MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 10/5/22
We made it! It’s the final day of the regular season with 14 game main slates on both FanDuel and DraftKings as neither site is including the TOR/BAL doubleheader. The playoff bracket is set so all teams have nothing to play for today so expect to see some wild lineups as tons of guys are going to get extra rest. Here’s the playoff bracket below:
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
TBR/BOS will see scattered showers that could get heavy at certain times so a delay of some sort is likely and with nothing to play more they may just decide to not play at all.
WSH/NYM is in a similar situation with scattered light rain all day so we’ll see if they wait for a window, play in some cold and wet conditions, or just decide to call it early.
NYY/TEX, ATL/MIA, DET/SEA, PHI/HOU, and ARI/MIL are today’s dome games.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for TB/BOS are -25.9% while total runs for WSH/NYM are -21.8%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
It’s going to be hilarious just how many regulars end up sitting today so it’s hard to even start building lineups until we start seeing who is playing as we already know Aaron Judge, Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez, and AJ Pollock will definitely be out and this is probably about 20% of the regular starters we will see sit today. It’s basically a wait and see game at this point as projections are going to drastically change throughout the day so my best advice is to put in some dummy lineups now and then as confirmed lineups start rolling re-check the lineups page and LineupHQ as we know who is in.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel it’s going to be hard to recommend any high priced bats as I’m expecting most to either not play at all or only get a couple at bats before being taken out. I’m also not looking to target bats in the TB/BOS or WSH/NYM games as rain will be an issue all game and with nothing to play for the risk of delays or early postponement is pretty high.
With all that said there are going to be plenty of value bats that should see a full games worth of at-bats starting with Aledmys Diaz ($2,000) and Mauricio Dubon ($2,000) who should both hit pretty high in the order with Altuve and Pena out. The Twins are all extremely cheap with Luis Arraez ($3,000) they’re most expensive bat and the trio of Nick Gordon ($2,200), Gary Sanchez ($2,200), and Jake Cave ($2,400) looks like a solid value stack. Lars Nootbaar ($2,500), Corey Dickerson ($2,100) and Juan Yepez ($2,200) are solid plays for STL hitting in the top five of the order.
Louie Varland has been a very average pitcher over his four starts this season so I like using some White Sox bats starting with Elvis Andrus ($2,400) and Andrew Vaughn ($2,700) and potentially Yoan Moncada ($2,500) if he’s in the lineup. The Cubs are also facing a mediocre righty in Ashcraft and with nice weather in a hitter’s park I like targeting a couple bats at the top of their order like Zach McKinstry ($2,200) or Seiya Suzuki ($2,700).
Lastly the Guardians and Dodgers should put up some runs no matter who they put out there with my top plays for the price being Josh Naylor ($2,700), Andres Gimenez ($3,200), Max Muncy ($2,800), Cody Bellinger ($2,700), and Joey Gallo ($2,200).
Looking at DraftKings I still like Mauricio Dubon ($2,100) while Aledmys Diaz ($3,600) is a bit pricier but still in play while Nick Gordon ($3,200), Gary Sanchez ($3,300), and Jake Cave ($2,500) remain a strong cheap stack.
Gavin Sheets ($2,500), Josh Harrison ($2,300), and Mark Payton ($2,100) are my favorite White Sox values and Zach McKinstry ($3,000) and Franmil Reyes ($2,700) are my favorite Cubs for the price. Nootbaar, Dickerson, and Yepez remain solid plays for STL.
Josh Naylor ($4,700) is the cheapest CLE bat that I’d consider while the bottom of the LAD order is where’d I’d look for value in Gavin Lux ($3,700), Cody Bellinger ($3,600), and Joey Gallo ($3,100).
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn