MLB DFS Top Stacks: Wednesday, May 8th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Both sites are rolling with 7-game main slates starting at 6:40 PM ET. Chris Sale, George Kirby, and Aaron Civale lead the pool of available pitching options, while the Giants are back in Coors Field to make for at least one obvious spot to target bats. The hitting options beyond that are quite jumbled, and we need to keep an eye on potential weather concerns in Cincinnati.
Let’s dive in and discuss the top offenses to target.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Wednesday, May 8th
CHALK STACK
Giants at Peter Lambert
The Giants have been around a league-average offense this season, with a 96 wRC+ and a concerning .127 ISO that ranks just 24th in MLB.
The ballpark shift from Oracle Park to Coors Field is one of the largest bumps an offense can receive, so that at least helps alleviate the concern for lack of power.
The Giants will face Rockies right-hander Peter Lambert, who owns a 5.66 ERA and a below-average 20% strikeout rate this season. This will be just his 3rd start of the season, as he has worked primarily as a long-reliever out of the Rockies bullpen to this point. He threw 67 pitches in his most recent start, and we should expect something around 80 pitches tonight.
The Rockies have just two lefties in their bullpen, and Ty Blach worked 3 innings in last night’s game. Blach is presumably not available to pitch in this game, so we have just one lefty (Jalen Beeks) to worry about. Beeks is capable of multiple innings, and I do expect him to pitch tonight, so there is still at least some pinch-hit risk here. It is worth noting that the Giants did not use a pinch-hitter in yesterday’s game despite a similar setup, where a righty starter was immediately followed by a lefty long-reliever.
Lambert has been better against righties this season, but they did just as much damage against him as lefties last season. Lambert has struck out just 16.5% of lefties dating back to the start of last season, and I slightly prefer lefties against him given his splits in a small sample this season.
Michael Conforto and Thairo Estrada have been the Giants’ best hitters this season. If we push back the sample to include last season, LaMonte Wade Jr., Wilmer Flores, Mike Yastrzemski, and Matt Chapman are all above-average options. Blake Sabol is included in that group if we were to look at splits against RHP, but he is one bat I would be most concerned about being lifted for a pinch-hitter.
Overall, the Giants are checking in with the highest pOWN% of the slate according to the Top Stacks tool. Although, the rates (about 14% on DK and 16% on FD) are not overly concerning given the 7-game slate. Their Opto% is closely aligned with pOWN% on DK, but on FD, their Opto% is coming in at just 10%.
Ultimately, I would be looking for a pivot in single-entry contests on FD, as ownership generally tends to condense around the top option in those contests. In large-field tournaments, I would be fine being slightly overweight on the Giants on DK and playing them even with the field on FD.
PIVOT STACK
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