Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks Today for Tuesday 4/1

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2025-04-01 18:10:27 Premium Content Part of the product MLB DFS

Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood) has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks. Cheese, one of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy sports and a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate.

Happy April! We open the new month with an 11-game slate, with a few teams back to the top of the rotation and a lack of exciting offense with clear upside. We’ll see what happens as we dig through things, but at first glance, I’m seeing a small pitching pool to focus on with a spread-it-out approach on the hitting side. We also have a little weather to keep an eye on, most notably with the MIN/CWS game, so be sure to keep an eye on the MLB weather page as the day moves along.

With that, let’s dive in and see what we can find in the way of MLB DFS picks for this Tuesday night slate.

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Tuesday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

We’ve got a good mix of pitchers, with some teams getting back to the top of their rotation while other teams have some options that are pretty easy to dismiss. I’m going to put the group of 10 pitchers priced at $8,000 and above on DK as the top tier, and then I will consider everyone else in the cheaper tier. The FD pricing is a bit more spread out up top, but it follows close to the same list of names.

A HANDFUL OF ACES

• Logan Gilbert vs. Tigers – 27.4% K, 4.6% BB, 3.23 ERA, 3.19 SIERA
• Chris Sale at Dodgers – 32.1% K, 5.6% BB, 2.38 ERA, 2.80 SIERA
• Corbin Burnes at Yankees – 23.1% K, 6.1% BB, 2.92 ERA, 3.75 SIERA
• Michael King vs. Guardians – 27.7% K, 8.7% BB, 2.95 ERA, 3.63 SIERA
• Justin Steele at A’s – 24.3% K, 6.7% BB, 3.07 ERA, 3.74 SIERA
• Logan Webb at Astros – 20.5% K, 5.9% BB, 3.47 ERA, 3.61 SIERA
• Luis Severino vs. Cubs – 21.2% K, 7.9% BB, 3.91 ERA, 4.22 SIERA
• Jose Berrios vs. Nationals – 19.5% K, 6.9% BB, 3.60 ERA, 4.33 SIERA
• Shane Baz vs. Pirates – 21.6% K, 8.5% BB, 3.06 ERA, 4.33 SIERA
• Dustin May vs. Braves – 18.2% K, 8.6% BB, 2.63 ERA, 4.87 SIERA

You can just glance at these numbers very quickly and see a clear dividing line in strikeout ability. We have three pitchers over 27% strikeouts, another two over 23%, and then five who are below the league average of 22%. Of course, strikeout rate alone is the not the deciding factor of everything, but when adding in all the factors, with the possible exception of Logan Webb, these strikeout rates are going to set my pool tonight.

Rather than starting up top, let me just say that Dustin May, Jose Berrios, Luis Severino, and Shane Baz are nothing more than deep MME dart throws. These are all fine pitchers, but I see them as a clear step behind the rest. I also have very little interest in Corbin Burnes. In general, I’m hopeful that we get some sort of bounce-back from Burnes’ strikeout rate this season, but it’s been a steady decline the past couple years. He’s still real-life good, turning into something more like a Logan Webb, getting by on control, soft contact, and ground balls. That’s all fine and good, but even without factoring in any kind of potential torpedo bat nonsense, I don’t feel the need to play a lower-strikeout ace in Yankee Stadium right now.

So that leaves us with….Five Guys! Logan Gilbert, Chris Sale, Michael King, Justin Steele, and Logan Webb.

On DK, where the salaries are all bunched tightly, Logan Gilbert looks like the easy SP1. He was as good as ever in his opening start, with 8 strikeouts in 7 strong innings, and with a home matchup against a high-strikeout opponent, I will not overthink this one. It’s a little different on FD where he’s up at $10,600, but he’s still the SP1 there.

If matchup didn’t matter, Chris Sale would be the SP1, and even against the Dodgers, his skill set is so elite that he is going to be in the primary pool on DK. Even though he allowed 3 runs, his stuff looked every bit as elite as last season, so for me, he is a pitcher I will play in any matchup. But let’s look at these other aces before deciding if Sale is the SP2 or if someone else can sneak into that spot.

Michael King had rough go of it in his opening start, with 4 walks while failing to make it out of the 3rd inning against Atlanta. There was nothing wrong with his velocity, and this was almost certainly just a random outlier bad start.

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