MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, July 10th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got a 10-game slate on DraftKings, while FanDuel has left off Game 2 of the KCR/STL double-header and is going with a 9-game slate. There are no true aces on the slate, which means the stacking options are plentiful.
Let’s discuss some of the top offenses.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Wednesday, July 10th
CHALKY STACKS
Mets vs. Patrick Corbin
Reds vs. Kyle Freeland
Let me start by saying there doesn’t appear to be one chalk offense, as no single stack projects for even 12% pOWN%. Instead, we have a group of about 5 teams that all project somewhere in the 9-12% range.
The Reds are the only team that projects for double-digit ownership on both sites. They are coming off a 12-run outburst against the Rockies and are well-positioned again in Game 3 of the series.
The Rockies will counter with lefty Kyle Freeland, owner of a lofty 6.62 ERA and a lowly 12.9% strikeout rate.
Budding superstar Elly De La Cruz will be taking swings from his weaker side of the plate, at least in his first couple of plate appearances. His game-breaking speed and the low-strikeout matchup still leave him firmly in play.
Spencer Steer has crushed lefties in his career and leads the team with a .230 ISO against lefties since the beginning of last season.
Jonathan India owns a healthy .356 wOBA against lefties and he should hit leadoff.
Jeimer Candelario will take his swings against Freeland from his weaker side of the plate, making him less of a priority if he is in the lineup.
Tyler Stephenson would be the preferred option at catcher over Austyn Wynns, but he may be in line for a day off. His .203 ISO and 13.1% barrel rate versus lefties would be a priority if he is in there.
We should be able to find some playable value down the order, depending on how the Reds decide to line up. Noelvi Marte and Rece Hinds would both be intriguing options if they draw starts. Hinds is off to an incredible start to his major league career, with a home run and multiple hits in each of his first 2 games.
In addition to the weak starting pitcher, the terrible Colorado bullpen is still worth targeting on any given day. They have allowed 11 runs in the first 2 games of the series. Add in the home run-friendly ballpark, and the Reds have immense upside again.
While they are projected to be the most popular offense, their ownership is not at a level where we need to be concerned in any format. If you like them, play them, but there are many other options to like as well.
The Mets are in an excellent position as well, with a matchup against Patrick Corbin and the Nationals. Corbin has long been a target of DFS players looking for run production, as his strikeouts and hard contact numbers have been trending in the wrong direction for multiple seasons. His strikeouts are down to a career-low 15.6%, and the hard contact is up at a career-high 48%.
The Mets have been on an absolute tear recently, and their offense currently ranks sixth in wRC+ (112) and 9th in wOBA (.321). Over the last 30 days, they rank second in both of those categories, with a 133 wRC+ and .351 wOBA.
The ISOs and barrel rates against LH pitching from the top six hitters in the projected lineup are quite impressive:
Francisco Lindor – .260 ISO, 17.6% barrel rate
Brandon Nimmo – .202 ISO, 9.0% barrel rate
J.D. Martinez – .242 ISO, 23.9% barrel rate
Pete Alonso – .278 ISO, 15.2% barrel rate
Francisco Alvarez – .189 ISO, 7.4% barrel rate
Mark Vientos – .323 ISO, 14.9% barrel rate
Tyrone Taylor and Harrison Bader have not seen the production, but both own very respectable barrel rates. Taylor is at 8% and Bader is at an impressive 12.9% barrels, and there should be some positive regression in their production if they maintain that quality of contact.
The ballpark advantage clearly lies with the Reds, but the Mets have been the far better offense against left-handed pitching. Both offenses certainly belong in the top tier, but I would favor the Mets slightly for my single-entry stack among these two options.
PIVOT STACKS
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