MLB Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, August 9th)
MLB Best Bets for today’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under for Friday’s games. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
We split the picks last week. Spencer Schwellenbach and the Atlanta bullpen shut down the Marlins, but Bryan Woo put together a strong start against Philadelphia. Woo might have to go on the “never bet” list; I just can’t seem to get him right. Back him, and he leaves early with an injury, fade him, and he fires 6 strong innings.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 11-7-1
- Prop Picks: 10-9
Los Angeles Angels vs. Washington Nationals First 5 Innings Under 5 (-125 on ESPN BET)
This is a pretty big number for a first 5 innings total, especially given the recent schedule for these teams. The Angels have played 3 games the past 2 days in New York and now travel down the east coast to Washington. The Nationals haven’t had an off day since August 1 and just played an extra inning game that stretched well over 5 hours due to multiple rain delays. It wouldn’t be surprising if both lineups were sluggish today.
Jose Soriano missed a few weeks at the end of June with injury, but picked up right where he left off when he returned. Soriano has a 3.45 ERA since coming back, including quality starts in 3 of his last 4 outings. For a guy who throws 98 mph, he doesn’t get as many strikeouts, but he’s an elite ground-ball pitcher. Soriano ranks 96th percentile in GB%, which is how he survives giving up a healthy amount of hard contact.
Mitchell Parker gave up 11 ERs over a 2-start stretch in mid-July but has since bounced back with a pair of strong starts against two good offenses (Arizona and Milwaukee). Parker’s bad starts have typically been when he’s struggled with control, but that shouldn’t be an issue here, as the Angels have the 4th-lowest BB% in the league against lefties.
Los Angeles has been one of the weakest offenses vs. LHP since the start of June, ranking dead last in OPS and wOBA. They did leapfrog the White Sox in wRC+ after a solid showing against Nestor Cortes last night. Washington has the 10th-lowest wRC+ against righties over the past 30 days, and they dealt away Lane Thomas and Jesse Winker at the trade deadline. It’s a good spot for Soriano and Parker to both extend their quality start streaks.
Robbie Ray Under 17.5 Outs (+117 on BetRivers)
It’s great to have Ray back. He’s a dynamic pitcher with tons of upside every time he takes the mound. It’s kinda funny that San Francisco has both Ray and Blake Snell, as their careers and approaches have been so similar. I am just surprised to see this at 17.5 outs AND at plus money. Ray has made 3 starts since returning from Tommy John surgery and hasn’t threatened 6 IP. He maxed out at 5.1 IP during his minor league rehab assignment.
The strikeouts have been there for Ray, as he’s racked up 21 Ks in 14.1 IP. The efficiency? Not so much. Ray has averaged a ridiculous 4.51 pitches per plate appearance over his 3 starts. The league leaders are usually around 4.2 at the end of the season. He’ll likely trim that number down as he continues to shake off the rust, but he’s at 4.09 for his career. Ray has never been efficient, even in his Cy Young season (4.06 Pit/PA).
Detroit has been mediocre against lefties since the start of June, ranking 18th in wRC+. They work at-bats, though. The Tigers are tied for the 6th-highest in pitches seen per plate appearance this season. Their projected lineup also features eight right-handed hitters, and Ray has historically had significant platoon splits, both in terms of power and control.
I just think there are multiple ways this could go sideways for Ray, and pricing this at 17.5 at plus money is too aggressive.
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