Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks Today for Saturday 3/28

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2026-03-28 16:03:20 Premium Content Part of the product MLB DFS

Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood) has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks today. Cheese, one of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy sports and a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the March 28, 2026 MLB DFS slate.

Happy Saturday! We have a busy day with games spread out all over the place. The main evening slate is a 7-gamer that begins at 7:10pm on both sites, but we’ve also got a big early slate on DK with a 2:15pm ET start. FD has split up the early games into two different sets, so I’m just going to be focusing on that bigger DK slate for the early start. We have another remarkably calm weather day for early season baseball, with all the games being either indoors or free of precipitation.

Saturday Early Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on DraftKings

Salary is not much of an issue at all on this slate, as the most expensive pitcher on the board is just $8,600. I’m going to group everyone over $7k together in this top tier, and then point out just a couple cheaper options that shouldn’t really be necessary.

TOP-TIER PITCHING

• Dylan Cease vs. A’s – 29.8% K, 9.8% BB, 4.55 ERA, 3.58 SIERA
• Jacob deGrom at Phillies – 27.7% K, 5.5% BB, 2.97 ERA, 3.32 SIERA
• Aaron Nola vs. Rangers – 24% K, 6.9% BB, 6.01 ERA, 3.81 SIERA
• Sonny Gray at Reds – 26.7% K, 5% BB, 4.28 ERA, 3.29 SIERA
• Kyle Bradish vs. Twins – 32 IP – 37.3% K, 7.9% BB
• Taj Bradley at Orioles – 21% K, 9.3% BB, 5.05 ERA, 4.45 SIERA
• Eury Perez vs. Rockies – 27.3% K, 8.3% BB, 4.25 ERA, 3.80 SIERA
• Cade Horton vs. Nationals – 20.4% K, 6.9% BB, 2.67 ERA, 4.26 SIERA
• David Peterson vs. Pirates – 20.7% K, 9% BB, 4.22 ERA, 4.09 SIERA

It doesn’t seem like we are that far removed from a time when Jacob deGrom was the best pitcher in the world. But now, we have a guy who hadn’t reached 100 pitches in a season since 2019 until he stayed moderately healthy in 2025 and managed to make 30 starts. He was still a fantastic real-life pitcher and a good DFS pitcher, but his 27.7% strikeout rate counts as disappointment based on how good he had been before that. His pitch count was pretty carefully monitored, and I’d expect we see that again this season, at least early on. I will never doubt his talent or his ability to shut down any offense on any day, but I also can’t be thrilled about using him in this first start against the Phillies.

Aaron Nola is another former ace who is still a very good pitcher, but he is not anywhere near what he used to be. He missed time in 2025, but now he has back-to-back seasons right at 24% strikeouts and 6-7% walks, so until further notice, this is just who he is. It is certainly concerning that his ERA ballooned to 6.01 last year, mostly due to an 18.2% HR/FB rate, but I really don’t see any reason to think that continues. I will say that’s the third straight year with a home run rate considerably above league average, with the vast majority of the damage coming from left-handed bats. With all of that put together, I am guessing we have a 24% K-rate pitcher with home run issues to lefties. Do we want that today for $8,100 against Texas? For me, I’d say not really. They should use 5 lefties, and they are an above-average offense, so I’m going to skip both pitchers in this game in primary lineups.

Dylan Cease renewed his passport as he moves to a new team north of the border this season. His 2025 ERA looks scary, but he really looked about the same as ever, just with worse luck on batted balls. The control is always a bit of a question, and with a fly-ball lean, a team like the A’s could do some damage, but he also looks like the highest upside pitcher on this slate to me. He was up at 83 pitches in his last spring start, so he should have plenty of leash for his 30% strikeout ability to give him some real ceiling here. The range of outcomes is still pretty wide, so this is not an all-in kind of pitcher, but he is my SP1 today.

Sonny Gray faces a Cincinnati team that has 6 batters in the projected lineup over 25% strikeouts. They do have some power, and it’s in a ballpark that’s good for hitting home runs, but I’d still call this a plus matchup. Interestingly, Gray’s splits flipped pretty dramatically last season, with a 29.1% strikeout rate to lefties but just 23.9% (with power issues) to righties. That’s the opposite of his 2024 numbers when he was dominant against righties, so I’m not certain what we’re going to get from him this year. That makes me a little nervous, which is what puts Cease ahead of him today, but Gray is still on my board ahead of deGrom and Nola.

Kyle Bradish is an interesting case. He made just 8 starts in 2024, then 6 starts last season, but the results were hard to argue with, going over a 30% strikeout rate in both of those brief campaigns. We can’t take too much from 6 starts and 32 innings, but 37.3% K is 37.3% K, and that’s fantastic. Even if he fell all the way back down to the 25% strikeout rate of his last full season, that would make him a pretty good pitcher. My lean is to go into this season assuming that the 25% K range is more likely than 30%+, and with that, he falls a step behind Cease and Gray. I think he’s playable for the “what if,” but he misses my primary cut.

Eury Perez had some bad games on the road last season, but he was a dominant pitcher at home with a 29.8% strikeout rate and a 2.93 ERA. This kid is just 186 innings into his career, and we’ve seen a 28.1% strikeout rate and a 113 Stuff+ that backs up his pedigree. Realistically, he’s still somewhere in between his great home numbers and shaky road numbers from 2025, but there is a ton of upside potential here. Even just taking his overall numbers and the 3.80 SIERA from last season, pitching at home against the Rockies would put him in the discussion for SP1 today. I slightly prefer Cease, but it’s close, and Perez is my SP2.

Taj Bradley is missing my cut altogether. He fell off tremendously last season, and while I think he’ll be fine, I need to see him turn things around before I jump on board in a tough matchup.

Cade Horton was real-life fantastic in his rookie season with a 2.67 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, but there’s really nothing yet to suggest that his low .258 BABIP or 7.3% HR/FB rate were more than just good old-fashioned luck. Perhaps he’s a guy with some ability to beat the league average in those numbers, but there’s nothing tremendous about his batted ball numbers to suggest that’s true. At the same time, he’s young and a very good prospect, so even if those numbers drop off, he can still improve everywhere else around them. The matchup is pretty good, but Washington is really not a high-strikeout team against righties, and the Wrigley wind won’t help him today. I think he’s fine, but not a priority.

David Peterson is always a wild card with his control, but while he used to make up for that with high strikeouts, he now has back-to-back seasons with below-average strikeouts, sitting in the 20% range. With his 54% ground balls, that’s acceptable, but certainly not exciting. The matchup is a plus, and if salary mattered, I’d be somewhat interested here at just $7,300. I still have him in my pool, hanging around the Bradish and Horton category, and if I do end up needing those few extra dollars, I’m fine to settle on him.

CHEAP DARTS

• Joe Boyle at Cardinals – 25.7% K, 12.4% BB, 4.67 ERA, 4.24 SIERA
• Michael McGreevy vs. Rays – 14.5% K, 5% BB, 4.42 ERA, 4.57 SIERA

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