Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks Today for Tuesday 5/6

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2025-05-06 15:53:46 Premium Content Part of the product MLB DFS

Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood) has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks. Cheese, one of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy sports and a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate.

Happy Tuesday! We have a typical Tuesday with a big 12-game slate starting at the usual 7:05 p.m. ET. There is a good mix of everything with a loaded tier of aces, a loaded top tier of stacks, and at least potentially a Coors Field game. I say potentially because the DET/COL in Coors Field is the one spot with an Orange rating to start the day on the MLB weather page. This is obviously important to keep an eye on, and I won’t be finalizing any lineups until we get more clarity there later this afternoon.

Editor’s Note: Looking for more places to play? Check out our Sleeper promo code and PrizePicks promo code, two of the best DFS apps available today.

Tuesday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

We are loaded with aces, which is going to have me giving the X button to some very good pitchers. It’s reasonable to just play all these guys in MME, but I’m going to narrow my pool as much as possible tonight.

ACES AND MORE ACES

• Paul Skenes at Cardinals – 24.8% K, 4.8% BB, 2.74 ERA, 3.14 SIERA
• Zack Wheeler at Rays – 32.8% K, 5.2% BB, 3.48 ERA, 2.51 SIERA
• Chris Sale vs. Reds – 29.3% K, 5.7% BB, 4.84 ERA, 2.94 SIERA
• Michael King at Yankees – 29.5% K, 7.7% BB, 2.09 ERA, 3.11 SIERA
• Pablo Lopez vs. Orioles – 23.2% K, 3.6% BB, 2.25 ERA, 3.23 SIERA
• Drew Rasmussen vs. Phillies – 25.4% K, 5.9% BB, 2.64 ERA, 3.26 SIERA
• Seth Lugo vs. White Sox – 19.9% K, 7% BB, 3.07 ERA, 4.11 SIERA
• Matthew Liberatore vs. Pirates – 22.% K, 2.3% BB, 3.44 ERA, 3.18 SIERA
• Zac Gallen vs. Mets – 25.9% K, 10.8% BB, 4.93 ERA, 3.94 SIERA
• Andrew Abbott at Braves – 29.1% K, 15.2% BB, 2.84 ERA, 4.35 SIERA

The salaries of these top pitchers are all within $2,000 of each other on DK, with just slightly more separation on FD. There are certainly places where the salary might make the difference in who you can play, but for the most part, I don’t see that being the deciding factor.

I’ll also say that while reasonable arguments can be made for all these pitchers, I find it extremely easy to call Zack Wheeler the SP1 and Chris Sale the SP2. There is just no one more consistent that Zack Wheeler, and he just keeps getting better year after year. He is at a career-high 32.8% K rate while maintaining his elite control, and I see no reason to doubt it. On top of the skills, he has the most consistent leash of any ace in the league, already with four starts over 100 pitches this season. The matchup is neutral and no worse than what any of the other strikeout aces have on this slate, so for me, it’s an easy call with Wheeler as the SP1.

Chris Sale was having some weird struggles early in the season, but the strikeouts were always there, with a swinging strike rate the same as last season and the same great control. He was simply getting BABIP’d in fluky fashion with a .383 BABIP so far this season. Even through the ‘struggles,’ he has 7+ strikeouts in 3 of his last 4 starts and has 100+ pitches in back-to-back games. I have zero concerns here, and he looks like the same trustworthy ace as last season. He’s at a discount because of his slow start, and he’d be my SP2 even if he were $1,000 more on each site.

After Wheeler and Sale, it’s time to wonder if Paul Skenes belongs up with those top two or down beside everyone else. To be clear, there is nothing ‘wrong’ with Skenes; it’s simply a matter of not knowing if the elite rookie season was a bit of an outlier with his 33.1% K rate. In looking at his swings and misses, my lean is that his true strikeout level at this moment is probably more in the 26-29% range. That’s just a guess, and he could be anywhere from the 25% he is at right now to the 33% from last season. Either way, with his control, soft contact, and ground balls added in, he’s an ace. If we didn’t have Wheeler and Sale, I’d be more than happy with him as my SP1. But we can be picky tonight, and I simply don’t think he’s quite as good a DFS pitcher as those other two. He is fully in the pool for any and all formats, but merely the SP3.

Michael King is the upside ace that will probably see the lowest ownership. He’s very close to these other aces in skill set; there is just a bit more risk in his matchup. My first thought here is that we have so many good pitchers that we don’t have to go overboard playing the ownership game, so he’s just going to be a deeper MME flier for me.

Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!