Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Tuesday (June 27)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Brayan Bello has arrived. Another brilliant outing on Friday, trimming his ERA to 3.27. Solid slate for the article with Logan Gilbert shutting down the Orioles and the Giants putting up eight runs.
Garrett Whitlock’s Sweeper vs. Miami’s Top-Heavy Lineup
Bello isn’t Boston’s only breakout starter. Whitlock struggled in April then hit the IL, but is 3-0 with a 3.60 ERA in his five starts since returning to the rotation in late May.
Whitlock has joined the sweeper revolution this season, trading in his slider for a pitch with much more horizontal and vertical break. His slider was knocked around for a .308 AVG and accounted for nearly half the HRs he allowed last year. The sweeper has become his best pitch, limiting hitters to a .167 AVG and generating a massive 49.4% whiff rate.
The sweeper isn’t equipped to get lefties out and Whitlock has allowed a .231 ISO to them. Fortunately, Miami has two zero-power left-handers in Luis Arraez and Joey Wendle. Jesus Sanchez and Jazz Chisholm are dangerous, though the latter is fresh off the IL.
SUMMARY: The Marlins aren’t a pushover on offense, but this is a lineup that can be navigated. Whitlock’s price and recent performance make him a priority on today’s slate.
Julio Teheran’s Soft Contact vs. New York’s Frequent Contact
Can you turn back the clock if you’re only 32 years old? Feels like Teheran has been around forever but he debuted in 2015. His return to MLB action has gone remarkably well through six starts with Milwaukee. Teheran has held opponents to 2 ER or less in every outing and currently boasts a microscopic 1.53 ERA.
It’s been an amalgamation of decent contact suppression for Teheran. He isn’t striking anyone out (23 Ks in 35.1 IP), but he’s slightly above-average in barrel rate (6.1%), average exit velocity (88.2 MPH) and hard-hit rate (33.7%). Nothing crazy, just limiting damage. Teheran’s 3.29 xERA isn’t close to his current mark, but it’s still respectable.
The Mets’ projected lineup doesn’t have a single high-strikeout hitter in it, which might not matter because good things are happening for Teheran when the ball is put in play. New York is 20th in wRC+ vs. RHPs in June.
SUMMARY: The ceiling is low and the opportunity cost is too great on FanDuel. But on DraftKings where you need two SPs? Teheran is a strong option to pair with an expensive arm.
Grant Neiffer is taking the Under on Teheran strikeouts today (3.5 at +124 on FanDuel) and I’m on board.
San Diego’s Pricey Offense vs. Rich Hill’s Splits
Speaking of turning back the clock, 43-year-old Rich Hill has a 3.33 ERA in June. He’s still exploitable of course, particularly with righties (.213 ISO and 53.7% hard-hit rate).
San Diego is 4th in wRC+ vs. LHPs on the season and they’re up to 1st in June. Their projected lineup has a hefty .233 ISO and a .366 wOBA.
The issue is trying to afford the Padres’ bats. Fernando Tatis has the 8th-highest projection on FanDuel with a matching $4.4K price. Manny Machado ($3.3K) and Juan Soto ($3.7K) aren’t cheap and the red-hot Ha-Seong Kim is $3K. It’s even worse on DraftKings, as the first seven hitters in San Diego’s projected lineup are all $4.2K+.
SUMMARY: It won’t be easy, but I’m going to work hard to force San Diego stacks into my lineups. It’s feasible if you save some salary at SP. The upside is huge.