Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Tuesday (July 18)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Should the Mets be sellers? They salvaged the final game of their weekend series against the Dodgers, but they’ve still lost 4-of-5. Winning the division is out of the question (18.5 GB) and they’re 8.5 games out of the last Wild Card spot. These next couple weeks ahead of the trade deadline will be fascinating.
Anthony DeSclafani’s Splits vs. Cincinnati’s Left-Handed Power
DeSclafani will return from a shoulder injury to face a slumping Cincinnati lineup. He might be just what the Reds need to get going.
Lefties have long been DeSclafani’s kryptonite. He’s given up 30 more HRs to LHBs than RHBs in his career, in just 98 more at-bats. The dingers have actually been even this season (six HR to both sides), but the slash lines look a lot different. Lefties are slashing .289/.318/.471 against DeSclafani, while righties are at .228/.283/.386. LHBs have a massive 50.6% hard-hit rate, although RHBs are still at a healthy 45.8%.
Switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz has been dreadful from the right side, doing all of his damage as a left-handed hitter (.412 wOBA, .247 ISO). Jake Fraley and Will Benson both have ISOs of at least .200 and wOBAs up near .400. Limited sample for Joey Votto, but he has a silly .455 ISO against RHPs.
SUMMARY: I’m loading up on the Reds. Their prices should keep ownership down, and the upside is massive.
With Luke Weaver on the other side, this game is a good option for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday promo. De La Cruz (+460) and Fraley (+450) are my preferred picks.
Tarik Skubal’s Increased Velocity vs. Detroit’s Kid Gloves
Skubal has been nothing short of brilliant after making his long-awaited return from an elbow injury. He’s fired eight scoreless innings over two outings, allowing just two hits and striking out 11.
Skubal’s 4-seam fastball had never sat above 94.4 MPH, but it’s averaged 96 MPH in those two starts. It’s never been a good pitch for him, and he actually faded it for the slider last season. The 4-seamer gave up a ridiculous 22 HRs in 2021 and a hefty .491 SLG in 2022. A few extra ticks could certainly make a big difference. Tiny sample, but half of Skubal’s at-bats ending on a fastball have been strikeouts.
Kansas City is a glorious matchup. The only issue is length. Skubal has thrown 57 and 63 pitches in his two appearances so far. Detroit is being understandably careful with him coming off a major arm injury, and he’s had to be nearly perfect just to get through four innings up to this point.
SUMMARY: I can’t do it on FanDuel with virtually no chance for a quality start. But on DraftKings as a reasonably-priced SP2? Sign me up. THE BAT X has him projected at 83 pitches, that should be enough to make value.
Daniel Lynch’s Price vs. Bryan Woo Chalk
Woo is understandably the chalk option on both sites right now, facing the strikeout-heavy Twins. There are some intriguing names in the same range and I’ll be looking to pivot off Woo.
For some context, I’m mainly a single-entry tournament player. I like to make a couple of stands without getting too crazy, and usually, that means fading SPs who project to be massively rostered. One low-owned stack and a low-ish owned SP is often enough to do some damage in these tournaments.
Lynch has been largely effective in his eight starts, outside of a 7 ER blowup against Cincinnati. He went into the All-Star break riding a four-start stretch of a 2.63 ERA and a WHIP just over 1. The strikeouts have been lacking, but he’s gone at least five innings in every outing.
Detroit is 22nd in OPS and wOBA vs. LHPs. They’re 23rd in wRC+. Today’s projected lineup has a 23.8% strikeout rate. Hard to bank on a win from a Kansas City starter, but the Royals are only slight underdogs (+130 on multiple books).
SUMMARY: It’s boring and probably not a large field tournament play, but there’s plenty of safety here. If Woo’s outing goes like his debut (2 IP, 6 ER), a decent Lynch outing will quickly move you up the leaderboard.