MLB Daily Grind Down: Wednesday, August 7th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-08-07 18:25:15

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

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Oakland vs. Cincinnati

12:35 PM	Oakland – ROAD					Cincinnati – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.243	0.710	19.50%	0.59		0.249	0.721	20.20%	0.58
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.245	0.708	19.30%	0.46		0.250	0.722	20.30%	0.47
SP STATS	Colon – RHP					Bailey – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.12	2.50	4.77	10.92		1.14	3.55	9.06	11.64
LAST 14 DAYS	1.58	2.25	2.25	8.00		0.93	1.17	7.15	14.55
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	OAK vs R		OAK BvP			CIN vs R		CIN BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5
• Favored Team – CIN -121

Pitcher Grind Down

CIN – Early game for the Reds and Bailey today. Bailey has faced Oakland once this year and pitched pretty well going 6 innings and picking up 7 K’s, but he did allow 4 earned runs. Bailey has been really good at home this season with a 2.98 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. This should be a low scoring game, but since it is in Great American Ballpark you always have to be prepared for the possibility of a lot of runs. Rating = 6

OAK – What happened to Bartolo Colon being one of the Biogenesis players getting suspended? He just gets off with no additional punishment? Colon is a pitcher that I continually find hard to take unless he has a really bad matchup. His numbers are there, but a matchup against all of those left hand bats of the Reds is a tough one. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

CIN – Colon’s gives up a much higher average and slugging percentage to left hand bats so if you are not a believer in Colon, this could be a good spot for one, two, or all of these lefties: Choo, Votto, and Bruce.

OAK – Donaldson, Crisp, and Moss all have HR’s off of Bailey, but with the A’s you never know where there production is going to come from. Maybe take a cheap value guy like Jed Lowrie, but there are better options today.

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Toronto vs. Seattle

3:40 PM	Toronto – ROAD					Seattle – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.253	0.738	18.30%	0.63		0.246	0.717	21.70%	0.56
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.253	0.749	18.50%	0.50		0.229	0.661	22.50%	0.39
SP STATS	Happ – LHP					Harang – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.55	4.91	7.09	7.00		1.27	5.27	6.47	7.40
LAST 14 DAYS						1.12	4.76	4.24	6.67
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	TOR vs R		TOR BvP			SEA vs L		SEA BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8.5
• Favored Team – SEA -110

Pitcher Grind Down

SEA – Aaron Harang has been much better at home than he has on the road, this season he has a 4.34 ERA at home which really isn’t that impressive. He’s given up 7 earned runs in two of his last four starts and should not be trusted at this time, especially against the Jays. Rating = 3

TOR – Josh Johnson came out of nowhere and pitched a great game last night, can JA Happ do the same today? I’m not going to risk my pitcher spot finding out. Happ hasn’t made a start in over three months and faces a Mariners team that really has some power. Rating = 3

Batter Grind Down

SEA – Happ is giving up a much better OPS to right hand bats, so target the guys in the lineup that are either righties or switch hitters. Kendrys Morales and Nick Franklin are both in very good spots.

TOR – Harang is giving up an OPS over .800 to left hand bats, but he hasn’t been particularly good against right hand bats either, so all of the Jays are in play today. I’m going to be targeting the power bats of Bautista, Encarnacion, and Lind.

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Baltimore vs. San Diego

3:40 PM	Baltimore – ROAD					San Diego – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.265	0.755	18.20%	0.62		0.246	0.692	20.50%	0.55
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.245	0.690	19.00%	0.42		0.242	0.672	20.60%	0.39
SP STATS	Gonzalez – RHP					Stults – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.28	3.88	6.52	9.58		1.22	3.55	5.68	9.14
LAST 14 DAYS	2.47	10.80	5.56	1.55		1.96	4.63	8.04	7.60
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	BAL vs L		BAL BvP			SDP vs R		SDP BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5
• Favored Team – BAL -125

Pitcher Grind Down

SD – Eric Stults has some wacky splits. His numbers at home are so much better than they are at home. His ERA of 2.35 at home is about half of his road ERA. Luckily for Stults, he is pitching at home, but unluckily he has to pitch against the Orioles. I think Stults could have some value on multi-pitcher sites, but not single pitcher sites. Rating = 5

BAL – Bud Norris really pitched a nice game yesterday, now it’s time for Miguel Gonzalez to do the same. Gonzalez is coming off of an awful start, and it was against the Astros no less. I think he bounces back today against the Padres as he not only gets to pitch in Petco, but he gets to face Stults as a hitter a couple of times. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

SD – No BvP to work off of here (have to love Interleague play), but I don’t really love the Padres bats at home very often. Tough place to hit and I expect a good game from Gonzalez.

BAL – Taking hitters in Petco usually isn’t my favorite thing, especially when the pitchers are both good plays, however the one Orioles bat I will be targeting is Matt Wieters who has great power against lefties.

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Detroit vs. Cleveland

7:05 PM	Detroit – ROAD					Cleveland – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.279	0.782	17.40%	0.66		0.259	0.745	21.20%	0.65
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.283	0.780	16.60%	0.52		0.254	0.736	21.90%	0.49
SP STATS	Fister – RHP					Salazar – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.18	3.52	6.67	10.59		0.50	1.50	10.50	16.00
LAST 14 DAYS	0.69	0.56	4.50	15.50
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	DET vs R		DET BvP			CLE vs R		CLE BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 8.0
• Favored Team – DET -120

Pitcher Grind Down

CLE – Danny Salazar gets the start for the Indians tonight which will be only his second career start. He has been tearing up the minor leagues and looked really impressive in his first career start against the Blue Jays. I think today is a tough spot for him, but look for him to join their rotation and quickly make a name for himself. Rating = 5

DET – Doug Fister has had 4 quality starts in a row, but he also struggled against the Indians earlier in the year. So the question becomes whether you trust how a player is currently playing or his past statistics. I’m going to lean the way of Fister’s current production. I think he will pitch well again tonight. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

CLE – If you look at the BvP numbers, Fister has really had some good success against these Indians. Only two batters have a .300 or better average against him and that is Jason Kipnis and Michael Brantley.

DET – Hard to say what will happen in Salazar’s second start. Will he show up big like he did in his first start or get overwhelmed by this Tigers offense. I think I’m going to avoid both the pitcher and the Tigers offense.

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Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia

7:05 PM	Chicago Cubs – ROAD					Philadelphia – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.242	0.705	19.70%	0.54		0.251	0.698	19.90%	0.53
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.233	0.696	21.90%	0.42		0.239	0.698	20.90%	0.42
SP STATS	Wood – LHP					Hamels – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.14	3.05	6.32	9.83		1.24	3.87	8.09	10.22
LAST 14 DAYS	1.88	5.06	6.19	7.33		1.13	1.20	6.60	12.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	CHC vs L		CHC BvP			PHI vs L		PHI BvP

What Vegas Says

• Over/Under Total Runs – 7.5
• Favored Team – PHI -175

Pitcher Grind Down

PHI – Cole Hamels is one of my favorite pitching options tonight. The Cubs are only batting .233 against lefties this season and no longer have Soriano in the lineup. Hamels has been pitching much better over the last month or so and is one of my favorite picks tonight. Rating = 9

CHC – Travis Wood is a lot like Jeff Locke, his numbers seem a lot better than what you would expect. These type of guys are hard to trust because the one day that you do finally take them, they have their bad outing that you had been waiting for. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

PHI – Carlos Ruiz is still in the bottom of the lineup, but he has been playing well with a 4 game hitting streak. I also really like the spot for Darin Ruf who has reached base something like 30 games in a row.

CHC – Junior Lake is the only Cubs bat I would even think about tonight, he has been great over the past month. That said, I don’t think he is the best option. Hamels should mow through this Cubs lineup.

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