Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks for Thursday, May 30th
CheeseIsGood, a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Thursday! I hope you’ve been enjoying your week so far. I am happy to be able to pop back in today for some Musings before I get back to the wedding grind tomorrow and through the weekend. We’ve got a slow day in MLB, with a pitching-heavy 4-game main slate starting at 7:10 PM ET. If you’re playing the early 3-gamer, we’ll have some Expert tags and analysis in our MLB lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to get you pointed in the right direction.
Thursday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
We have a strong pitching slate, with at least 5 of the 8 pitchers looking viable at first glance. Because no one is priced up, I don’t think we need to mess with Trevor Williams or Patrick Sandoval in tough matchups, but even they are not bad pitchers. We have had a shakeup with the Atlanta staff, and instead of Reynaldo Lopez, it looks like it will be Ray Kerr on the mound. I’ll toss him in the cheap nonsense pool with Sandoval and Williams, but this is what the top five looks like:
HOW MANY IN THE TOP TIER? FIVE GUYS
Zac Gallen at Mets – 25.9% K, 6.5% BB, 3.12 ERA, 3.38 SIERA
Jack Flaherty at Red Sox – 33.3% K, 3.7% BB, 3.84 ERA, 2.26 SIERA
Nick Pivetta vs. Tigers – 27.7% K, 4.2% BB, 4.20 ERA, 3.09 SIERA
Christian Scott vs. Diamondbacks – 22.8% K, 5.4% BB, 3.97 ERA, 3.69 SIERA
Carlos Rodon at Angels – 22.2% K, 7.4% BB, 2.95 ERA, 4.11 SIERA
Jack Flaherty has far and away the best strikeout rate on this slate, and remarkably, he also has the lowest walk rate. He’s had a lot of bad luck on batted balls, while some of these other pitchers have gone the other way, but to my eye, this is clearly the SP1. He has 6+ strikeouts in all but 1 of his starts this season, with 4 of his last 7 starts coming with 9+ strikeouts. Combining that much upside with elite control would make him my SP1 in basically any matchup. Adding in a matchup against the mediocre Boston lineup, he is my starting point.
Zac Gallen is still pitching like a real-life ace, but the DFS outcomes are a little more up and down. He does have a ceiling, but it’s just not anywhere near as consistent as Flaherty’s. This is a nice ballpark boost, and it’s a decent matchup, even before accounting for the possibility of seeing a Mets lineup without one or both of Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor. For me, Gallen is just going to end up as my SP3, though realistically, he is more of the SP2. I just prefer taking the higher strikeout upside we find later with another pitcher, which means Gallen is not a high priority play for me at the most expensive salary on the slate. I have no issue with him being in any of my lineups, and I have no issue with anyone else calling him their SP2 (or really even their SP1).
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