Three True Outcomes: Key MLB Matchups for Tuesday (June 6)
Three True Outcomes highlights a trio of crucial matchups for today’s slate. We might strike out or settle for a walk, but we’re also going to hit our fair share of home runs. Ideally, this article will give your MLB DFS lineups and sports betting card a boost.
Mixed bag for the article on Friday. Kremer pitched well but Wade got him for a HR and Yastrzemski had a solid game. The Padres were silenced by Taillon. And Glasnow was rained out (he did pitch well in the makeup on Saturday).
Baltimore’s Disregarded Offense vs. Freddy Peralta’s Rising Barrels
Peralta’s first five starts were solid, with a 3.77 ERA and just two HRs allowed over 28.2 innings. His next six starts didn’t go as well, as he posted a 5.40 ERA and gave up eight HRs over 31.2 innings.
Peralta has a career-high 9.7% barrel rate this season. After allowing just four barrels in that initial five-start stretch, he’s given up 13 since then. The strikeout and walk rates have also taken a step back (21% / 11%, down from 26% / 7%).
The Orioles are being completely ignored on this slate. None of their hitters currently projects for above 2.5% ownership. This lineup has taken some hits due to injury, but it still has a few potent bats.
SUMMARY: Peralta has the fourth-highest pOWN right now (via THE BAT). I’m taking the other side. Give me some Baltimore hitters at basically zero ownership. Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander and Gunnar Henderson all have above-average ISOs vs. RHPs.
James Paxton’s Resurgence vs. Cleveland’s Contact Rate
How are the Red Sox underdogs today?! Brit Devine was on this one early for ScoresAndOdds and I’m certainly not fading him right now (ridiculous 11-1 run on moneyline picks).
This looks like the vintage version of Paxton, with tons of velocity (averaging 96 MPH on the four-seamer) and strikeouts (33.8% K%). He had one blip against the Angels but has otherwise been excellent.
Shane Bieber’s awful underlying metrics finally caught up to him last week and his 3.72 ERA is still more than a run lower than his 4.89 xERA. And it’s not like he’ll be getting any run support. Cleveland is still bottom three in OPS, wOBA and wRC+ vs. LHPs, although they do make plenty of contact (18.3% K%).
SUMMARY: Paxton is well behind the Gausman/Keller/Musgrove group in terms of pOWN but he deserves to be right up there with the aces. Great opportunity for a quality start and win even if the strikeouts aren’t crazy.
Give me the Red Sox First Five ML at even money on DraftKings as well.
Clarke Schmidt’s Batted Balls vs. Chicago’s Power Bats
Schmidt struggled badly in April, posting a 54% hard-hit rate and giving up seven HRs over 25 innings. He bounced back in May, putting up a 3.52 ERA and allowing just one home run over 30.2 innings. He cut the hard-hit rate to a manageable 41% last month.
Schmidt switched up the batted ball profile when the calendar flipped, generating a 51.2% ground ball rate and a 31.4% fly ball rate in May, a big improvement from the 39% / 42.9% rates he had in April.
The cool thing about ground balls is they can’t go over the fence, so the decline in HRs makes sense. The White Sox were 10th in home runs vs. RHPs in May, but they were bottom five in OPS, wOBA and wRC+. This lineup can be handled if you keep them in the yard.
SUMMARY: Schmidt is under $8K on both sites, and his $7.7K price on FanDuel is particularly intriguing. Mitch Keller and Kevin Gausman are understandably getting all the pOWN but Schmidt offers $3K+ in savings.