MLB Daily Grind Down: Thursday, September 5th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-09-05 15:34:11

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore

7:05 PM	Chicago White Sox – ROAD					Baltimore – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.251	0.683	19.30%	0.51		0.264	0.755	18.10%	0.63
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.253	0.691	19.30%	0.40		0.251	0.708	19.10%	0.44
SP STATS	Quintana – LHP					Gonzalez – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.24	3.66	7.56	9.75		1.31	4.11	6.36	8.28
LAST 14 DAYS	1.13	3.68	9.51	11.60		2.00	7.36	3.27	1.50
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	CHW vs R		CHW BvP			BAL vs L		BAL BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jose Quintana – Quintana has a 3.74 ERA on the road this season and has actually had success against the Orioles. He has only faced them once this year, but he threw 7 scoreless innings and racked up 11 strikeouts. I’m expecting a much different result this time around though, the Orioles have a .260 batting average at home and this game means a lot more to them than the White Sox. Starter Rating = 4

• Miguel Gonzalez – Gonzalez is a big favorite in this one, but I’m not so sure that you want him on your fantasy team tonight. He had his worst month of the season in August with a 5.25 ERA while allowing opponents to hit for a .277 batting average. This White Sox lineup may look weak, but they are coming off of their best month offensively. Starter Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

CWS – Gonzalez is giving up a .267 batting average to lefties this season and I really like the matchup for leadoff man Alejandro De Aza. I also like Gordon Beckham as a cheap 2B option, he has been very good against righties all season.

BAL – Even though Quintana is a lefty, he is a reverse splits pitcher. He is giving up a .276 batting average to lefties this season so that really helps the value of the Orioles. I think the Orioles score 6+ runs tonight and think that you should have a few of them in your lineup. Manny Machado, Chris Davis, and Matt Wieters are my top 3.

Boston vs. NY Yankees

7:05 PM	Boston – ROAD					NY Yankees – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.273	0.780	20.40%	0.68		0.246	0.685	19.40%	0.55
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.282	0.807	20.20%	0.56		0.244	0.687	19.70%	0.41
SP STATS	Peavy – RHP					Nova – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.08	3.91	7.55	11.12		1.27	2.88	8.00	11.28
LAST 14 DAYS	0.76	1.66	5.52	12.73		1.23	2.45	4.09	11.33
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	BOS vs R		BOS BvP			NYY vs R		NYY BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jake Peavy – This is a huge series for both teams, the Red Sox are trying to extend their AL East lead and the Yankees are scrapping for that last Wildcard spot. Peavy has been excellent since joining the Red Sox, but he has struggled on the road with a 5.05 ERA. Tonight he is facing a tough Yankees lineup with their backs against the wall. I think there is a much better chance of him having a bad start than him having a good one. Starter Rating = 4

• Ivan Nova – Nova has been huge for the Yankees playoff push, he is 8-4 on the season with a 2.88 ERA. He seems to put his team in a position to win every time he takes the mound. He’s had 5 starts against the Red Sox in his career and his numbers are pretty average. My gut tells me that he will pitch a good game tonight, but the fact that the Red Sox scored 20 runs last night is a great example of how powerful their offense really is. Starter Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

BOS – I think that with so little games, you have to take a stance one way or the other. Either take Ivan Nova and fade the Red Sox bats. Or take the Red Sox bats and fade Ivan Nova. If you decide to take the Sox bats, Jacoby Ellsbury, David Ortiz, and Stephen Drew all get the lefty/right matchup with that short porch in right.

NYY – I’m a fan of Peavy, but I think the Yankees get a hold of him tonight. Some of their best bats are left handed and Peavy is allowing lefties to hit for a .726 OPS. Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson are the guys to take if you are chasing HR’s, and Brett Gardner if you want value.

St. Louis vs. Cincinnati

7:10 PM	St. Louis – ROAD					Cincinnati – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.272	0.743	17.90%	0.61		0.249	0.718	20.10%	0.58
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.239	0.679	18.90%	0.41		0.251	0.723	20.10%	0.47
SP STATS	Lynn – RHP					Cingrani – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.33	4.29	8.48	10.86		1.07	2.76	10.37	9.68
LAST 14 DAYS	2.06	7.94	5.82	4.33		0.94	2.45	2.81	3.20
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	STL vs L		STL BvP			CIN vs R		CIN BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Lance Lynn – Lynn’s splits are very similar to Shelby Miller. They are both much better pitchers at home. Lynn has a 3.20 ERA at home and a 5.49 ERA on the road. Tonight he faces a tough Reds lineup in a very hitter friendly Great American Ballpark. I know that Lynn has had good numbers against the Reds this year, but he has not pitched well over his last 4 starts, allowing at least 4 earned runs in each. Starter Rating = 4

• Tony Cingrani – Cingrani is the wildcard pick of the day. He could be the difference in one of these GPP’s. He could also get blown up by these Cardinals bats. Cingrani has a 2.63 ERA at home while holding opponents to an impressive .209 batting average. Now to the matchup, the general thought is that the Cardinals crush lefties, but as a team they are only batting .239 against lefties this season which is almost 40 points lower than their average against righties. It’s tough to do it, but I think Cingrani is the play tonight. Starter Rating = 8

Batter Grind Down

STL – Even though the team numbers against lefties aren’t great, Allen Craig, Matt Holliday, and Yadier Molina are all very good against lefties. If you aren’t taking Cingrani, I recommend any of these guys.

CIN – Jay Bruce is really the only Reds player with good numbers against Lynn, so he is in play. But with the way Lynn is pitching lately, I think the Reds find a way to score some runs. Shin-Soo Choo and Brandon Phillips are both swinging hot bats.

Tampa Bay vs. LA Angels

10:05 PM	Tampa Bay – ROAD					LA Angels – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.262	0.748	18.70%	0.62		0.263	0.743	18.90%	0.61
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.253	0.739	18.70%	0.49		0.243	0.714	19.20%	0.47
SP STATS	Price – LHP					Williams – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.09	3.30	7.24	11.39		1.39	4.68	5.72	5.50
LAST 14 DAYS	1.39	3.50	8.00	11.67		1.19	2.93	5.96	6.70
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	TBR vs R		TBR BvP			LAA vs L		LAA BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• David Price – Price hasn’t been all that sharp over his last four starts allowing an average of almost 3 earned runs per start. But he did have to face the Orioles, Yankees, and A’s in that stretch. Tonight he gets a much easier matchup against the Angels who only have a .244 batting average against lefties this season. Price is your safest play of the night and could very well end up being the best play of the night. Starter Rating = 9

• Jerome Williams – Williams has an average ERA, average K rate, and a below average matchup. He owns a 4.68 ERA on the season and faces a Rays team that wants to win a lot more than the Angels too. He also has Price as his opposing pitcher so he probably won’t get much run support. Doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure this one out. Starter Rating = 3

Batter Grind Down

TB – Matt Joyce and Kelly Johnson both have some good BvP against Williams. While I usually don’t like taking Johnson, Joyce should be high in the batting order. David Dejesus is another guy to keep an eye on, he crushes right hand pitching and should be batting leadoff.

LAA – Mike Trout is really the only Angels bat that you should consider tonight. The rest of the team is either slumping or left handed. Trout is batting .336 against lefties and riding a nice hitting streak.

Houston vs. Oakland

10:07 PM	Houston – ROAD					Oakland – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.239	0.683	25.60%	0.54		0.244	0.718	19.40%	0.59
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.237	0.678	25.30%	0.41		0.244	0.710	19.10%	0.46
SP STATS	Peacock – RHP					Gray – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.53	5.98	8.04	5.94		1.00	2.57	9.51	10.00
LAST 14 DAYS	1.88	7.84	8.02	7.05		1.18	4.24	9.00	10.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	HOU vs R		HOU BvP			OAK vs R		OAK BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Brad Peacock – Peacock has a great K rate, but has really struggled with his command. He gives up quite a few walks and ends getting himself in trouble because of it. He’s facing an A’s lineup that has made Scherzer, Verlander, Sanchez, and now Darvish look bad. I’m not taking any pitchers against them at this point. Starter Rating = 4

• Sonny Gray – This is an interesting matchup with Gray. He is facing an Astros team that he pitched 8 scoreless innings against a little while ago. But now, he is catching this Astros team at the wrong time, they have been on fire the past few weeks. As much as I would like to fade Gray tonight, I just don’t think I’m going to be able to do it. The Astros are still the Astros. Starter Rating = 8

Batter Grind Down

HOU – The Astros had problems making good contact against Gray the last time that they faced him, they only registered 4 hits while striking out 9 times. They’ve been hot lately, but I think Gray cools them off.

OAK – I don’t know how many people have noticed, but Coco Crisp and Brandon Moss are on a HR binge. Crisp has 8 HR’s in the past two weeks, that is just crazy when you consider that he is around a 10 HR a year guy. He’s found the fountain of youth and I think you ride it while it’s hot.

Arizona vs. San Francisco

10:15 PM	Arizona – ROAD					San Francisco – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.259	0.717	18.30%	0.56		0.259	0.692	16.90%	0.51
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.257	0.716	18.90%	0.45		0.261	0.701	16.80%	0.40
SP STATS	Cahill – RHP					Vogelsong – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.40	4.39	6.43	7.90		1.55	5.49	6.78	7.14
LAST 14 DAYS	1.35	2.08	6.32	9.70		1.00	2.14	4.71	10.33
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	ARI vs R		ARI BvP			SFG vs R		SFG BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Trevor Cahill – I haven’t been a big fan of Cahill this season. He has just been so inconsistent that it’s hard to trust him, even for just one game. The Giants had a big game offensively last night and may carry that over to tonight. Plus, they will get a rested Buster Posey back in the lineup. Starter Rating = 5

• Ryan Vogelsong – Vogelsong was on his way to having one of the highest ERA’s in baseball earlier in the year, then he had to go and screw it up. Vogelsong has looked much better and has hasn’t allowed more than 3 earned runs in any of his last 5 starts. He has had good success against this D-Backs team and is my favorite option of the two pitchers going in this one. Starter Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

ARI – Aaron Hill is 7/14 lifetime against Vogelsong and we have all seen how bad Vogelsong can be when he is not on.

SF – Mr. Panda had 3 HR’s yesterday, and that was in Petco! I like the matchup for him again today against Cahill. I also like a rested Buster Posey.