Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Friday (July 7)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Alek Manoah is back! Not on the main slate today but definitely intriguing. Pretty surprising that Toronto only gave him two “rehab” starts. Guess it was a quick fix?
Bailey Ober’s Workload vs. Baltimore’s Solid Offense
Ober has emerged as an anchor of Minnesota’s rotation, leading a group that has the best ERA in the league. He’s allowed more than 3 ER in just one start all season and he’s gone 6 or more innings in 5-of-6 starts.
Ober’s production places him among the aces on today’s slate, but you’ll notice his projection isn’t in line with the Gallens and Castillos of the world. It’s all about volume. We have Ober at 86 pitches today and he’s averaged just under 90 this year. Ober’s thrown 90+ pitches twice since the start of June.
He has to be extremely efficient to work deep into games, kinda like he was against Baltimore last time out. Seven scoreless innings and two baserunners should get our attention, but again, it was on just 85 pitches. The Orioles are a borderline top 10 offense vs. RHPs since the start of June. Today’s projected lineup has a solid .327 wOBA against righties.
SUMMARY: Ober is the fourth-most expensive SP on FanDuel and it’s hard to click his name over Gallen/Castillo/Burnes. But at $8.3K on DraftKings? That’s too cheap. He’s an excellent option over there.
Mickey Moniak’s Approach vs. Tony Gonsolin’s Declining Ks
Do you know who leads the Angels in ISO vs. RHPs? It’s not Ohtani or Trout. Or Renfroe or Rendon. Not even Ward. It’s Mickey Moniak! He’s rocking a .354 ISO and a .433 wOBA against righties, although it comes with a massive 32.5% K% and non-existent 1.7% BB%.
Good thing Gonsolin is down to a career-low 19.0% strikeout rate. He’s allowed 15 ER over his last three starts.
LA’s projected lineup has a bloated 23.7% K% against RHPs, but a solid .180 ISO and a .328 wOBA.
SUMMARY: Gonsolin is unlikely to exploit Moniak’s contact issues, so *he’s a great place to start lineups today.” Don’t hate the full stack either, as it’s inexpensive (except Ohtani) and should be minimally owned.
New York’s Struggling Offense vs. Jameson Taillon’s General Struggles
Classic stoppable force vs. moveable object situation.
The Yankees are 29th in wRC+ vs. RHPs since Aaron Judge hit the IL in early June. Taillon has allowed 4+ ER in 9-of-14 starts. Lefties have destroyed him (.346 ISO and .452 wOBA) but New York’s projected lineup only has two of them (Anthony Rizzo and Billy McKinney).
There’s value here, one way or the other. I’ll side with the Yankees at home.
SUMMARY: Rizzo + McKinney make for a decent two-man stack. You can throw darts at Giancarlo Stanton and/or Josh Donaldson to round it out.