Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Tuesday (April 11)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Brad Keller had a solid start on Friday but the whiffs weren’t there and he fell short with the strikeouts. His updated arsenal featured a new tweak this time with the changeup usage jumping up. Kansas City is making big changes to every pitcher in their rotation, definitely monitor these guys.
Hayden Wesneski’s Sweeper vs. Windy Wrigley
Wesneski threw a sweeping slider more than any other pitch in a limited MLB sample last season (33 innings), holding hitters to a .119 AVG. It accounted for two of his four strikeouts last week against the Reds. The rest of his arsenal struggled, and his 91.7 MPH exit velocity allowed was a far cry from the 84.5 MPH mark he posted in 2022.
The Mariners’ projected lineup has five hitters with a strikeout rate above 21%, including three regulars (Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez and Cal Raleigh) who whiff a ton against sliders specifically (shoutout PlateIQ). But when they make contact, they do damage. Seven of Seattle’s hitters are above average in hard-hit rate vs. sliders.
Complicating matters is tonight’s weather in Chicago. Kevin Roth forecasts winds blowing straight out, a “nice bump to bats in the most wind-sensitive park in MLB.”
Wesneski is oddly expensive on DraftKings, but he’s only the 13th most-expensive arm on FanDuel. Three Seattle bats project for double-digit ownership, so rostering Wesneski would be a nice way to go against the grain. Definitely a GPP play given the blowup potential, but there’s upside here.
Josiah Gray’s Fastballs vs. LA’s Power Bats
Gray’s four-seamer is dreadful. It was his most-used pitch in 2022 and was blasted for a .305 AVG and a .742 SLG. That slugging percentage would’ve been the third-best in baseball vs. fastballs. Basically, every hitter was Yordan Alvarez against Gray’s heater last season.
He worked on a cutter this offseason and succeeded with it in Spring Training. That’s good! But the first cutter put into play this year was deposited into the seats by Matt Olson. Marcell Ozuna also took him yard on it. After throwing the pitch 16.1% of the time in his first start, Gray only went cutter 8.8% of the time in his second outing (a solid performance in Colorado).
The slider is the answer for Gray, as it boasted a -11 run value in 2022 and has held batters to a .188 AVG this season. He threw it more than any other pitch against the Rockies, but it still made up only 33.3% of his output.
Gray gets the Angels tonight. Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani were both top 15 in Run Value vs. fastballs last season. They’re hitting .313 and .333 against the pitch this season, respectively. Love locking in Trout with guys like Taylor Ward (.300 AVG against fastballs) and Luis Rengifo (cheap and eligible at multiple positions) to round out the stack. Can’t use Ohtani as a hitter tonight since he’s pitching but can still grab his home run prop at +305 on Caesars.
Lance Lynn’s Flu Game vs. Corbin Burnes’ Projected Ownership
Burnes is off to a slow start and DraftKings is taking a stand. They priced him at $8.5K, behind five other pitchers. We’re not projecting the masses to be as cautious with Milwaukee’s ace as his pOWN sits above 20% right now.
This is likely a small-sample blip for Burnes, but it’s still 10 ER in nine innings plus a dip in velocity. Maybe there’s something actually wrong here. So how about pivoting to Lance Lynn?
The Giants annihilated the burly right-hander last week, though White Sox pitching coach Ethan Katz said he was battling cold symptoms during the start (h/t Chicago Sun Times). Lynn was solid in his season debut in Houston but saw his velocity drop multiple ticks against the Giants. Seems like the illness played a factor.
Lynn is one of those five pitchers priced above Burnes on DK making him a strong pivot option. Neither matchup is imposing, both guys are on the road, and their projections are within a couple of points. You might as well take the hefty ownership discount.