Joe Musgrove has enjoyed a stellar 2021 campaign. He has a 2.87 ERA, 0.973 WHIP, and 139 strikeouts. Opponents are batting just .195 against him, and hitting groundballs 46.6 percent of the time they make contact. Yet he’s just 7-7 on the season, a key reason he missed the All-Star Game.
It ain’t your fault, Joe. We at RotoGrinders recognize that your club has provided you with jack squat for run support—your 3.68 runs of support per nine innings ranks 140th among MLB starters who have pitched 40 or more innings this season. Hell, you have suffered a loss or a no decision on seven different occasions in which you allowed one run or zero runs!
Heart to heart with Joe Musgrove over—let’s move on to Zach Thompson, who totally feels Joe’s pain. Thompson has a 2.53 ERA and 1.102. Much like Musgrove, he has a .196 batting average against and a 44 percent groundball rate. But he’s 2-4, because the Marlins can’t plate any runs while he pitches. This mountain of a Marlins rookie has fantastic stuff, but Miami has scored just 13 total runs in the 42.2 innings he has pitched. As Ned Flanders would say, “golly.”
Are you sold yet? Don’t follow the crowd and blindly back the Padres in a sheep slaughter. This one will max out at 4-3, and I’m not confident in either side right now. The Marlins rank 27th in runs this season with 441, while the Padres rank 20th in scoring over the past seven days (25 runs) and the past 15 days (57). Let’s get low, baby.
Image Credit: Imagn