MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, April 9th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Our stacks ownership page is currently showing no team projected for more than 11% ownership. With the Diamondback in Coors pushing a total of 7 runs, the Dodgers in a nut spot, and the Braves simply existing, it’s really hard to take those early returns at face value because Arizona is such a strong offense against a terrible pitcher and the Braves daily run to the top of ownership should cap the Dodgers ownership. And therefore the rest of the pool.
That said, there isn’t a spot that should be so chalky that we avoid or even go massively underweight — of the top stacks we’ll discuss today in this space. We’re not discussing the Rays here because Patrick Sandoval doesn’t give up much power and won’t provide a leverage spot. We’re not discussing the Giants because Josiah Gray is less bad than the field seems to believe and he gets a super-solid park bump. We’re also not discussing the Rockies because Merrill Kelly is good enough to cap their production. But these three teams are totally fine if their projected ownership dips under 5% and/or their opposing pitchers get double-digit projected ownership.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Tuesday, April 9th
COORS AND BRAVES
Diamondbacks at Cal Quantrill
Braves vs. Adrian Houser
The Diamondbacks are in Coors against Cal Quantrill. I have a long history of writing on this site that I’m on Team Fade Coors, but the zeitgeist has shifted with the emergence of the Braves legitimately absorbing so much ownership on a daily basis. This has ripped a degree of ownership away from Coors Field. Even for an offense as strong as the D-backs against a pitcher as bad as Quantrill.
Quantrill is probably the worst pitcher on the slate. His 5.57 SIERA is a slate high, his 5.13 K/9 is a slate low, making his 4.5% K-BB rate also the slate’s worst. His barrel rate allowed isn’t remarkably high, but it’s Coors-high — 8.5% overall and 9.9% to lefties.
His near-slate-high 83.4% contact rate should play well for the entire Arizona lineup, especially the top 6 in the order. Corbin Carroll leads the way with his elite power/speed combination, while Ketel Marte is leading off and could see 6 plate appearances, given the D-backs 6.8 implied run total. Lourdes Gurriel is fine and often overlooked. But it’s the double-digit barrel rates of Christian Walker (11%), Joc Pederson (12.6%), and Eugenio Suarez (11.6%) against RHP where we don’t wanna leave money on the table. Add that the Rockies bullpen is trash because no one wants to play there, and the receipts should prove this as the stack of the night.
That said, the Braves are also facing a high-contact pitcher in Adrian Houser, whose slate-high 83.6% contact rate is a recipe for his demise against this unforgiving lineup. The Braves’ collective 11.6% barrel rate against RHP puts every Brave firmly in play, no matter if we’re playing 1 or 150 lineups.
Houser gives up a lot of soft contact to righties. It’s the lefties that are best-suited to punish him (8.2% barrel rate allowed on a 34.2% fly-ball rate). Matt Olson and his 16.2% barrel rate leads the way, with Jarred Kelenic (11.2%), the power/speed combo of Michael Harris (10.4%), and the always dangerous Ozzie Albies (7.6% but a 35.9% fly-ball rate) following. I want all four of them, with the 17.1% barrel rate of Marcell Ozuna against RHP, as a 5-man stack.
But — again — we can play every Brave.
With 11 games on the slate, and the D-backs and Braves likely cannibalizing each other’s ownership, we might be able to go overweight on the field with both and still be able to spread our exposures around in other lineups for MME play. In single-entry and 3-max, I’m not playing the two teams together because there’s a lot of leverage to be had elsewhere, namely via the Dodgers, Mariners, Marlins, Nationals, and Yankees.
PIVOT STACKS
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