MLB Best Bets: Baseball Picks, Predictions for Sunday, August 8th
It’s been a wild weekend of baseball, and Sunday should be a doozie for fans and bettors alike. With 15 games on the docket, there’s a little bit for every kind of enthusiast to look forward to, and a ton of different angles to attack on the sportsbooks. Can anybody honestly believe that most teams have just 50 regular season games remaining!?
If you ask me, that’s 150 opportunities to improve our Bets of the Day record. Saturday’s action brought us a maddening 1-1 mark—Toronto managed just a one-run (walk-off) win over Boston, and I had the Jays’ -1.5 run line—womp, womp, womp. Another sweep just narrowly missed. But alas, our record is a very healthy 45-32 on the season, and we’re feeling great as we head into the home stretch.
Let’s dive right in, and showcase our favorite bets for Sunday Funday. Crack open a big-boy seltzer, and make some money on the pastime—you don’t realize how much you will miss this in three months!
MLB Betting Picks, Predictions — August 8th
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Pitching Matchup: Zack Wheeler vs. Taijuan Walker
MLB Bet: Phillies -160
It’s honestly tempting to go with Philly -1.5 at +125, but I’m admittedly gun-shy with run lines after the Blue Jays’ underwhelming one-run win Saturday. But the Phillies are freakin’ rolling—they have won seven games in a row, and scored 52 runs along the way. Now they get their ace on the mound, NL strikeout leader and first-time All-Star Zack Wheeler.
Wheeler has been phenomenal, with a 2.57 ERA, 1.034 WHIP, and a 9-6 record. No MLB pitcher has logged more innings, or faced more batters. He’s a beast, and a buy-low, dark horse candidate for NL Cy Young.
As everyone knows, a Walker can’t keep up with Hot Wheels. Taijuan is no exception. The Mets righty started 2021 strong—and he, too earned his first All-Star selection—but he has fizzled back into obscurity lately. Walker has surrendered 20 earned runs on 28 hits over his last four starts. His 1.84 late-May ERA has ballooned to a pedestrian 3.86 (SpiderTack, anyone!?).
Philadelphia looks poised to run away with the NL East title, while New York somehow keeps looking more pitiful. The Mets have gone 4-9 since July 26, and they have won just two of their seven series in the second half. Give me Hot Wheels for his tenth win and Philly’s 59th.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitching Matchup: Tyler Mahle vs. Bryse Wilson
MLB Bet: Reds -1.5 1st 5 Innings (+100)
I’m bullishly obsessed with first five innings props right now—they’re kind of my Flavor of the Month. But hey, they are boosting our Bets of the Day record, so who cares!? The Reds are a better team—with a better starting pitcher taking the mound—but I don’t believe in their bullpen enough to bet their run line or bloated moneyline. I love the +100 on their 1st 5 RL.
Mahle has had some ups and downs as of late, but he’s still super talented and should be able to mow down a Pirates club that Cincy has outscored 28-7 over the past three games. Mahle’s FIP (4.06), WHIP (1.243), and walk rate (9.1%) leave a lot to be desired, but his 8-3 record, 3.86 ERA, 10.6 K/9, and 42.4 percent ground ball rate are all solid.
Meanwhile, Bryse Wilson has barely dipped his toes in the proverbial Major League waters as a starter. The deadline acquisition from the Braves has flashed obvious promise at times, but also demonstrated quite clearly that he has a lot of growing to do. The 23-year old has a 2-4 record, 4.42 ERA, and 1.445 WHIP across his eight starts this season (seven for Atlanta, one for Philly). He could run into major trouble against the Reds, who lead the majors with 31 homers over the past 15 days (no other club has 25 in that span).
Pittsburgh is 7-14 since the All-Star break, and the Bucs traded away their lone All-Star (second baseman Adam Frazier, to San Diego). They are 41-70 on the season, and I’d be surprised if they finished with more than 60 total wins when all’s said and done. Give me the Reds by a pair of runs mid-game, and give Cincy slugger Nick Castellanos his second homer since returning from the IL.
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Pitching Matchup: Max Fried vs. Patrick Corbin
MLB Bet: Braves -1.5 (-115)
I know I said the Phillies might run away with the NL East title, but Atlanta’s not buying into that take one bit. After an underwhelming first half of the season, the Braves have barreled into opponents since the All-Star break. Deadline acquisition Jorge Soler has paid immediate power dividends. On Saturday night, he went deep for the third time since joining ATL—but the Nats scored three runs in the ninth inning for the stunning 3-2 comeback win.
Talk about an outlier. The Nationals have absolutely stunk since trading away every single star not named Juan Soto, while the Bravos have been exceptional offensively. Atlanta had scored 49 runs in its previous eight games (6.1 per game), and posted some football-like totals in the weeks prior.
I don’t expect another two-run performance by the Braves today, especially against Corbin (6-10, 5.74 ERA, 1.440 WHIP). The veteran southpaw leads the National League in earned runs (74) and home runs allowed (25). That’s bad news for DC, against a power-hitting Atlanta club that has mashed 24 dingers in the past 15 days (tied for second-most in the MLB).
Fried had a bumpy start to his 2021 campaign, but he’s gradually redeemed himself for the large part over the past few months. The 27-year old lefty has 29 strikeouts over his past four games, and he’s surrendered just six runs across 25 innings during that span. This marks Fried’s fourth tilt with the Nats this season, but the first time since DC dealt Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Yan Gomes. Give me ATL for the W.
Baseball Parlay of the Day
Philadelphia Phillies (-160) vs. New York Mets (Zack Wheeler vs. Taijuan Walker) – Wheeler over Walker feels like a lock. Philly’s offense over the struggling Mets pushes this one into no-brainer territory.
Cincinnati Reds (-250) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Tyler Mahle vs. Bryse Wilson) – A massive moneyline, I know… but Cincy has been mashing, and Bryse will be wearing the L today as much as the letter ‘C’ the day he was born.
Atlanta Braves (-225) vs. Washington Nationals (Max Fried vs. Patrick Corbin) – It’s a parlay—we don’t need high-value individual odds, we just need to stack wins. Atlanta at home against the post-clearance Nationals is a win.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-300) vs. Los Angeles Angels (Walker Buehler vs. Reid Detmers) – Again, who cares about the massive moneyline here. The Dodgers have momentum, and Buehler is 11-2 with a 2.16 ERA and 144 strikeouts. This pick is as easy as Leonardo DiCaprio was for Best Actor after he climbed into a bear carcass for The Revenant.
Chicago White Sox (-190) at Chicago Cubs (Dylan Cease vs. Zach Davies) – Finally, I pick a team on the road! I like the White Sox to finish this version of the Crosstown Classic strong, with young stud Cease pitching a gem on national television. Cubs were sellers at the trade deadline, and they’ll be losers today and most days until their season’s merciful end.
Total Odds: +564
|Bet: $50 |To Win: $284 |Total Payout: $334|
Image Credit: Imagn