MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, April 5th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
This article isn’t about pitching, but there’s a 500-lb. gorilla in the room to address. I’m not sure if this is correct or not, but — for the time being — I’m giving Spencer Strider the Peak Clayton Kershaw treatment until his price tag is extraordinary. I’m not saying that he’s a Hall-of-Famer, but the distance between him and the MLB field is pretty sizable right now, ergo every slate has him far above the rest of the pitcher pool. You’re totally allowed to spend time and energy on whether or not to absorb Strider’s salary and ownership. Personally, I’m resigning from the debating society on it and just playing him, delegating that time and energy elsewhere. And you know what? Though we can’t play exactly whomever we want with Strider in our lineups, we can come pretty damn close in terms of our stack exposure.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Friday, April 5th
BRAVES CHALK
Braves at Tommy Henry
The Braves are always highly owned. Against a lefty, they’re not only more powerful, but cheaper, so they go even higher owned. The wrench on the slate is that Strider is such a great spend-up option that we could see the Braves highly owned, yet still under-owned, because it’s difficult to fit Strider in with a full Braves stack, given the salaries of Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley, Matt Olson, and Ozzie Albies.
But we don’t have to play even two of those four for our stacks. Marcell Ozuna has shown more reverse splits but still has a 12.4% barrel rate against LHP since the start of 2023. Adam Duvall is a pinch-hit risk, but that’s baked into his price tag, and if the Braves curb-stomp Henry early, Duvall could stay in the game with his 15% barrel rate. Michael Harris is a lefty himself but still has a 7.5% barrel rate with a 51.7% hard-hit rate and a ton of speed. The guy who stands out the most to cornerstone our stacks is Orlando Arcia and his 14.1% barrel rate; he’s not cumbersome for the salary cap and hits low enough in the order to have his ownership capped. After these four guys or three of these four guys, we can more likely fit in one or two of Acuna, Riley, Olson, or Albies.
In other words, the full Braves stack is doable. The question is whether or not we want it and how much of it we want.
Henry isn’t good, but he isn’t a total gas can. He doesn’t strike anyone out and walks a ton of guys, and he has allowed a 78.7% contact rate and 1.48 HR/9 over his MLB career (140 IP). His general 28.9% fly ball rate since the beginning of 2023 is also favorable to us. His 7.6% barrel rate allowed over this stretch isn’t terrible though. It’s not enough for me to hit the brakes on the Braves, who — again — should get a ton of contact, but it’s an excuse to go underweight on the field.
If entering three lineups tonight on DK, I’m playing 4- and 5-man Braves stack in at least two lineups with a mini stack in the third, if not going 4+ in all three. On FD, with a single bullet, I’m for sure fitting Strider in with the cheaper Braves full stack. But we can draw a red line on any stack on a 7-game slate because this is baseball. And baseball is baseball.
OTHER CHALKY STACKS
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