MLB DFS Top Stacks: Tuesday, May 14th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got a full baseball schedule on this fine Tuesday. DraftKings and FanDuel are rolling with 11-game slates, as DK has decided to remove Game 2 of the WSH/CWS doubleheader. Things look spread out on the offensive side of things once again, as no team on the board is pulling more than 10% projected stack ownership.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Tuesday, May 14th
“CHALK” STACKS
Astros vs. JP Sears
Dodgers at Keaton Winn
Brewers vs. Quinn Priester
As was the case yesterday, I think this will be a slate to take a page out of Blender’s playbook and play whoever you want. Certain teams will pull some ownership by default, but this doesn’t appear to be a slate on which any single stack will be “chalk.” Without a game in Coors Field or a bunch of obvious gas cans taking the mound, this looks like another good slate to be casting a wide net with bats.
However, we are seeing a bit of early-day pOWN% on the Dodgers. It’s far from overwhelming, of course, and I’d still play them without caring about whether they’re too popular. They’re in San Francisco to take their swings against Keaton Winn, a young right-hander off to an up-and-down start for the Giants.
Winn hasn’t been a major source of strikeouts early in his MLB career (18.5% K% this season), but he has good control. He’s also kept the ball on the ground at an elite 56.8% clip, so he’s sort of a Logan Webb Jr. out there.
Winn has been a bit reverse-splitsy in terms of strikeouts and home runs allowed. This game is taking place in a pitcher-friendly park, but the Dodgers’ offense is still arguably the most talented in the league top to bottom. Their 4.73 implied run total is among the highest on the slate, and tonight’s projected lineup is boasting a .218 ISO with a .362 wOBA vs. RHP on the season. The projected lineup also has a barrel rate over 11% against RHP, and Gavin Lux is really the only bat in the order with a high ground-ball rate.
Naturally, guys like Shohei Ohtani (31.3% barrels), Mookie Betts (.406 wOBA), Freddie Freeman (13% barrels), and Max Muncy (11.9% barrels) are the headliners in any stack if you can afford them. Affording them is the difficult part, of course, and it’ll require some sacrifices elsewhere. Fortunately, there are a couple of cheap pitchers, Michael Wacha ($6,800 DK, $7,600 FD) and Joe Ross ($5,200 DK, $7,000 FD), who look decent enough to punt with.
Another offense that could garner some attention is Ross’s Brewers, who will be at home against righty Quinn Priester. Priester has only made 4 starts in the majors this season, but the results haven’t been great. We’re talking about a guy with a 12.6% strikeout rate and a 4.51 SIERA, though he has kept the ball on the ground an impressive 62.7% of the time.
Priester’s numbers at the lower levels show the ground-ball stuff is likely for real, but he has also surrendered 6 dingers through his first 4 starts. Lefties (.428 wOBA, 11 HR) have owned Priester early in his career, while he’s walked (12.9%) more of them than he’s struck out (10%).
So, Milwaukee’s lefties will stand out first and foremost. That’ll put Christian Yelich at the top of the wish list. Brice Turang has been leading off lately, while Jake Bauers and Sal Frelick should also crack the order. Unfortunately, most of the Brewers’ righties hit the ball on the ground at above-average rates, which makes the full stack look a little scary. The exception is Willy Adames, who’s also boasting a 51.5% hard contact rate vs. RHP on the season.
Milwaukee’s 4.7 implied run total is right in line with that of the Dodgers. The Astros are coming in at 4.96, which is the highest mark on the board.
The ‘Stros will take a look at JP Sears, a decent, yet homer-prone, lefty leaving the friendly confines of the Oakland Coliseum. Sears allowed 34 bombs in 32 games last season, and he’s yielded 7 across his first 8 games of 2024. The strikeouts (17.8%) haven’t really been there this season either, while he’s also allowed a 9.5% barrel rate.
If any offense is truly chalk, I’d guess it’ll be the Astros. We know both Yordan Alvarez (.385 wOBA vs. LHP this season) and Kyle Tucker (.358 ISO) have no issues with same-handed pitching, while the rest of the lineup is littered with solid righties. Jose Altuve and Jeremy Pena are both off to hot early starts, while we saw Alex Bregman bang a couple of homers last night. Perhaps he’s turning things around. Yainer Diaz is a catcher with legitimate power from the right side, while Jake Meyers (.375 ISO, .405 wOBA) has quietly punished LHP in a small sample early in the season.
It’s hard to imagine Houston not doing at least a little bit of damage against Sears, and they can potentially avoid the talented back half of the A’s bullpen if they put some runs on the board early.
Again though, I’m not at all convinced that any of these stacks will be ultra-popular on such a large slate.
PIVOT STACKS
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