Million Dollar Musings: Friday, June 16
CheeseIsGood, a two-time winner of a $1,000,000 first-place prize in DFS, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Friday! We have a loaded 14-game slate with a ton of everything. Aces galore, solid cheap pitching options, bats to spend on, offenses to stack, and salary savers with upside. It’s all here.
I’ll do my best to sort through everything and give you some of my favorite MLB DFS picks, but this is a slate where you can go a lot of different directions and still be doing things right.
Friday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
We have a very strong pitching slate tonight with quality options extending into all price ranges. There will be several good pitchers who I don’t even mention in passing due to the depth of this slate. I’ll sort things by pricing tiers and tell you my favorites, but this is definitely a slate where you can make a case to go a lot of different directions.
A Boatload Of Aces
Joe Ryan vs. Tigers – 27.3% K, 4.9% BB, 2.90 ERA, 3.49 SIERA
Kevin Gausman at Rangers – 33.2% K, 6.3% BB, 3.12 ERA, 2.92 SIERA
Zac Gallen vs. Guardians – 27% K, 5.5% BB, 3.09 ERA, 3.50 SIERA
Shane McClanahan at Padres – 27.8% K, 9.1% BB, 2.18 ERA, 3.80 SIERA
Sandy Alcantara at Nationals – 20.6% K, 7.8% BB, 4.75 ERA, 4.37 SIERA
Triston McKenzie at Diamondbacks – 3rd start of season [35.7% K]
Yu Darvish vs. Rays – 26.2% K, 7.8% BB, 4.30 ERA, 3.83 SIERA
Michael Kopech at Mariners – 27.5% K, 10.7% BB, 4.03 ERA, 4.13 SIERA
Kevin Gausman had been one of the best pitchers in the league over a strong six-week stretch, but that is book-ended by two disaster starts. In his most recent outing, he had a .462 BABIP, 25% HR/FB rate, and 4 walks en route to allowing 6 runs against the Twins. That is his third start of the season with 6+ runs allowed, while every other start has been ace-like, with 10 starts of 0-2 runs allowed and six double-digit strikeout games. We have to say a disaster start is in the range of outcomes, but I see no real reason for concern here. But on this slate, with a matchup against Texas and a high salary, he becomes more of just a large-field GPP pivot with upside and not any kind of necessity.
Joe Ryan is not quite at Gausman’s overall level, but he is if you just take his numbers against right-handed batters, which give him a 32.3% K rate and just 4.3% walks. He has the best matchup of any of these aces against a right-handed heavy Detroit team, making him the most obvious choice for SP1. I love him and I’m using him early and often, but I’ll just note that this is a deep enough pitching slate that I am not going anywhere near all-in on anyone.
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