MLB DFS Slate Preview: Thursday, April 27
Erik Wardenburg previews the Thursday, April 27th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Just a five-game main slate today starting at 6:40PM EST, and there aren’t any West Coast games, so NYY/TEX is the final game of the slate starting at 8:05PM EST. We have a good variety of aces and high-upside cheap SPs today, along with plenty of top bats I will be making some MLB DFS picks from, so let’s get to it!
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MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- KC/MIN is the only game with potential rain, but it would be scattered showers at worst, and for now, this game is expected to play uninterrupted.
- BAL/DET, TBR/CHW, and WSH/NYM are all pretty similar, with temps in the 50s and little wind. NYY/TEX is the lone dome game although the roof will be open today.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Austin Hays will be out today and likely another game or two as he deals with a hand injury, so Ryan McKenna will start for him and hit 8th. Mullins will hit leadoff even against a lefty.
- Javier Baez was hit in the hand by a pitch yesterday and is out of the lineup today. Zach McKinstry hit leadoff yesterday and against another righty today he’ll remain in the leadoff spot.
- Grandal is back in there after sitting with back spasms last game, and against the lefty McClanahan the White Sox are going with the lefty Benintendi at leadoff.
- The Nationals finally get to face a lefty, as it feels like forever since they have. We should see guys like Stone Garrett and Michael Chavis in there.
- Josh Jung was hit by a pitch in his hand yesterday and left early, while Travis Jankowski also left early with a hip injury after banging into the outfield wall. Both are out today, so Robbie Grossman will hit second, while Duran will start at 3B and hit 6th.
- The Mets are my favorite stack today, as they’re the only team with a projected run total above five currently. They’re at home and facing a low strikeout righty in Trevor Williams, and at their currently salaries, I will likely have at least three of their bats in cash games. The Orioles are my next favorite stack against the lefty Wentz, who they faced five days ago and put up 5 ER through the first four innings. The Twins are my third favorite stack at home against Greinke, who is still a decent pitcher but has allowed 11 ER and 5 HR’s over his last three starts.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Gerrit Cole ($11,600) is usually going to be the top pitching option on any slate, and today is no exception. He’s coming off his worst outing of the year against Toronto, so he’ll be looking to get back in Cy Young form and put up a big line against Texas. He is extremely pricey but I will still try to fit him in cash games, although Joey Lucchesi ($8,300) is a much cheaper option I’m considering as he faces a weak Nationals offense and just showed his elite upside last game going for almost 60 FP. The $3,300 in savings will really help you load up on expensive Mets bats, and his ownership will be a fraction of what Cole’s will be. McClanahan, Cease, Gibson, Mahle, and Heaney are all strong plays as well, and I will make sure to have exposure to all of them in GPPs.
- Brandon Nimmo ($3,400) and Starling Marte ($2,800) are my top p/$ plays of the slate, as they’re hitting 1-2 on my favorite offense today and both bring power and SB upside. I will also do my best to fit in both Lindor ($3,800) and Alonso ($4,200) for a full Mets stack in cash games, as I think they are in the best situation as a team today facing a very mediocre SP in Williams.
- Ryan McKenna ($2,100) is a solid extreme value option, especially if you are using Cole as your SP and need the salary savings. Anthony Santander ($2,700) and Ramon Urias ($2,800) both come at great prices as well if you want more cheap BAL exposure.
- The Twins are another team that offer some great value bats, starting with Byron Buxton ($2,900), who should never be under $3k. Buxton is starting to heat up with two HR’s over his last five games, and just one strikeout over his last three. In 15 career AB’s against Greinke, he’s hitting .400. Correa ($2,800), Larnach ($2,800), and Miranda ($2,500) are all solid value options as well who will really help you fit in Cole and other expensive bats.
- I’m really not loving any other offenses today, but if you need some more one-off value options I’d look at Anthony Volpe ($2,800), Gleyber Torres ($2,900), MJ Melendez ($2,700), and Vinnie Pasquantino ($3,000).
- Joey Lucchesi ($6,400) is mis-priced badly in my opinion, as he only went up $1k in price after going for over 34 FP last game. He draws a similarly weak opponent today (WSH) as his last start (SF), and at this cheap of a salary I will absolutely be using him as my SP2 in cash games. Gerrit Cole ($11,200) will likely be my SP1, although the price of Kyle Gibson ($7,400) is making him extremely tempting, especially as he draws the same matchup with Detroit who he just dominated five days ago.
- Ryan McKenna ($2,000) remains a solid salary saver, especially if you end up going with Cole over Gibson and need a little extra savings. Ramon Urias ($3,300) is one my favorite value bats at the 2B/3B spots.
- With Lucchesi at SP, it’s extremely easy to fit in Alonso ($6,100), Lindor ($5,300), and Nimmo ($4,600), while Marte ($5,400) isn’t a priority for me at that price compared to how cheap he is on FD.
- Trevor Larnach ($3,400) and Jose Miranda ($2,800) are top p/$ options from the Twins, while Vinnie Pasquantino ($3,700) remains at a great price if you want cheap KC exposure. Volpe ($3,800), LeMahieu ($3,700), and Peraza ($2,600) are some cheap options from the Yankees that I’ll try to have exposure to in GPPs.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!