MLB Daily Grind Down April 16th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-04-16 18:14:45

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit.

While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

The weather bug has hit a few games already this year and could be a factor in a couple more tonight. With only one day game on the schedule and most of the sites only running leagues for the night games, I am going to ignore the first Rockies game in today’s Grind Down. There is a full schedule of games though, so let’s get right into it:

Arizona at NY Yankees

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
ARI BvP		ARI vs R		NYY BvP		NYY vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Las Vegas

• OU 9.0

• Yankees -124

Pitchers

• Home Ivan Nova didn’t pitch particularly well in his first start of the season. He gave up 4 earned runs in 4 and 2/3 innings but did manage to strike 5 batters out. While he has had success against the current D-Back hitters, the sample size is too small to mean anything and this isn’t a great spot for Nova.

• Away Pitching in Yankee Stadium is tough, especially if you are on the visiting team. Brandon McCarthy has already given up 10 earned runs in his first two starts this year and you can expect him to give up some more tonight. It’s never my cup of tea to take a road underdog, especially with the over/under so high.

Batters

• Home The Yankees hitters could be in for a solid game tonight as McCarthy has really struggled in his first two starts this season. Robinson Cano and Brett Gardner are both guys with bad BvP numbers against McCarthy, but I still like them in this matchup. Travis Hafner is also in play with an OPS of 1.397 against McCarthy with 3 extra base hits.

• Away Interleague play always hurts the amount of research we can use because these teams rarely meet. While there isn’t much BvP stats to go on, I think Miguel Montero is a solid play at catcher. He usually bats clean up against right handed pitching and has great power for a catcher.

St. Louis at Pittsburgh

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
STL BvP		STL vs L		PIT BvP		PIT vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

h3. Las Vegas

• OU 8.5

• St. Louis -131

Pitchers

• Home Jonathan Sanchez is not a guy that I am going to be recommending anytime soon. He doesn’t look anything like the same pitcher that he was a few years ago. He gave up 9 earned runs in his last start. Avoid him but target the Cardinals hitters.

• Away Jake Westbrook is one of those pitchers that I hate to take because I always seem to take him on his bad outings. While the matchup against the Pirates is enticing, he has not had great success against them in the past. Last season, he went 1-4 against the Pirates with an ERA above 5.

Batters

• Home There is a lot to like about the Pirates hitters today. They have been in a bit of a rhythm lately and Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, and Pedro Alvarez have all had great success against Westbrook in the past. Throw a hot Starling Marte in the mix and I think the Pirates put some runs up today.

• Away When you have a struggling pitcher, I tend you throw out BvP and instead focus on the righty/lefty matchups. Yadier Molina, Matt Holiday, and Allen Craig all have great numbers against lefties. Target these guys when making your lineups.

Tampa Bay at Baltimore

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
TBR BvP		TBR vs R		BAL BvP		BAL vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Las Vegas

• OU 9.0

• Baltimore -123

Pitchers

• Home Jake Arrieta is not a pitcher that you should be targeting today. His WHIP is 1.60 this season with an ERA over 7 and a tough matchup against Tampa Bay.

• Away Roberto Hernandez is another guy that I would avoid. While he generally last 6+ innings in his starts, he gives up a lot of hits and a lot of earned runs. Much better options out there.

Batters

• Home This is a game that I would consider doing a couple of mini stacks in. Both pitchers are awful and it could turn into a shootout. Adam Jones and Chris Davis both have good numbers against Hernandez, but I also like Nate McLouth as a cheap sleeper pick.

• Away For the Rays, you can really take your pick here. While Zobrist is only 2/10 against Arrieta, he has drawn 8 walks against him. Desmond Jennings and Evan Longoria are also on my radar, Jennings is getting on base and scoring runs and Longoria finally hit his first HR of the year.

Boston at Cleveland

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
BOS BvP		BOS vs R		CLE BvP		CLE vs L
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Las Vegas

• OU 8.5

• Pick ‘Em Game

Pitchers

• Home Ubaldo Jimenez got rocked by the Yankees in his last start and is in a similar boat as Jonathan Sanchez, he just isn’t the same pitcher that he used to be. While the matchup with the Red Sox isn’t the worst matchup in the world, I am not going to trust him in any of my leagues.

• Away Felix Doubront is a pitcher that fares much better in fantasy baseball than he does in actual baseball. While he does give up runs, he gets plenty of strikeouts which always puts him in play. Last season, he average just over 9 K’s per 9 innings pitched. Decent GPP pick tonight.

Batters

• Home The Indians don’t have a lot of at bats against Doubront, but Carlos Santana is a solid play at catcher tonight. He has been on fire this season and has always hit well against lefties. Another guy to target is Asdrubal Cabrera.

• Away Mike Napoli, Dustin Pedroia, Jonny Gomes, Shane Victorino and Daniel Nava all have had success against Ubaldo in the past. You have to like them tonight, especially if they all start getting hits. My advice would be to find the cheaper options between those guys and take a couple of them.

Chicago White Sox at Toronto

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
CHW BvP		CHW vs R		TOR BvP		TOR vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

h3. Las Vegas

• OU 9.0

• Toronto -154

Pitchers

• Home Not exactly the start the Jays had in mind for Josh Johnson, but he is still getting used to the new team and I think he will settle down and start pitching much better. I think there are better options out there today, but he should be cheap and will likely pick up the win.

• Away Dylan Axelrod is a pitcher that you love to see if you are a hitter on the opposing team. He has a high WHIP, gives up runs, and struggles on the road.

Batters

• Home Toronto is a fairly big favorite in a game that should be a high scoring one, that is good news for the Jays hitters. Melky Cabrera, Edwin Encarnacion, and Adam Lind are all in play today. I would even take a chance on Emilio Bonifacio if he is cheap now that he is batting leadoff.

• Away Alex Rios is the guy to target for the White Sox. He has been red hot to start the season and is 3/7 with a HR and a double off of Johnson. I wouldn’t overpay for him, but he’s not a bad option if the price is right.

Continue Reading Part Two of Today’s Day Games MLB Grind Down Article Here