Million Dollar Musings: Tuesday, July 25
CheeseIsGood, a two-time winner of a $1,000,000 first-place prize in DFS, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Tuesday! We’ve got a busy night coming up, with a 12-game slate that looks to be pretty tangled on both sides of the ledger. We’ve also got some weather issues to contend with, as at least a couple of the East Coast games have some Orange in the title in the early morning forecast from Kevin Roth. For now, I’ll leave those games in the analysis, but be sure to check the afternoon report and tune into Crunch Time if using players from those games.
I’m going to be able to narrow my favorite MLB DFS picks down to a reasonable level on both the pitching and hitting sides today, but this is one of those slates where we have a ton of viable options that just aren’t going to fit in my pool.
Tuesday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
This is a solid pitching slate, with at least 10 pitchers that immediately jump out as looking viable on DK. I’ll mention some more cheap nonsense after that, but primarily, this is what I am looking at tonight, broken up based on DK pricing tiers:
ACES OR SOMETHING LIKE IT
Pablo Lopez vs. Mariners – 30.2% K, 7% BB, 4.22 ERA, 3.39 SIERA
Blake Snell vs. Pirates – 31.6% K, 13% BB, 2.67 ERA, 3.98 SIERA
Corbin Burnes vs. Reds – 25.4% K, 8.5% BB, 3.49 ERA, 4.06 SIERA
George Kirby at Twins – 21.7% K, 2.3% BB, 3.23 ERA, 3.80 SIERA
Andrew Abbott at Brewers – 26.8% K, 8.5% BB, 2.10 ERA, 4.36 SIERA
Justin Verlander at Yankees – 20.6% K, 7.6% BB, 3.47 ERA, 4.56 SIERA
Julio Urias vs. Blue Jays – 23% K, 5.4% BB, 5.02 ERA, 4.07 SIERA
On both DK and FD, these seven pitchers are all priced above $9,000, with the exception of George Kirby, who is slightly below ($8,700 on DK). Going by salary, we also find Charlie Morton in this price range, but between the matchup and the weather, he misses my cut.
Blake Snell always has slate-winning upside, but the more good pitchers there are on a slate, the less I feel the need to chase it with his risk. Snell was already starting to falter with the control in frightening fashion, and he took it to a new level last week, with 7 walks in 5 innings. That is now four straight starts of 3+ walks, and the lack of runs allowed is simply not going to last. This does nothing to dampen his potential upside, as he still has the strikeout ability and the 100+ pitch count, but officially, he is not at the top of my list. I’ll wait to see projected ownership later, but my hunch is that he will be somewhat popular on DK, and he’s the most expensive pitcher on FD, leaving him as just an MME option for me.
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