MLB Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, September 20th)
MLB Best Bets for today’s action! This article will highlight one game-related total and one player prop under for Friday’s games. Unders are underrated, and we’ll be taking advantage of that edge. Sit back and enjoy the sweat!
Last Week’s Results
It’s the same old story, I went 1-1 last week. I can’t seem to get both of the picks right. Garrett Crochet and Brady Basso both dominated, we didn’t have a sweat for that first 5 innings under. Julian Aguiar needed the longest start of his career to reach 4 Ks. That was a tough one there.
Going right back to Crochet today.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 16-8-1
- Prop Picks: 13-12
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-160 on BetMGM)
It was the same thing as last week for Crochet. We’re only going to get 4 innings, but he’s remained effective in this limited role. After 4 innings of 1-run ball against Oakland, he’s now allowed 2 ERs or less in 4 of his last 5 appearances (and that’s excluding the rain-shortened outing when he threw 4 pitches). San Diego has been below average against lefties since the start of August, ranking between 17-19 in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. They typically make a ton of contact, but tonight’s lineup will be a little more strikeout-prone. Luis Arraez has been sidelined with a knee injury, and San Diego’s current projected lineup has a strikeout rate above 20%. They are still a good contact team, but they’re not the elite unit they’ve been lately.
Joe Musgrove has had one bad start since returning from an elbow issue. He gave up 6 ERs to San Francisco earlier this month but has been fantastic outside of that outing, allowing 4 ERs in his 6 other starts. Musgrove has a pristine 42:7 K:BB since coming off the IL, and his ERA estimators are in the low 3.00s. He draws the best matchup in the league, facing a White Sox squad that ranks 30th in OPS and wOBA against righties over the past 30 days. Boston has actually slipped behind Chicago in wRC+, so they’re up to 29th there.
This is also available at 4 (-125) on BetMGM, but I’m taking the 4.5 to give us a bit of extra room. We’re going to have to sweat an inning from Chicago’s bullpen so that .5 might come into play.
Justin Verlander Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115 on DraftKings)
Verlander just isn’t Verlander anymore. It’s sad! But if any other pitcher had these metrics, we’d be fading him hard at this line. In 5 starts since coming off the IL, Verlander has a 13% K% and an 8.5% SwStr%. Here are some qualified pitchers in that K% range: Miles Mikolas, Austin Gomber, Griffin Canning. Here are some qualified pitchers in that SwStr% range: Colin Rea, Jose Quintana, Erick Fedde. It’s not exactly a Hall of Fame group.
Verlander’s last start came against this Angels team. He had 2 Ks and 2 BBs with a 9.2% swinging-strike rate. The Angels remain a vulnerable lineup, ranking 5th in K% against righties over the past 30 days. The matchups just haven’t mattered for Verlander since coming back. Boston and Cincinnati were top 7 in K%, and Philadelphia was 14th. Arizona was the only negative matchup, and he recorded 0 Ks.
Verlander has 5 Ks in the entire month of September (3 starts). He’ll have to more than double that to hit this number.
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