Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Friday (June 23)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
The 1st-place Reds are still +360 on FanDuel to win the NL Central. Every team is plus money right now. Definitely value there if you have a lean (give me Cincinnati).
Brayan Bello’s Sinker vs. Chicago’s Scuffling Offense
Bello’s numbers are decent on the surface, and they’re excellent if you remove his first start of the year. The Angels got to him for 5 ER over 2.2 IP in his season debut. Since then? Bello has a 2.86 ERA and 3 ER or less in all 10 starts.
The sinker has been key to Bello’s bounceback from a rough rookie season. It was his most-used pitch in 2022 and it’s still his top offering this season, but with polar opposite results. Bello’s sinker was annihilated for a .402 AVG and a .526 SLG last year. It’s held hitters to a .235 AVG and a .370 SLG in 2023.
He’s throwing it slightly differently, trading in a tick of velocity (down to 95.1 MPH from 96.3 MPH) for more horizontal movement (up to 18.3 inches from 17.2 inches). An inch of horizontal movement might seem minor, but it can be significant. Bello’s sinker now horizontally moves 14% more than average, up from 8%.
The adjustment has also helped Bello control the sinker better. It’s zone rate rose to 57.9% this season, up from 50.7% in 2022. Bello’s trimmed the walk rate from a below-average 10.1% to a slightly above-average 7.8%.
SUMMARY: Lot of info there. Main takeaway is Bello has taken tangible steps to improve his most-used pitch. The White Sox are a bottom five offense vs. RHPs in June. I will plan to be above the field on Bello today.
Logan Gilbert’s Expected Stats vs. Baltimore at Home
Gilbert has improved in basically every metric this season compared to 2022:
- Strikeout rate: 22.7% -> 26.0%
- Walk rate: 6.4% -> 5.0% (92nd percentile)
- Hard-hit rate: 45.6% (5th percentile) -> 41.0%
- Average exit velocity: 91.0 MPH (3rd percentile) -> 89.8 MPH
He was walking a fine line between the hard contact and mediocre strikeout rate last season, but he fixed all of it! And yet, it’s a 4.31 ERA compared to 3.20 last season.
The xERA is better of course, 3.64 vs. 4.11 in 2022. Unfortunately, we don’t get points for expected stats.
Camden Yards has morphed into a pitchers’ park with the addition of the massive wall in left field, yet the Orioles are a better offense at home. They’re middle-of-the-pack against RHPs overall, but 6th in wRC+ vs. righties at home on the season and 1st in June (small-ish sample).
SUMMARY: I respect this Baltimore offense, but Gilbert’s underlying numbers are too good to ignore. He’s not getting nearly enough attention on this slate and deserves to be right up there with the Musgrove/Webb/Bassitt group in terms of ownership.
Grant Neiffer is all over Gilbert and the Mariners today, with two prop plays and a moneyline pick over at ScoresAndOdds.
San Francisco’s Matchup vs. Opportunity Cost
Zach Davies is the worst pitcher on the slate. Any other day, the Giants would be a chalk stack. But we have a Coors Field game, Toronto against James Kaprielian, San Diego against Patrick Corbin and Texas in Yankee Stadium.
Teams are going to get overlooked, there’s only so many lineup spots. No San Francisco hitter projects for more than 7% ownership.
Despite his 7.11 ERA, Davies has only allowed three HRs in 31.2 innings. This is a full stack situation. The first five hitters in San Francisco’s projected lineup all have above-average wOBAs and ISOs against RHPs. Thairo Estrada is the only one who might be cost-prohibitive.
SUMMARY: San Francisco is my favorite low-owned stack today. They have the upside to compete with the other top options on this slate.