MLB DFS Slate Preview: Friday, July 14
Erik Wardenburg previews the Friday, July 14th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Welcome back! Hopefully, you got to relax and recharge during the All-Star break, as we’re back at it today with a huge 14-game main slate.
We have a weird Shohei Ohtani situation today, as he’s going to accrue SP points on DraftKings, but FanDuel has him listed as an outfielder, so he’ll accrue hitting points there and no SP points.
Tyler Glasnow headlines the SPs today in a matchup with KC, who he had 12 strikeouts against three starts ago. The Yankees headline the offenses today, starting a series in Coors Field against the lefty Gomber.
Update: TB/KC has been PPD!!!!
There are plenty more strong SPs and great offenses to target, so let’s get to some MLB DFS picks and today’s news and notes!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- BOS/CHC is our biggest concern today, as a delay of some sort looks very likely and possibly worse. A large storm system is in the forecast during game time, so timing will be key as far as if they decide to start, then delay when it hits, delaying for a long time from the beginning, or just not even playing. For now, this is a game I’ll likely avoid unless the weather gets significantly better closer to lock, so check for Roth’s update later in the day. Temps in the 70s with 6-10mph wind to center.
- WSH/STL will have scattered storms around first pitch, and the longer they play, the closer they’ll get to potential “game-ending” type of rain. With so many games on the slate, this is another one I’ll likely avoid, as the risk of a shortened game seems too great at the moment. Temps in the low 80s with 6-9mph wind out to left.
- LAD/NYM is another problematic spot, as models show a large storm complex moving in around game time. If that forecast stays accurate throughout the day, it would likely be problematic to the game playing, but check for an update closer to lock. Temps in the high 70s with 9mph wind out to left.
- TBR/KCR will likely have a delayed start with storms clearing after the first pitch and temps in the high 70s with 8-14mph wind in from left. MIA/BAL is looking at scattered showers and storms, and like the other rain games, we can’t rule out the forecast getting worse or better until closer to lock. Roth does have some optimism this game can play eventually, with temps in the low 80s and 5-8mph wind out to left. Update: TB/KC has been PPD!!!!
- MIL/CIN and CHW/ATL are today’s best hitting conditions with temps in the high 80s and 50%+ humidity.
- NYY/COL will be in the 70s with 10mph wind in from right. HOU/LAA will be in the 70s with 5mph wind out. MIN/OAK will be in the 60s with 4-8mph wind out. SF/PIT will be in the low 80s with 5mph wind out to left.
- Today’s dome games are DET/SEA, CLE/TEX, and ARI/TOR.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Yandy Diaz is going on the paternity list, and Aranda is back with the Rays. Josh Lowe is a strong candidate to take the leadoff spot, while either Raley or Aranda should handle 1B.
- Anthony Rendon avoided the IL with his knee injury and should be back in the Angels lineup, while Trout remains out on the IL.
- The A’s are calling up Tyler Soderstrom and Zack Gelof. Soderstrom is a lefty C/1B, so he should be in the lineup most days against righties, while Gelof is a righty infielder and will start against lefties and possibly against righties too like today.
- The Yankees currently have a huge 6.45 run total in Coors Field and are the clear top stack of the slate. The Rays also have a big run total around 5.8 currently and are my next favorite stack against Marsh. The Braves are my next top stack hitting at home in great weather against Kopech, who has been pretty mediocre over his last three starts with just 12 total strikeouts and 6 ER. The Brewers also get great hitting weather in Cincinnati and are my fourth top stack against Ashcraft. Toronto rounds out my top five stacks at home against Nelson.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- With Ohtani off the table for SP on FD, Tyler Glasnow ($10,000) is easily my top choice for cash games. Every SP I’d even consider for cash games is above $9k today, so I’ll gladly pay the few hundred extra for Glasnow in a matchup with KC he dominated a few starts ago. I’m expecting plenty of run support behind him for a likely win. If I were to go with someone else then Luis Castillo ($9,700) would be my choice at home against Detroit.
Update: TB/KC has been PPD!!!!
- So the Yankees are pretty much free on FanDuel today as their entire projected lineup is $3,200 or less. Like most people, I will have four of their bats in my main build as they are in too good of a spot to not fit as many as possible at these low salaries. Volpe ($3,000), Torres ($3,000), Stanton ($3,100), and Bader ($3,200) is the stack I’m going with in cash games, but I don’t mind going with Donaldson ($2,600) for even more salary savings, or even Rizzo ($3,100) in the L/L matchup if you want a lower-owned option.
I like taking higher than 1.5 total bases for Volpe on Underdog today, and if you’re a new user, make sure to use RG’s Underdog Fantasy bonus code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- The Braves are priced correctly, with four of their top five hitters above $4k, so I’ll likely pick and choose one or two bats from them in my main build, depending on positional needs. Austin Riley ($3,600) is the best value in their lineup and should be easy to fit if you don’t go with Donaldson at 3B.
- The Rays have some nice value options with the platoon advantage in Luke Raley ($3,300) and Brandon Lowe ($2,700). If you have the salary and positional availability, then Franco ($3,800) and Arozarena ($3,700) are two of the highest upside plays of the slate as both bring HR and SB upside at very affordable salaries. Josh Lowe ($3,500) is in play as well, especially if he hits leadoff today.
Update: TB/KC has been PPD!!!!
- MIL and TOR are other offenses I’m looking at for cash games, so values like Contreras ($2,900), Adames ($3,100), Winker ($2,200), Belt ($2,800), Chapman ($3,100), and Varsho ($2,800) are all worth keeping in consideration if you need to fill a spot or two in your main build.
- Even with Ohtani ($10,900) available on DK as an SP option, I’m still going with Glasnow ($10,300) and Castillo ($8,900) as my cash game combo, as Castillo is way underpriced, and I think Glasnow has a higher ceiling against KC than Ohtani does against HOU.
- The Yankees are still very affordable on DK, but at least they aren’t completely free like FD. Volpe ($4,000), Bader ($4,300), and Donaldson ($3,500) are the best values, while Torres ($5,300), Stanton ($5,000), and Rizzo ($4,800) are all in play at pretty cheap prices considering the spot they’re in today. I’ll almost certainly go with 4-5 of their righty bats in cash games.
- Riley ($4,900) remains the best value from ATL, and if you want even cheaper exposure, look to Ozuna ($3,900) or Rosario ($3,700). Raley ($4,200) and B. Lowe ($3,900) are still my favorite p/$ bats from the Rays, and from MIL & TOR there are a few strong extreme salary savers in Winker ($2,500), Tapia ($2,400), Belt ($3,100), and Varsho ($3,300).
- Some more value bats I like today include Jesus Sanchez ($2,800), Wilmer Flores ($3,200), Jack Suwinski ($3,800), Jarren Duran ($3,600), Jonathan Aranda ($2,000), CJ Abrams ($2,900), Edouard Julien ($3,100), Alex Kirilloff ($2,400), and Eugenio Suarez ($2,700).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!