Million Dollar Musings: Monday, July 3
CheeseIsGood, a two-time winner of a $1,000,000 first-place prize in DFS, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Almost Kind Of A Holiday! I have no idea if people with normal lives have some kind of day off today, but I think maybe that’s the case? I don’t know, Happy Monday anyway! All I know for sure is that there is someone making me ribs right now and then there will be fireworks. Sounds like a holiday.
As for baseball, we’ve got just a 6-game main slate tonight that is tilted towards the pitching side. It will end up as an ‘everything is viable’ kind of slate but with a pretty small and obvious top tier on both sides of the ledger. Let’s dig on in and take a look at some MLB DFS picks for this Monday night.
Monday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
Joe Ryan vs. Royals – 27.3% K, 3.9% BB, 3.44 ERA, 3.45 SIERA
Blake Snell vs. Angels – 31.5% K, 11.6% BB, 3.21 ERA, 3.78 SIERA
Logan Webb vs. Mariners – 24% K, 4.8% BB, 3.43 ERA, 3.24 SIERA
Bryan Woo at Giants – 33.3% K, 6.3% BB, 4.37 ERA, 2.99 SIERA
Mitch Keller at Dodgers – 27.3% K, 6.5% BB, 3.34 ERA, 3.50 SIERA
Domingo German vs. Orioles – 23.5% K, 7.5% BB, 4.54 ERA, 4.16 SIERA
Tyler Wells at Yankees – 26.5% K, 5.6% BB, 3.21 ERA, 3.78 SIERA
Gavin Williams vs. Braves – 3rd start [21.8% K, 8.7% BB]
Bryce Elder at Guardians – 20.5% K, 7.3% BB, 2.44 ERA, 4.08 SIERA
Austin Cox at Twins – 2nd start, 16 IP [24.6% K, 13.1% BB]
Jaime Barria at Padres – 19.6% K, 7.8% BB, 2.92 ERA, 4.44 SIERA
I’m writing this early Monday morning, and there are still a couple question marks on this slate. Blake Snell has not been officially confirmed yet, but I’m just going to write this assuming he’s the starter tonight. The Dodgers are a bigger mystery, as Clayton Kershaw is due up next in the rotation, but there are rumblings that he will be placed on the IL with shoulder inflammation. Even if he starts tonight, I would not be messing with him on this slate with those shoulder issues. If it’s not Kershaw, it could be Michael Grove, who would be somewhat viable as a cheap SP2 on DK.
OK, onto this loaded pitching slate. There are nine good pitchers on this slate who are completely viable on this or any slate. But we do get some matchup-based cuts with Mitch Keller, Bryce Elder, and Gavin Williams. All three of these guys are going to remain in my MME pool, but if you’re looking to shrink your pool, these are the easiest places to start.
The first big decision point comes up top with Joe Ryan and Blake Snell. Snell continues to pile up the strikeouts, with four straight double-digit K outings. Even his control has been unusually strong recently, though that’s never safe to bank on. However, when he’s pitching like this, even if he were to struggle with the control and give up some power, the strikeouts give him a solid floor and a slate-winning ceiling. DK has made the decision easy by leaving Snell priced down at $8,600, while FD has him priced up at $10,900, which is $1,000 more than Joe Ryan.
What I’ll say on the DK side is that Snell is likely to end up extremely chalky, and there are still eight other good pitchers on this slate. I actually find myself more interested in getting over the field on Snell on FD, where the salary will keep his ownership in check. As great as he’s looked recently, this is still not a guy who thrills me as mega-chalk. I’m not going to get too sneaky on DK, and he’ll be my highest owned pitcher. But I’m not trying to get way ahead of the field here and will be looking more to fade in smaller-field tournaments where his ownership will skyrocket.
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