Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Friday (September 22)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
One of the last slates to play Cole Ragans and I’m fading him. It’s a shame.
Chris Sale’s Workload vs. Chicago’s Lefty Struggles
If we could guarantee six innings from Sale, he’d probably be the top play on the board. He managed a quality start last time out, his first time reaching 6 IP since returning from injury, but did it on just 81 pitches. We have him projected for 86 pitches today.
The White Sox have been one of the best matchups in the league for left-handers since the start of August. They’re 29th in wRC+, 30th in wOBA and 1st in strikeout rate.
Sale has thrown 90+ pitches twice in seven starts since his shoulder issues. There might be some upside on his current workload projection.
SUMMARY: Sale won’t be sneaky, but I like him ahead of Framber Valdez and Pablo Lopez. He could easily be the highest-scoring SP on the slate if he can get to six innings. The discount from Valdez/Lopez is significant, particularly on FanDuel.
Fading Cole Ragans vs. My Intense Admiration for Him
I’m a founding member of the Ragans Fan Club and have been playing him since the beginning of his breakout with Kansas City. Sadly, today I’m hopping off the train.
He’s still awesome, and I’m still betting his strikeout prop. And he’s had success in this matchup already. But in Houston, facing them in back-to-back starts, with Valdez on the other side … it’s just too much.
The Astros are 1st in basically every offensive stat vs. LHP since the start of August. They’re also 27th in K%. Kansas City is +190 on the moneyline, and that matters when we’re gauging pitcher wins.
SUMMARY: He’s pricey on FanDuel and projected to be heavily owned on DraftKings. I’m fading Ragans today. I hate it, but the spot is just too difficult.
Stacking Against Luke Weaver vs. Stacking Against the Best Bullpen
Weaver’s been bad at every stop this year. He has a below-average strikeout rate, an elevated 6.77 ERA, and a 5.71 xERA to support it. He did make a change in his first appearance with New York, throwing his cutter a season-high 45.9% of the time, but Pittsburgh still got to him for 3 ER in 4 IP.
The problem is the Yankees have the lowest bullpen ERA in the league. The Pirates put a quick three-spot on Weaver, then didn’t score again. A similar scenario would ruin this stack.
The Diamondbacks have been perfectly mediocre against RHP over the past 30 days (15th in wRC+). They’re affordable outside of Corbin Carroll and have options at several positions.
SUMMARY: I’m nervous about the back half of this game, but 3-5 innings of Weaver is too good to pass up. Give me Carroll, Christian Walker and Ketel Marte plus one of the non-Carroll outfielders (Pham, Gurriel, Thomas, etc).