MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, August 29
Alex Sonty walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
The Braves are in Coors Field and the sites have done the best they can to price them in a way that regulates their ownership. That said, pitching is stupid-cheap. In this space, we talk stacks, but we have to name the 500-lb. gorilla in the room that is Cole Ragans at $6.0k on DK and $6.6k on FD; Seth Lugo at $7.9k on DK; Zack Thompson at $5.6k and $5.9k; Andrew Heaney at $7.2k and $7.5k; and Alex Cobb at $6.8k and $7.9k. And that’s glossing over Dean Kremer at $7.7k on DK and Luis Ortiz at $5.0k on DK and $6.8k on FD.
The moral of the story being that we can live under $8k at pitcher and play whatever bats we want, despite the high price tags on the Braves.
Braves in Coors Field – Braves at Peter Lambert
Back to pitching for a second, how much of the field is willing to spend down this much? If Monday is an indicator, not as much as we might think, as the Braves were not mega-chalk, despite the Coors Field dynamic. They’re back in Coors Field for Tuesday and we might see more of the same. So, don’t let capped ownership and inflated pricing steer you too far away from the Braves against Peter Lambert.
Lambert is bad. He is 5.13 xERA, 1.77 HR/9, and 11.4% barrel rate allowed are among the worst on the slate. The Braves are by far the best offense in baseball.
We just play everyone here, as Ozzie Albies and Orlando Arcia are the only Braves in the projected lineup with barrel rates under 9.0% against righties. And Albies has had a .246 ISO against righties, while Arcia is among the cheaper of the Braves for a full stack.
Ronald Acuna is the projected player in the stack with his 14.2% barrel rate and 61 SBs, but it’s Matt Olson (17.6%), Marcell Ozuna (16.0%), and Sean Murphy (15.5%) who lead the team in barrel rate. Yet again, back to the pitching, good enough pitchers are cheap enough on this slate to play Acuna without sacrificing the three bigger thumpers.
I’m normally on Team Fade Coors, but I’m not fading Coors when the salaries are scary. Less people are gonna full-stack because of the prices. I wanna jam full stacks in because of the prices.
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