MLB DFS Slate Preview: Monday, May 1
Erik Wardenburg previews the Monday, May 1st slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
It’s a new month and a new week kicking off with a solid six-game slate. The Giants and Padres put on a show in Mexico over the weekend, but both are teams are back in the states with projected run totals below 10 again.
We have a nice combo of solid pitching options and plenty of offenses to target, so let’s start the month strong and get to some news and MLB DFS picks!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- CLE/NYY and CHC/WSH are very similar today as both are looking at spotty showers that could cause a delay. Both are also in the 50s with 10mph wind, blowing right to left for NY and blowing out for WSH.
- TOR/BOS, CIN/SDP, and PHI/LAD are all in the 50s as well, with Boston seeing the most wind at 10-15mph out to left center.
- SF/HOU is today’s lone dome game.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are more likely to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Aaron Judge is going on the IL with his hip injury. Jake Bauers will avoid the IL after his MRI came back clean, but also remains out of the lineup. Guys like Calhoun, Cabrera, Cordero, Kiner-Falefa, and Hicks will continue to get most of the DH/OF starts until Judge or Bauers return.
- Triston Casas got a couple of games off to reset mentally, and is back in there today for Boston. Kike Hernandez is also back after missing a couple games with an ankle injury.
- Mike Yastrzemski left yesterday’s game with a hamstring injury and is going on the IL. This will open the door for more OF starts for Wade, Sabol, and Wisely against righties. Brandon Crawford is also going on the IL with his calf injury so Estrada will get most of the SS starts.
- Ian Happ is getting a rest day for the Cubs, so Bellinger will move up to 3rd in the order and Madrigal will join the starting lineup hitting 9th. Wil Myers remains on the Covid-IL for the Reds.
- Miguel Rojas is off the IL but won’t start tonight, as Betts is playing SS. I’d expect Rojas to start at SS tomorrow against a lefty.
- George Springer has been scratched with an illness, so Bichette moves to leadoff and Biggio joins the starting lineup.
- The Blue Jays are by far my favorite stack today against Kluber in Boston. They’re currently projected for around 5.5 runs, are hitting in pretty good conditions with 10-15mph wind blowing out, and are at very affordable salaries, especially on FanDuel. The Padres and Dodgers are my next favorite stacks, as both are at home facing mediocre righties and are sitting at run totals above five as well.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Luis Garcia ($9,600) looks like the clear cash game SP today, at home against the Giants, who currently have just a 3.6 run total. Garcia is coming off two fantastic starts against TBR and TOR, much better offenses than SF, in which he allowed 0 ER and had 16 strikeouts. If I were to go cheaper at SP, then Blake Snell ($8,000) would be my choice, as he gets a home matchup with the Reds, who have the lowest projected run total of the slate at 3.33. Snell has had some tough matchups with ATL, NYM, and CHC lately, so if he doesn’t put up a solid line against the Reds today, I would become very worried about him for the rest of the year.
- George Springer ($3,100) is the first bat I’m locking into cash games, as he’s about $400-600 too cheap hitting leadoff on my favorite offense of the slate. As an added bonus for Springer today, in 24 career ABs against Kluber he’s hitting .375. Daulton Varsho ($3,000) is the next TOR bat I’m locking in as he’s just too cheap hitting in the heart of the order, and I will almost certainly have 1-2 of Bichette, Guerrero, and Chapman depending on positional needs. (Update: Springer is now OUT with an illness)
- The Padres are where I’m going next, as they have two bats that are just egregiously underpriced. Juan Soto ($3,400) got priced up around $4k over the weekend for his two games in Mexico, then dropped back down to this current price even though he’s in a smash spot against Weaver. Like Soto, Manny Machado ($3,000) went from ~$4k over the weekend to pretty much free, and I expect him to be one of the highest-owned bats of the slate. Weaver is allowing a .318 average to righties over his last 100+ RH batters faced, and if you needed more incentive to play Machado he’s 7 for 18 career against Weaver with 2 HRs and just two strikeouts. Jake Cronenworth ($2,900) is also worth mentioning at a fantastic price for more cheap SD exposure.
- Some other cheap bats I like today include Kyle Schwarber ($3,200), JT Realmuto ($2,800), Jason Heyward ($2,600), Alex Bregman ($2,900), Joey Meneses ($2,600), Steven Kwan ($3,100), and Anthony Volpe ($2,900).
- Luis Garcia ($9,200) remains my SP1, while Snell ($8,500), Gore ($8,100), and Smyly ($7,800) are all in play as potential cash game SP2s at those prices. Right now I’m still leaning Snell just based on him having the best matchup with CIN, but if you need the extra salary then Gore and Smyly should both be solid plays, and I would make sure to have each in GPPs if not your main build.
- Jason Hayward ($2,500) is standing out as a top value bat today, as he should hit 5th on one of my favorite offenses today. Heyward is 5 for his last 6 with two doubles, two walks, and no strikeouts over his last three games, and is one of the few bats under $3k that I’d be looking to use for extreme value in my main build. Triston Casas ($2,400) and Brandon Belt ($2,300) are two of the other extreme value bats I’d consider at the 1B position.
- Springer ($5,100) and Varsho ($4,300) remain my favorite p/$ targets from TOR, and Matt Chapman ($5,600) would be my next target between him, Bichette ($5,900), and Vlad ($6,100). Check out our Underdog Fantasy promo code for new signups, where I like taking higher 1.5 hits+runs+rbis for Varsho today. (Update: Springer is now OUT with an illness)
- Soto ($5,200) and Machado ($5,000) remain reasonably priced, and I’ll likely have at least one in my main build, while Cronenworth ($3,900) is only 1B eligible but still a top value option.
- Volpe ($3,700), LeMahieu ($3,800), and Rizzo ($4,300) make for a solid Yankees mini stack for cheap. At the same time, the Nationals have a bunch of super cheap bats if you need another one-off value bat in your main build or want to load up at SP and another high-priced offense in a GPP lineup.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!