Million Dollar Musings: Friday, June 23
CheeseIsGood, a two-time winner of a $1,000,000 first-place prize in DFS, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Friday. It’s only a 10-game slate, which is a little smaller than usual for a Friday night, but there is still a lot going on. We’ve got a pitching pool that lacks star power but has a lot of depth, with decent pitchers at least a dozen names deep. On the hitting side, the highlight is the Angels flying at high altitude (as they usually do, according to my understanding) but likely joined as chalk by the Padres and Blue Jays in outstanding matchups.
We’ve also got a couple weather issues to keep an eye on throughout the day according to Kevin Roth, in the Rangers-Yankees and Mets-Phillies games. This will be especially important in the Mets-Phillies game, where we have some pitchers on the radar. For now, there looks to be a good enough chance for clean games that I’m writing as if everything plays without in-game delays. But if you’re using Senga or Walker, be sure to tune into Crunch Time before making a final decision.
Grab a bagel and let’s jump in and take a look at the multitude of MLB DFS picks available tonight.
Friday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
What we find on the pitching side is that the slate is deep and jumbled but without anything to love. I see nothing that jumps out as a must-spend or cash-game lock. This is one of those slates where I end up with a clear enough primary pool for my own builds, but yours could be completely different and you’d get no argument from me. I’ll start with these three buckets:
FOUR SOMETHING LIKE ACES
Logan Webb vs. Diamondbacks – 24.5% K, 4.8% BB, 3.11 ERA, 3.19 SIERA
Kodai Senga at Phillies – 28.3% K, 13.4% BB, 3.53 ERA, 4.29 SIERA
Logan Gilbert at Orioles – 26% K, 5% BB, 4.31 ERA, 3.56 SIERA
Lucas Giolito vs. Red Sox – 24.5% K, 7.7% BB, 3.54 ERA, 4.14 SIERA
LOWER K, BORDERLINE ACES IN GOOD MATCHUPS
Chris Bassitt vs. A’s – 20.6% K, 8% BB, 4.16 ERA, 4.48 SIERA
Joe Musgrove vs. Nationals – 20.9% K, 6.5% BB, 4.22 ERA, 4.20 SIERA
Shane Bieber vs. Brewers – 17.5% K, 6.3% BB, 3.51 ERA, 4.52 SIERA
PEOPLE WITH ARMS THAT WORK MOST OF THE TIME
Taijuan Walker vs. Mets – 20.6% K, 9.7% BB, 4.31 ERA, 4.61 SIERA
Brayan Bello at White Sox – 22.2% K, 7.8% BB. 3.49 ERA, 3.93 SIERA
Kyle Gibson vs. Mariners – 17.7% K, 7.3% BB, 3.94 ERA, 4.70 SIERA
Clarke Schmidt vs. Rangers – 23.3% K, 7% BB, 4.65 ERA, 4.04 SIERA
Wade Miley at Guardians – 14.8% K, 5.8% BB, 3.28 ERA, 5.06 SIERA
Emmet Sheehan vs. Astros – 2nd career start
SORTING THE ‘ACES’
Logan Webb vs. Diamondbacks – 24.5% K, 4.8% BB, 3.11 ERA, 3.19 SIERA
Kodai Senga at Phillies – 28.3% K, 13.4% BB, 3.53 ERA, 4.29 SIERA
Logan Gilbert at Orioles – 26% K, 5% BB, 4.31 ERA, 3.56 SIERA
Lucas Giolito vs. Red Sox – 24.5% K, 7.7% BB, 3.54 ERA, 4.14 SIERA
These are talented pitchers, but nothing here is quite at the usual level of what we would deem a must-spend DFS ace. The only one of these pitchers over 26% strikeouts is Kodai Senga, and those strikeouts come with all kinds of consistency issues stemming from his wonky control. We have seen just three starts in 13 tries this season where he’s come in below 3 walks, although with his long leash, he’s got plenty of ways to get up to 6-7 innings, even with the poor control. And in those few times the walks have come down, he’s been outstanding for DFS purposes. I think at this point, I just have to slap the Snell-like ‘who knows’ label on him and say that he’s a great play when he’s low owned but not something I’m going to like as chalk. I also don’t see him as being very matchup-dependent, so I’m neither upgrading or downgrading him based on that. Officially, where I stand here is that I’m calling him my ‘SP1’ in a no-salary-cap, tournament-minded world.
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