Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Friday (August 18)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Had a nice little win streak over on ScoresAndOdds snapped by Reid Detmers on Wednesday. Got me thinking about the best ways to lose bets. Would you rather miss by the hook or be completely wrong? Once Detmers blew past his outs prop (I had the Under), I was rooting for the no hitter. Somehow that would’ve been better than a close loss.
The Perception of Milwaukee vs. Andrew Heaney’s Volatility
Remember when lefties facing the Brewers were automatic plays? Not anymore. Milwaukee is 26th in wRC+ and 3rd in K% vs. LHPs on the season. But since the start of July, they’re 9th in wRC+ and 21st in K%. That’s a massive improvement.
Heaney opened August with two scoreless outings before leaving his last start after just 1.1 innings due to illness. He’s now up to four scoreless starts since the beginning of July, but he’s allowed 14 ER in his other three outings (excluding the brief appearance last week).
Heaney continues to give up plenty of barrels (10th percentile), and the issue is he isn’t missing enough bats to get away with it like he did last year. He spiked a 35.5% K% in 2022, but he’s back down to 24.4% this season, more in line with his career numbers.
SUMMARY: I’m buying into this new version of the Brewers. The right-handed contingent of William Contreras, Willy Adames and Mark Canha makes for a solid stack. I’ll add Christian Yelich where salary allows, plus Carlos Santana to fill first base on DraftKings.
Xzavion Curry’s Loud Contact vs. Detroit’s Upstart Offense
Curry has a decent ERA (3.39) but a bloated xERA (5.15) between the bullpen and the starting rotation. It’s easy to see why the expected numbers are much worse, as he’s been hit incredibly hard. He’s 1st percentile in average exit velocity and 4th percentile in hard-hit rate.
Detroit hasn’t been a pushover on offense either. They’re 18th in wRC+ vs. RHPs since the start of July and they’re up to 8th this month. Youngsters Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter have turned this into a respectable lineup.
The Tigers are reasonably priced and make sense as a stack or as one-offs.
SUMMARY: Curry is someone I’m looking to target with bats. Not sure I’ll go full stack, but love getting at least two of Greene/Torkelson/Carpenter in there as needed.
Pablo Lopez’ Strikeout Upside vs. Spencer Strider’s Cost
Lopez stumbled out of the All-Star break with a 7 ER clunker against Oakland, but he’s been on fire since then. In his last five starts, he has a 1.45 ERA and a 35:4 K:BB. Lopez is toting a career-high 30.0% K% and has punched out 7+ in 4-of-5 starts.
Pittsburgh has climbed to 6th in strikeout rate vs. RHPs since the start of July. Today’s projected lineup has a 26.5% K%.
No one has Strider’s strikeout upside, but Lopez might be in the same realm tonight. Is he close enough to make the healthy discount worth it?
SUMMARY: Give me the cheaper Lopez. I’ll roll the dice on fading Strider on DraftKings for an extra $2K to spend on hitters. Their prices are closer on FanDuel, so Lopez is not as much of a priority.