Million Dollar Musings: Monday, September 18

CheeseIsGood, a two-time winner of a $1,000,000 first-place prize in DFS, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.

Happy Monday! We’ve got a solid looking 8-game MLB slate with a good bit of everything, to be followed by a glorious Monday Night Football game featuring the first 300-yard rushing game of the season from Nick Chubb. But before we get to that, we’ve got some MLB DFS picks to sort through, including a chalky Lance Lynn, which seems like the scariest of chalk in any lineup.

Monday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

We have an interesting pitching slate, with three expensive aces in tough matchups followed by a sizeable price gap on DK down to a group of mid-range pitchers in much better matchups. The pricing is a bit more condensed on FD, but let’s start with a glance at the three salary groupings using DK pricing:

THREE ACES

Freddy Peralta at Cardinals – 31.2% K, 8.4% BB, 3.79 ERA, 3.48 SIERA
Zack Wheeler at Braves – 27.3% K, 4.9% BB, 3.70 ERA, 3.49 SIERA
Justin Verlander vs. Orioles – 21.2% K, 6.7% BB, 3.39 ERA, 4.48 SIERA

SOLID UPPER MID-TIER

Michael Wacha vs. Rockies – 21.9% K, 8.5% BB, 3.43 ERA, 4.58 SIERA
Lance Lynn vs. Tigers – 23.8% K, 7.9% BB, 5.94 ERA, 4.25 SIERA
Jordan Montgomery vs. Red Sox – 21% K, 6.3% BB, 3.47 ERA, 4.29 SIERA
Mike Clevinger at Nationals – 21.1% K, 7.9% BB, 3.61 ERA, 4.78 SIERA
Bryan Woo at A’s – 24.1% K, 7% BB, 4.16 ERA, 4.09 SIERA
JP Sears vs. Mariners – 21.6% K, 6.7% BB, 4.45 ERA, 4.65 SIERA

CHEAP DARTS OR NONSENSE

Kutter Crawford at Rangers – 24.6% K, 7.1% BB, 4.26 ERA, 4.07 SIERA
Kyle Wright vs. Phillies – 20.7% K, 10.8% BB, 7.48 ERA, 4.53 SIERA
Joan Adon vs. White Sox – 19.2% K, 9.3% BB, 5.92 ERA, 4.93 SIERA

IS THERE ANY NEED TO SPEND UP?

The short answer here is no. I would certainly say that Freddy Peralta has the most upside, and in any kind of multi-entry build, he is in my primary pool. But St. Louis has an extremely low-strikeout lineup, with six batters in the projected lineup below an 18% K rate and no one above 24%. They also have enough power and patience to cause him trouble if he’s not all the way at the top of his game. We’ve seen him in elite form often enough in the second half of the season that I’m still calling him my SP1 in a no-salary-cap world, but especially on DK where he’s $11,300, I’m not sacrificing my entire roster to get to him.

Zack Wheeler is off my board for this slate. He’s absolutely good enough to beat anyone, including the Braves, but there’s just no reason to mess with it on this type of slate.

Justin Verlander has a slightly better matchup than Peralta or Wheeler, but it’s still far from ideal, and he doesn’t have the type of strikeout stuff to make me want to pay top dollar when there are similar pitchers in better matchups at a discount.

Basically, for these top three, Peralta is in my primary pool, Verlander is in my MME pool, and Wheeler missing my cut. But none of the three are priorities in any way.

I think the primary decision point on this slate comes with Lance Lynn. He should be heavy chalk on DK and moderate chalk on FD with this matchup against the Tigers. Beyond the matchup, he also has upside from his pitch count, which is as high as anyone in the league. However, as good as the matchup and the projections look here, there is an obvious issue – he might not be any good. In 22 innings over his last four starts, this joker has managed just 6 strikeouts to go along with 8 walks, 20 runs, and 9 HRs. YIKES! Of course, that’s small sample, and the matchups were much tougher than what he faces tonight. I’m merely pointing out that this is not some can’t-miss ace. This is an absolutely can-miss pitcher.

Assuming we see six righties for Detroit, I would still project Lynn to be the best points-per-dollar pitcher and in the discussion for top raw points pitcher. I would also say that only Peralta matches his realistic ceiling. So, please don’t take any of my negative comments here to say that he’s a bad play. But for me, the horrendous current form is enough for me to want to take an underweight stance in tournaments when we have so many other solid pitchers priced around him.

If there’s a second chalk mid-range pitcher, it’s likely either Michael Wacha or Bryan Woo. However, because that’s two pitchers splitting up what should be already lowered ownership thanks to Lynn, I’m not too worried about it.

Michael Wacha has also not been great recently, with sketchy control and not enough strikeouts to make up for it. This one is even more about the matchup than it is with Lynn. The good version of Lynn can post a good DFS start against anybody, but Wacha needs a little more help. My lean here is that with the matchups being so similar, assuming we get some sort of split-up ownership, I will play Lynn ahead of Wacha. What I really want to avoid is playing the two of them together.

If Bryan Woo had Lynn’s pitch count, he’d be the SP1. But he doesn’t, so he’s not. Ta-da! Woo’s splits are as big as Lynn’s, and I’m not going to make a final decision here until I see the Oakland lineup. Assuming that it’s five lefties, Woo is off my board on FD at his salary. But on DK, $7,200 is still a little too cheap, and I’m playing him ahead of Wacha.

In what seems to be the trend for tonight’s pitchers, JP Sears has also seen a dip in his strikeouts recently. He has not topped 3 Ks in his last three starts, while he has multiple walks in six straight outings. I certainly don’t love that, and I also don’t love a fly ball lefty against a team with a lot of right-handed power. The real bugaboo on this slate is that unless Peralta or Lynn have something like a ceiling game, it doesn’t really look to me like pitching is going to decide things. If I’m playing for ‘safety,’ I side with Woo ahead of Sears in this game.

That thought of pitching being more of a secondary priority on this slate makes me like Mike Clevinger much more than I expected to. While all these other mid-range pitchers have been floundering, Clevinger has been outstanding in all but one of his starts over the last month. Going back to the All-Star Break, we’re looking at nine starts with a 23.5% K rate and just 5.9% walks, with five quality starts in his last seven games. Sure, Washington doesn’t strike out a lot, but they have less power than all these other good matchups. This is not where I expected to land when I first looked at this slate, but I think Clevinger is going to be my highest-owned pitcher. The fact that he should also be somewhat off the board is an added plus.

Jordan Montgomery is fine, and Boston is a much better matchup for left-handed pitchers, but they are still not a great one. I’m siding with Clevinger here, and I’m playing Lynn and Woo ahead of Montgomery, leaving him as just an MME dart.

CHEAP DARTS?

It doesn’t look to me like there is any real need to goof around with the cheaper pitching. If it were a bigger priority to play the $10k+ pitchers, then we might need something here, but this is just another part of the reason why I don’t see myself playing much Peralta or Verlander. I would so much rather just play two of Lynn, Woo, Clevinger, Wacha, Sears, and Montgomery instead of chasing a nonsense Joan Adon or Kyle Wright in order to fit in Peralta.

I only call Kyle Wright ‘nonsense’ because he’s just one start back off the IL and not stretched out. Kutter Crawford is also not nonsense, but there’s not quite enough discount to have much desire to play him against Texas.

PITCHING CLIFF NOTES

I will say again that if salary cap didn’t exist, I would call Freddy Peralta the SP1, and Justin Verlander would be in the thick of the discussion for SP2. However, salary does exist, and those two are just barely, if at all, ahead of a half-dozen good pitchers in far better matchups at much lower salaries.

I expect to see Lance Lynn as the highest-owned pitcher on both sites and massive chalk on DK. While I totally get it and am absolutely playing him, I will be under the field. I expect him to be paired most often with Michael Wacha or Bryan Woo, and I will also be under the field on Wacha. My preference to get off that chalk is with Mike Clevinger, followed by JP Sears. I wouldn’t argue with you to play Jordan Montgomery in that spot either.

On FD, it’s a little easier to get Peralta, and I will definitely go out of my way to get up to Peralta ahead of Lynn chalk. I expect Lynn and Wacha to pick up so much of the mid-range ownership that I’ll gladly just side with Clevinger instead.

Monday Hitting: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

I have just two tiers of offenses, with just a couple obvious top-of-the-slate teams. Having pitchers like Adam Wainwright, Ty Blach, and Joan Adon makes it easy to find a few offenses to like, but after that, it’s mostly good teams against good pitching.

TOP TIER OFFENSE

Milwaukee Brewers at Adam Wainwright
SD Padres vs. Ty Blach
Houston Astros vs. John Means
LA Dodgers vs. Eduardo Rodriguez
Atlanta Braves vs. Zack Wheeler
Philadelphia Phillies at Kyle Wright
Texas Rangers vs. Kutter Crawford
Chicago White Sox at Joan Adon
Seattle Mariners at JP Sears

The numbers from Adam Wainwright against lefties this season are just so bad that it’s difficult to even look at them. 10.5% K rate, 12.3% BB rate, .263 ISO, .455 wOBA. So bad. Christian Yelich, Carlos Santana, Sal Frelick, and Rowdy Tellez are immediately in the primary pool, and then with just a 12.1% K rate and no batted ball skills to righties, William Contreras and Willy Adames are also in the primary pool. The Brewers are my top stack, and while they should be everyone’s, since I’m not playing chalk pitching, I’ll gladly take the free squares here.

Ty Blach has similarly non-existent strikeout ability and also no ability to keep the ball on the ground. Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado are probably my two favorite spend-ups on the slate, and the Padres stack is 2nd behind Milwaukee.

Joan Adon is also bad, but he’s got more strikeout ability to both sides of the plate than either Wainwright or Blach, and he’s facing the White Sox. With more of his struggles coming against lefties, the lefty-less White Sox are more of an MME leftover stack, with the exception of Luis Robert as a spend-up and the one lefty with some power, Gavin Sheets, as a primary value option.

Those three teams are somewhat obvious, and then it gets tricky. The Braves and Dodgers are both facing very good opposing pitchers, so all I can say here is that these are both teams who have slate-winning upside every day, but I can’t project it or plan for it happening tonight.

With the Braves, Zack Wheeler is elite against righties, so only Matt Olson and Ozzie Albies make the primary list, and the spend-up righties are in MME full stacks only for me tonight.

Eduardo Rodriguez is also not a guy I love spending top dollar against. Of course Mookie Betts and Will Smith are in play here, and you can always stack the Dodgers, but there’s really no obvious flaw in his skill set, so it’s more playing for an outlier or bullpen shenanigans.

We’ve seen very little of Kyle Wright this season, and what we have seen has not been good, especially against lefties. It’s certainly possible that he snaps back into his previous form, but I think it’s well worth playing Phillies stacks, along with Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper as one-offs, in primary lineups. In the context of this slate, the 2023 version of Wright is in the tier of most attackable pitchers, and until he shows otherwise, that’s how I’m playing it. Officially, the Phillies check in at #3 on my list behind only the Brewers and Padres.

Houston against John Andy Means is similar to the Phillies. This is a guy who has a good long-term track record but just hasn’t pitched enough this season to know what we’re getting. He managed just 1 strikeout against 2 homers in his first start off the IL, and all the high-contact righties, along with the lefty power, are not going to make it easy on him. Over the long run, he’s good enough against lefties that I don’t love spending up on Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, and then Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are also a pricey duo. Where I end up is that I prefer the Astros as a spend-up stack ahead of the Braves and Dodgers, but I don’t like them as much as the Phillies.

The Rangers are in a similar boat to the Braves and Dodgers. Kutter Crawford is just not attackable enough to love loading up the expensive bats, and only Corey Seager makes my primary pool. I will absolutely have a Rangers stack in my first 20 lineups, but they are not at the level of the Brewers, Padres, and Phillies.

The Mariners are certainly stackable, but in Oakland, with a bunch of strikeouts in the lineup, my preference here is just power-hunting with Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, Cal Raleigh, or Teoscar Hernandez. All four of these guys are fine where they fit, but overall, it’s just sort of a leftover, back half of the top tier sort of offense.

EVERYTHING ELSE

Boston Red Sox at Jordan Montgomery
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Freddy Peralta
Baltimore Orioles at Justin Verlander
Washington Nationals vs. Mike Clevinger
Colorado Rockies at Michael Wacha
Oakland A’s vs. Bryan Woo
Detroit Tigers at Lance Lynn

If I were just making 3-5 lineups, I would not have anything from this tier. Possibly even into 20 lineups or so, I’d be almost entirely focused on my top tier. But I can find reasons to throw darts down in this range.

The good pitchers, Freddy Peralta and Justin Verlander, can allow power, and they face teams with plenty of it.

The OK pitchers, Jordan Montgomery and Mike Clevinger, are just that, OK. At the very least, I am including CJ Abrams, Adam Duvall, and Justin Turner in my MME pool.

And then the bad offenses, the Rockies, A’s, and Tigers, are all facing chalky-ish pitchers with obvious problems. Lance Lynn has been a straight-up disaster for multiple long stretches this season, and at least Kerry Carpenter, Parker Meadows, and Zach McKinstry make my list. This is one of those spots where I tell you I can’t really officially recommend Detroit as some great play; I can only tell you that I’m playing them.

Bryan Woo has massive splits, with just a 17.6% K rate and a .256 ISO allowed to lefties. I love Ryan Noda and Seth Brown as salary-savers, and will have at least a couple full stacks here.

The Rockies will end up in last place on my list but just know that it’s a slate where all 16 teams will make my MME stacking list.

HITTING CLIFF NOTES

If I were only making 5-10 lineups, I’d be focused heavily on the Brewers and Padres, with the Phillies next in line. The names listed in the sections below are what I would filter in around those three offenses. After those three teams, I start spreading out quickly, led by good teams against good pitchers, with the Astros, Braves, Rangers, and Dodgers.

STACKS – Brewers, Padres, Phillies, small gap, Astros, Rangers, Braves, Dodgers, Mariners, White Sox, small gap, Red Sox, A’s, Cardinals, Orioles, Tigers, Nationals, Rockies

INDIVIDUAL BATS – Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Kyle Schwarber, Christian Yelich, Corey Seager, Bryce Harper, Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez, Luis Robert, Mookie Betts, Willy Adames

SALARY SAVERS

FD – Eloy Jimenez, Gavin Sheets, J.T. Realmuto, Rowdy Tellez, Adam Duvall, Jeremy Pena, Xander Bogaerts, Jurickson Profar, Ryan Noda, Seth Brown, Cal Raleigh, Eugenio Suarez, Kerry Carpenter

DK -Brandon Marsh, Gavin Sheets, Rowdy Tellez, Brice Turang, Ceddanne Rafaela, Jurickson Profar, Luis Campusano, Eguy Rosario, Ryan Noda, Seth Brown, Lawrence Butler, Parker Meadows, Enrique Hernandez

Image Credit: Getty Images