Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Friday (September 1)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
It was 63 and breezy when I stepped out of the house today, which means it’s officially Hoodie and Shorts SZN. Cheers to those who partake.
Michael Wacha’s Perception vs. Struggling San Francisco
Maybe it’s just me, but I never click Wacha’s name when building lineups. It always feels like he’s either a couple bucks too expensive or lacking the upside of the names around him.
But he’s kinda been awesome. And for quite some time. Prior to giving up 4 ER to Milwaukee last time out, Wacha hadn’t given up more than 2 ER since April. He missed a few weeks with an injury in July, but that’s still a run of a dozen extremely solid starts.
Wacha’s xERA suggests he’s been pitching above his head, but this isn’t the matchup to bring on the regression. San Francisco was dead last in wRC+ vs. RHPs in August and it wasn’t close. The Giants had a .600 OPS and a .097 ISO last month against righties. Just dreadful stuff.
SUMMARY: Today is the day I break the seal on using Wacha. He’s priced below the aces on FanDuel and is a sturdy SP2 option on DraftKings. DK is especially intriguing, because he’s slightly above cheaper names that will be more popular (Paxton, Sandoval, Rodon).
Red-Hot Rays vs. Cal Quantrill’s Shifting Skills
Is it possible the Rays will be low-owned today? Only the Lowe boys are showing up above 6% pOWN right now, and they’re still under 10%.
Tampa Bay was behind only Philadelphia in wRC+ against righties in August. Six hitters in today’s projected lineup have .345+ wOBAs and four guys have ISOs up over .225 vs. RHPs.
Quantrill will make his return after missing time with a shoulder injury. His strikeout rate has declined and his hard-hit rate has increased for four straight seasons, with the K% bottoming out at 12.4% (1st percentile) this season. His 6.45 ERA is supported by a 6.07 xERA (5th percentile).
SUMMARY: This combination of matchup and projected ownership make for an excellent stack. I’ll be targeting Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes and the Lowes along with Luke Raley if he’s in the lineup.
Declining James Paxton vs. Kansas City’s Limited Lineup
Paxton’s return has been a great story. It just seems like he’s out of gas/not fully healthy.
Paxton was amazing through seven starts, with a 32.7% K% and a 15.1% swinging strike rate. A knee issue flared up during his start on June 24, and since then, he’s down to a 20.4% K% and an 11.2% SwStr%. Paxton is up near 100 IP after only throwing 21.2 innings over the last three years.
Kansas City’s offense lacks the power and depth to be a true stack target. They’re 22nd in wRC+ vs. LHPs since the start of July. Paxton shut them down for 5.1 innings a few starts back.
SUMMARY: It’s a good matchup, but I’m staying away from Paxton. He’s projected at double-digit ownership on DK and currently has the third-highest pOWN on FD. Not too interested in the Royals’ offense either, outside of Nelson Velazquez and his .321 ISO vs. LHPs. He’s taking Paxton deep.