MLB DFS Top Stacks: Sunday, July 7th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Happy Sunday! We’ve got the usual 1:35 ET start this afternoon for the main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel. The weather doesn’t look too dicey anywhere, and this is another slate without Coors Field or high-end offenses like the Dodgers or Yankees. This could be another slate with spread-out ownership on the hitting side, though I suppose we should dive right in and find out for ourselves.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Sunday, July 7th
CHALK STACKS
Angels at Hayden Wesneski
Braves vs. Michael Mercado
The RG projections have the Braves coming in with the highest projected stack ownership on both sites. They’re only coming in around 10% on DK and 9% on FD, though, so this is hardly overwhelming chalk. Based on what I’m seeing around the industry, it’s also looking as though the Angels will garner some attention at Wrigley against Hayden Wesneski.
It’s easier to make a case for the Braves based on sheer talent. Even without Ronald Acuna and Michael Harris, this offense still boasts 4 All Star caliber bats right in the heart of the order. They’re set to face rookie Michael Mercado, who’s making just his 3rd MLB appearance and 2nd start for the Phillies.
Mercado is the Phillies’ 30th-ranked prospect, which is to say he’s not much of a prospect at all. This was his first season as a full time starter at the upper levels of the minors, and he posted a 22.8% K rate with an 11.9% walk rate at Triple-A before getting the call. It doesn’t look like there’s much ground ball ability here, and THE BAT projects Mercado for a reverse platoon split from the right side.
Mercado tamed the Cubs in his last start, but I think I could toss 5 scoreless with a couple of punchies against the Cubs. This matchup against Atlanta is a bit more daunting, even if the bottom of the order looks a lil’ ugly right now. Marcell Ozuna (17.4%) and Austin Riley (14.4%) pace the Braves in terms of barrel rate vs. right-handed pitching this season, while Jarred Kelenic (10.8%) may finally be enjoying the breakout we all expected to see several years ago.
It’s weird to see Ozzie Albies (.135 ISO, .300 wOBA) and Matt Olson (.147, .350) struggling a bit against RHP, but the long-term numbers say they’re likely to figure it out eventually. Those are the 5 headliners you’ll want to prioritize in any Atlanta stack, though I don’t mind Travis d’Arnaud (.156 ISO) if you’re looking to fill a catcher spot.
If the current ownership holds, it’s not high enough to get me off of Atlanta. Their 8.9% Opto% on DK is slightly lower than their stack pOWN%, but we’re getting positive leverage on FanDuel with an 11.6% optimal rate that’s about 3% higher than their expected ownership.
The Angels are going into Wrigley, but it doesn’t sound like we’re getting favorable wind in either direction for this one. The Halos will square off against right-hander Hayden Wesneski, whose numbers on the season aren’t terrible by any measure.
Wesneski is sporting a 24.3% strikeout rate with a 9% walk rate across 22 games, though just 5 of those have been starts. The Cubs have been ramping him back up, and he threw 89 pitches in a start vs. the Phillies last week. Wesneski owns a career 3.98 SIERA at the MLB level across 62 appearances dating back to 2022, so we’re not dealing with a gas can here.
Wesneski has whiffed his fellow righties at a 26% clip in his career, though it dips to 19% against lefties. The Angels are projected to throw just 3 lefties his way, and those lefties are Nolan Schanuel, Willie Calhoun, and Mickey Moniak. Not exactly a murderer’s row.
Taylor Ward (.180 ISO), Zach Neto (.192), and Logan O’Hoppe (.198) have the best power numbers in this lineup vs. RHP, though they’ll all swing it from the right side. Brandon Drury has been atrocious so far this season, though we can potentially attribute some of those struggles to injuries. Ditto for Miguel Sano, while Jo Adell has fallen back to earth on the heels of an impressive power surge earlier in the year.
LA has a decent enough 4.41 implied run total in this one, and they’re affordable. O’Hoppe and Ward are the only bats in the projected lineup over $4,000 on DK or $3,000 on FD. Stacking the Halos is an easy way to afford an expensive pitching pairing (Skubal + Eovaldi or Lopez). They also pair nicely with the expensive portion of the Braves stack.
Overall, I do not love it. This is a largely terrible lineup with a .140 ISO and a .285 wOBA vs. right-handed pitching on the year, and Wesneski is decent. If the Angels really are going to be popular, this looks like a team to dodge.
PIVOT STACK
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